SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s top Bundesliga / Serie A / La Liga games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLFSBURG V DORTMUND
2.30pm It’s already been a fantastic week in Europe! We’ve had some wonderful Champions League fixtures, and it’s also been nice to land some Max Bets too! All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Saturday, so hopefully we can keep the good form rolling! We have some excellent fixtures today and we start in the Bundesliga with Wolfsburg hosting Dortmund. Bayern Munich really opened the door for Dortmund last weekend with a shock loss, and now Dortmund are just one point behind at the top of the table. Without being too dramatic about the situation, they really can’t afford to drop points here and lose that momentum – the Bundesliga title race could actually be close this season which would be fantastic viewing, but Dortmund need to keep winning. This will be a tricky fixture as Wolfsburg are a rock solid side, and it’s no surprise that we have an open market here.
Dortmund are trading around 2.52 at the time of writing, so the market isn’t exactly expecting a win. As I said above, it would be a big setback if they failed to keep up three points here, as you would fully expect Bayern Munich to win later. Wolfsburg played very poorly midweek in the Champions League, only creating an xG of 0.30 away to Sevilla when losing 2-0 and they were held to a draw last weekend against Arminia Bielefeld who play Bayern later. Dortmund also lost in the Champions League though, losing 3-1 to Sporting Lisbon and their Champions League campaign has actually been very poor this season. You’d have to be a little worried looking at the xG figures that Dortmund are conceding, and although I’d love a close title race, I can actually see Dortmund slipping up pretty soon. In their last five games in all competitions they have conceded xG figures of 2.03, 1.79, 2.11, 2.22 and 1.41. I wouldn’t back them today, and the value play here is over 2.5 goals at 1.86 – both sides like to play attacking football, and Dortmund should open this game up with their tactics.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolDrt
JUVENTUS V ATALANTA
5pm Next we move to Serie A for what is the highlight fixture of the day in Europe as Juventus host Atalanta. I spoke last week about how important it was for Inter Milan to win, well this week it’s pretty much vital that Juventus win this fixture. Atalanta are going to start the weekend sitting in fourth place, and they are four points ahead of Juventus. I know Juventus are sitting down in eighth and there’s a few teams between them, but I feel if Juventus lose this game then their chances of a top four finish are really gone. If they win they will be within a point of Atalanta and they have the experience to finish the season strongly, but you also have to remember that they haven’t been playing good football this season, and that’s why they are sitting in eighth position. A fascinating situation to be honest – it’s very interesting to see the big clubs struggle this season, we have a similar situation in Spain with Barcelona. Juventus were always going to suffer from losing the Ronaldo goals, but their fall has been very sharp.
Neither side enjoyed their Champions League games midweek, with Juventus embarrassed in London losing 4-0 to Chelsea and Atalanta having to settle for a 3-3 draw with Young Boys away from home. There’s no getting away from the fact that Juventus will be more comfortable with home advantage here, but when you see the volume of chances Atalanta have been creating it’s hard to see how Juventus can stop them scoring. We’re going to have a very close game here, and I can’t have the prices. Juventus are too short at 2.26 – I’d have the sides closer together and much more open market. I’d still have Juventus as favourites given home advantage, but not trading as short as 2.26 and I’m happy to lay the home side from a value point of view. We should have a very close game here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Atalanta at 2.26 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQJuvAta
BAYERN MUNICH V ARMINIA BIELEFELD
5.30pm We move back to the Bundesliga next as the German Champions Bayern Munich host Arminia Bielefeld. Bayern Munich suffered a shock 2-1 defeat against Augsburg last weekend and that has really opened things up in the title race for the time being. As Dortmund play earlier in the day, they could have a chance to extend their lead or need to win to go back to the top. The markets are fully expecting a Bayern win however as they are trading as short as 1.1 at the time of writing. I don’t think you’d find a shorter price around Europe this weekend! It’s actually been a while since I saw a price before kick off this short outside of International football; usually we see prices like 1.13, and while 1.1 is only three ticks away, it actually takes a lot of money to move the prices when they get this low. Bayern were a very short price to beat Augsburg last weekend too though, and look what happened!
With that win for Augsburg last weekend, they would actually find themselves on the same amount of points as Arminia Bielefeld. That win could actually prove massive come the end of the season in the relegation battle! For the time being anyway, it is Arminia Bielefeld who sit in the relegation zone and it’s hard to see anything bar an easy Bayern win here. If you were looking for negatives on Bayern, their last two performances they only created an xG of 1.18 which is low for them, however back with home advantage now this should be a routine win. Arminia Bielefeld have managed to score in the last two meetings, and given the amount of goals Bayern have conceded this season I’m surprised to see Both Teams To Score trading odds against. If Bayern open up an easy 3-0 lead too for example, they usually ease off and the game becomes very open. I feel Arminia Bielefled can score here in a game that should see a host of goals.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 2.21 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBayArm
VILLARREAL V BARCELONA
8pm We finish a brilliant Saturday in La Liga with Villarreal hosting Barcelona. This is another fascinating game, and situation at Barcelona at the moment. It’s a sign of the times that we have such an open market. I can’t recall the last time we’d see Barcelona trading 2.7 to beat Villarreal, even away from home. Villarreal aren’t even having a good season themselves as they are sitting in the bottom half of the table. Nobody has confidence in Barcelona at the moment, and to be fair they haven’t done much to give you confidence! They had another disappointing result midweek in the Champions League with a 0-0 draw at home to Benfica. They were never going to top that group with Bayern Munich in it, but they actually have to play Bayern Munich away from home in the final group game and if Benfica beat Dynamo Kiev then Barcelona end up in the Europa League. What a fall from grace that would be, and to be honest you wouldn’t even fancy them to win that competition either.
Villarreal also had a disappointing Champions League result midweek with a 2-0 loss to Manchester United, and they will also have a crunch final matchday to try and get through. Thankfully a draw will be enough for them against Atalanta. Villarreal have been pretty average this season – I feel their place in the table reflects that, but they have really gone backwards. They will likely miss out on any sort of European football for next season too, and usually you’d fancy Barcelona to get the job done here but they have so many issues at the moment. For example, Barcelona managed a 2-2 draw away to Celta Vigo recently but they didn’t deserve a draw looking at the xG figures. They have played average a lot of times away from home this season, and that has to be a big worry here. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion and it could be a low quality affair – under 2.5 goals is my call at 2.14.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVllBar
