SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MAINZ v BAYERN MUNICH, UDINESE v NAPOLI and RAYO VALLECANO v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm The superb action from Europe continues with another cracking Saturday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have fixtures from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga with Bayern Munich, Napoli and Real Madrid all in action – all three favourites are away from home too, so we’re set for an interesting day in the markets. We kick off the action in the Bundesliga as Mainz host Bayern Munich – there hasn’t been much drama for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this season Bayer Leverkusen have dropped a lot of points already, and Bayern come into this weekend with a six point lead over Eintracht Frankfurt and seven points ahead Bayer Leverkusen. With the gulf in class between the top sides and the rest in the Bundesliga; it’s hard to see that gap closing to be honest. Bayern remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season, and they had a much needed win midweek in the Champions League too. Even with that win, they are still outside the top eight there so they need a strong finish for the advantage in the new Champions League format. Mainz have been a mid-table Bundesliga side this season, but they are known for being strong at home.
As you would expect, Bayern come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.52 with Mainz 6.8 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. When you look at the under-lining numbers for Mainz, they are remarkably similar for the last three seasons – they create more than they concede at home – and then away from home they concede a lot of chances. Despite clearly being stronger at home, I still feel the 1.52 on Bayern is too big to ignore here. Bayern have been faultless this season, but their record at the back has been exceptionally good. Their average xG conceded of 0.62 is the best defensive figure in Europe, never mind just the Bundesliga. They can cope with the attacking power of Mainz at home, and with Bayern having an average xG created of over 2.0 this season they can get the job done here. The 1.52 is worth a confident bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Mainz at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiByn
UDINESE V NAPOLI
5pm Next we move over to Serie A as Udinese host Napoli. Once again, we have an interesting market here – Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.84 with Udinese 5.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Napoli got knocked off top spot last weekend with a 1-0 loss at home to Lazio while Atalanta had already beaten AC Milan on Friday night. It was a poor week for Napoli with Lazio being the thorn in their side knocking them out of the Coppa Italia too! It’s clear that they have been over-performing in front of goal this season, but as I said last weekend it’s hard to begrudge them a few goals from awkward angles after they finished last season in mid-table with the best attacking figure in Serie A. I wouldn’t expect them to last the course in the title race however; they just aren’t playing good enough. Their average xG created is only 1.30 this season, and that’s a mid-table Serie A figure. Napoli have been very strong at the back though – their average xG conceded is only 1.07; the third best defensive figure in Serie A this season and they have been very difficult to score again.
I would expect to Udinese to have problems scoring here – their average xG created is only 1.21 which isn’t an impressive figure – that’s mid-to-low table standard. Udinese are also conceding more chances than they are creating this season, and they’ve been on a poor run at the moment. They managed to win their last game to break a run of five games without a win (four losses) but that came against Monza who have been very poor this season and sit in the relegation zone. I have to say that the 1.84 on Napoli is a very tempting bet here – I know they aren’t exactly firing up front, but they are grinding out a lot of results. Another option is Both Teams Not To Score at the same price as the Napoli win. Napoli have been so solid at the back I do feel that they can keep a clean sheet here. However, with both bets trading at the same price, I marginally prefer the Napoli win as that offers more value in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Udinese at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiNpl
RAYO VALLECANO V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday from Europe as Rayo Vallecano host Real Madrid. We’ve had a lot of movement at the top of the table in recent weeks in La Liga – Real Madrid managed to close the gap on Barcelona to one point with a game in hand as Barcelona went three games without a win, then Real Madrid lost to Athletic Bilbao, but then Barcelona dropped points last weekend. All that means Barcelona are now two points ahead, but Real Madrid have a game in hand which is against Valencia who sit in the relegation zone. This is a game that Real Madrid will be expected to win on paper, but they have dropped points away from home this season and Rayo Vallecano have been solid at the back this season. It’s hard to a surprise to see Real Madrid as the odds on favourites here – Los Blancos are trading 1.62 with Rayo Vallecano 6.2 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Real had a superb win midweek away to Atalanta in the Champions League – it’s always the case that Real get the job done when their backs are against the wall!
They are still in a tricky position in the Champions League, but it would be a shock if they didn’t go into the playoffs. Rayo Vallecano are your classic mid-table La Liga side this season – their average xG created is 1.34 which is a mid-table figure and then they are just marginally conceding less chances. That performance level usually lands you in mid-table in any major European league to be honest. Obviously Real have been sloppy at times away from home this season, and they have had issues with the system too – Mbappe has got the blame most times for his work rate off the ball. Issues like that always come up away from home, and might be a problem here. Rayo Vallecano have tried to keep their games exceptionally tight this season – this has cost them going forward and I like Under 2.5 goals here at 2.1. I’d have this as the favourite in the goals market, but I’m happy to keep stakes small to finish the day.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RyoRma
