SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AUGSBURG v BAYERN MUNICH, BARCELONA v VILLARREAL and AC MILAN v BOLOGNA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm It’s another cracking Saturday from around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have Bayern Munich, Barcelona and AC Milan all in action from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A to enjoy. Will we see a winning treble? All three clubs are odds on to win, but surely we’ll see some drama somewhere! We kick off the day in the Bundesliga with Augsburg hosting Bayern Munich. Last weekend saw a huge change in the Bundesliga dynamic with Bayer Leverkusen taking a seven point lead at the top of the table. This was quickly closed to four points as Bayern Munich won their game in hand over Union Berlin midweek; however the title race is firmly on. Leverkusen scored an injury time winner away to RB Leipzig to win 3-2 while Bayern lost at home to Werder Bremen. That was obviously one of the biggest shocks of the season in the Bundesliga, and it will surely give Leverkusen massive belief that they can actually hold off Bayern. Although after seeing what happened to Dortmund on the final day last season, I don’t think anyone will believe Bayern can be beaten until it’s actually happened.
Augsburg will be reasonably pleased with their efforts this season. They start the weekend sitting in mid-table ten points clear of the bottom three. Considering they finished last season just one point outside the bottom three, they will be delighted with where they are now. Although Stuttgart, who finished below them, are now in the top four! Despite Augsburg sitting in mid-table, anything bar a comfortable Bayern win will be a big shock here. The market is very confident too; Bayern are trading as short as 1.3 at the time of writing with Augsburg 11.0 and the draw is 6.8. Augsburg have been over-performing in front of goal this season; their average xG created is only 1.14 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season. They’ve also been sloppy at the back, and I feel this is a case of how many can Bayern score rather than will they win. Given they have the highest xG created in the whole of Europe this season, I feel Bayern are score a few here! They are trading 1.76 -1.5 goals which looks a very nice position in my opinion. Bayern have won the last three meetings by two goals or more, and that can make that four here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Augsburg at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugByn
BARCELONA V VILLARREAL
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga as Barcelona host Villarreal. Barcelona are a little off the pace in La Liga this season; they started the weekend eight points behind Girona at the top of the table, and probably more importantly seven points behind Real Madrid. They are playing some excellent football but they just haven’t got the results needed this season – their performance is basically in line with their xG figures. They are creating two goals per game and conceding a little over one. Their average xG created is the highest in La Liga, just marginally over Real Madrid but the reality is they are going to find this gap very hard to close. It’s just been one of those seasons for Barcelona! This should be a routine win for them however, and all they can do is tick off the wins and see what happens to the top two. Real Madrid came desperately close to dropping points last weekend only for an injury time winner to come from 2-0 down! Barcelona will play their game in hand next week too, so the gap won’t seem as big. They face a Villarreal side in crisis here, they are closer to the relegation battle than the European spots this season!
With the poor form of Villarreal, Barcelona come into this game as the red-hot favourites. They are currently trading as short as 1.34 at the time of writing, which is the shortest price in La Liga this weekend. If you fancy a surprise, Villarreal are 8.8 and the draw is 6.3. Villarreal haven’t been the same side since Unai Emery left, and just look at the job he is doing for Aston Villa too. Villarreal start the weekend just five points away from the relegation zone – they have been poor going forward but worse at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.67 is the worst defensive record in La Liga this season; they aren’t impressing up front either because their average xG created is only 1.14. They come up against the best attacking side in the league based on the under-lining numbers and I can only see a comfortable win for Barca here. They are trading 1.85 -1.5 goals which looks a very appealing price; I’d have it ten ticks shorter and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Villarreal at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrcVil
AC MILAN V BOLOGNA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday as AC Milan host Bologna. After living the dream for a few weeks and sitting in the top four, Bologna have slipped down to seventh place after two losses and a draw from their last three games. They managed to beat Roma and Atalanta heading into Christmas but obviously they enjoyed Christmas too much, since then they have lost to Udinese and Cagliari with a draw at home to Genoa too. Not exactly a difficult fixture list and very disappointing results. Bologna have tried to keep their games as tight as possible this season and obviously that has brought them success but when they concede a sloppy goal or two, it’s been very difficult for them to bounce back with an average xG created of only 1.31. AC Milan were struggling a little with creating chances at the start of the season, but they have grown in confidence as the season as gone on. They definitely rode their luck at the start of the season and over-performed in front of goal but their average xG created is now the fifth best in Serie A. They are still massively over-performing both up front and at the back, but you have to give them credit for getting results.
AC Milan look nailed on for a top four finish and a Champions League spot. When everyone else around them as dropped points they have kept going. They are too far behind Juventus and Inter Milan to be involved in the title race, but let’s face it the title race isn’t really their level at the moment. They come into this game trading odds on with home advantage. The home win is 1.74 with Bologna 5.5 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. The sides met on the opening weekend of the season with AC Milan running out 2-0 winners – it was a pretty tight game and Bologna actually finished with a higher xG figure. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.85 when I clicked into the market. I know AC Milan have been scoring goals this season, but Bologna have struggled to create chances and have one of the best records at the back this season too. They game screams a very cagey and tight affair without many chances; both sides are going to have to work very hard for goals and I’m very happy to be on Under 2.5 goals at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmBol
