SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v MAINZ, BOLOGNA v INTER MILAN and GIRONA v OSASUNA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V MAINZ
2.30pm The action continues from Europe on Saturday with games from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We kick off the day in the Bundesliga with the German Champions Bayern Munich hosting Mainz. They won’t be getting called the Champions for long as they sit ten points behind Bayer Leverkusen. We had a massive week of Champions League action, and Bayern Munich took the headlines for the right reasons on Tuesday as they came back from losing the first leg 1-0 against Lazio. Anything bar a comfortable win against Lazio who have been poor in Serie A this season would have been a complete shock to be honest. I have to say I find the situation at Bayern very odd. Thomas Tuchel is going to be there until the end of the season, but surely the dressing room hasn’t been happy under him – maybe it would have been better to just tie things off now. The Bundesliga title race is over, so all focus will be on the Champions League now for Bayern. Despite that mindset, this is a game that they’ll be fully expected to win – they would have miles off par not to beat Mainz who sit in the relegation zone.
Bayern come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.25 at the time of writing – that’s an exceptionally short price, but it isn’t the shortest price of the weekend in the Bundesliga! That title goes to RB Leipzig at home to Darmstadt who are the only side with less points than Mainz. If you do fancy a shock, Mainz are trading 13.0 with the draw 7.4, but this is going to be a straightforward home win in my opinion. Mainz can claim to be a little unlucky to be where they are this season – they have an average xG created of 1.36 which is mid-table form. However, they have really struggled to find the net this season – their actual goals scored average works out at 0.79. They have clearly struggled up front, and Bayern are going to have most of the ball here. I feel Bayern can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning, and Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice bet at 2.06. Yes it’s odds on, but I’d have the market the other way around. Bayern have conceded some sloppy goals this season, so I’m going to keep stakes limited but the 2.06 looks good value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayMnz
BOLOGNA V INTER MILAN
5pm Next we move to Serie A as Bologna host Inter Milan. It might have been the case a few weeks ago, but the title race is definitely over. Inter won again on Monday night after Juventus got beaten by Napoli on Sunday and that left the gap at 15 points. It would be unlikely that a seven point gap would be closed never mind a 15 point one! Inter can just go on cruise control in Serie A now, and fully focus on the Champions League. They have a huge Last 16 tie coming up next week away to Atletico Madrid too, and I would keep an eye on the team news here. Surely anyone carrying a niggle won’t be risked, and Bologna will be hoping for plenty of changes given they are locked in a battle for fourth spot. Bologna are having a fantastic season, and they start the weekend sitting in fourth spot. They recorded a massive 2-1 win over Atalanta, and now they have a four point cushion on Roma in fifth and a five point cushion over Atalanta in sixth. Bologna have been very solid at the back this season, and it will be interesting to see can Inter break them down here.
As you would expect, Inter come into the game as the favourites but they aren’t trading odds on. Inter Milan are 2.28 with Bologna 3.6 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. We have two of the best three sides at the back this season in this one, so we might not see many goals here. Bologna have been over-performing at the back, their average xG conceded is 1.21 but their actual is 0.89 while Inter have the best figures across the board. I don’t have a very strong opinion on the match odds here; you have to respect the Bologna record this season and Inter do have a massive Champions League game midweek. I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.75. I felt we’d see Unders trading much shorter given the under-lining numbers coming into this game. We actually have had drama between these two in recent games – four of the last five meetings have finished with Over 2.5 goals which is a red flag for Unders, but they have both been so solid this season I still feel the 1.75 is worth a small bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BolInt
GIRONA V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Girona host Osasuna. Girona lead the way in La Liga for a lot of the season, but they were massively over-performing and in recent weeks they have started dropping points. Their xG figures were never as good as their league position, and now they are coming back more in line with their under-lining numbers. Their average xG created is 1.50 which is the sixth best attacking figure in La Liga – their actual average is over two goals per game, but eventually you stop scoring from awkward angles because that’s just probability. Girona start the weekend seven points behind Real Madrid now, and they have only won once in their last five games. They have had a difficult fixture list, they were put firmly in their place with a 4-0 loss to Real Madrid. Losing to Athletic Bilbao away from home is no shame, but losing to Mallorca last weekend was disappointing. Osasuna are sitting comfortably in mid-table – we basically know what we get with Osasuna now; they are performing in line with their results and position in the table. It’s no surprise to see Girona as the odds on favourites.
The home win is trading 1.64 with Osasuna 5.9 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Osasuna sit in mid-table in the home form and the away form table, but their under-lining numbers are quite different. They have been creating more than they are conceding at home and they have been quite limited away from home. Their average xG created away from home is only 1.15. Girona have a similar story; creating more at home and conceding more away from home. They have been solid at home, but obviously they are going through a little wobble at the moment. I can see Girona getting the job done, but I don’t see any value in the 1.64. The market is expecting goals, and although Girona have been massively over-performing in front of goal I feel Under 2.5 goals offers some value at 2.22. Osasuna have a poor attacking figure away from home, but they have been overall solid at the back this season. Couple that with Girona struggling a little lately and we can have a low scoring game here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirOsa
