SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MAINZ v DORTMUND and ATHLETIC BILBAO v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V DORTMUND
5.30pm Another weekend rolls around from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE after the most dramatic week! The Champions League Semi-Final had it all, and we start Saturday with one of the clubs involved in the Final as Dortmund travel to take on Mainz in the Bundesliga. Dortmund have been through a lot over the last while – I re-watched the scenes in the last game of the Bundesliga season after they qualified for the Champions League Final. The support from the Yellow Wall and the manager crying; I think their fans deserve a spot in the Champions League Final! Obviously they would have preferred to meet Bayern Munich because they know them so well, but in a late dramatic twist they will face Real Madrid. It will be interesting to see how Dortmund perform here – with RB Leipzig drawing last weekend they are only three points behind in the race for a top four spot again. They would have massively celebrated on Tuesday night, but they have to get their game faces back on here. It’s also a huge game for Mainz – they are sitting in the relegation playoff spot but they are only one point behind Union Berlin.
This is a big weekend in the relegation battle because Koln host Union Berlin at the same time; if Koln managed to beat Union then you’d say Mainz actually have a pretty good chance of staying up. Union Berlin will be expecting to win given Koln are in the relegation zone. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market here; I didn’t expect to see Mainz such clear favourites. The home win is trading 2.32 with Dortmund 3.05 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Obviously Dortmund have had a lot of issues away from home in the Bundesliga this season, but they just got the job done away to PSG! I also accept that Mainz come into this game on a very good run – they are unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games and as I said above, they’ve given themselves every chance of staying up. Earlier in the season it looked like they wouldn’t even get a relegation playoff spot. Of course we might see some changes from Dortmund here after Tuesday night, but I still feel the 2.32 is far too short on Mainz from a value point of view. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I’m happy with the home lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Mainz to beat Dortmund at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiDrt
ATHLETIC BILBAO V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday night with Athletic Bilbao hosting Osasuna. Although Athletic Bilbao finally got back to winning ways last time out against Getafe, a run of four games without a win prior to that still leaves them six points behind Atletico Madrid in their bid to get into the top four. They wouldn’t have been expecting a top four spot at the start of the season – they didn’t even make it into Europe last season so a Copa del Rey win and Europa League football next season is a huge result for Bilbao, that’s something to celebrate. There’s a chance that Osasuna are on the beach early too here – they have lost four games in a row and they haven’t had a difficult fixture list either. They’ve actually lost six of their last seven games, their sole win coming against Almeria who have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season. It is always hard to finish out the season when you sit in 13th like Osasuna with nothing to achieve; lots of clubs see players just mentally switch off. It will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from them here, and Athletic Bilbao have been top notch at home this season too so they face a difficult night ahead.
Athletic Bilbao come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.51 with Osasuna 8.4 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Osasuna have been quite average this season – and they are unlucky to be so far up the table in my opinion. Their average xG created is only 1.15 which is very average – although I suppose not in the bottom five in La Liga so you could argue they are where they should be in the table. That figures drops to just 1.01 away from home, and the 1.51 looks too big to ignore on Bilbao here. They have been exceptional at home this season – they have an average xG created of 1.73 and an average conceded of just 1.03 – very impressive figures. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.51 on Bilbao, however I feel that they can win in style here – they are trading 2.42 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and I feel that looks cracking value in a game that they should control.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao -1.5 goals to beat Osasuna at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilOsa
