BUNDESLIGA SATURDAY: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v BAYERN MUNICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm We have a cracker from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange with Der Klassiker on Saturday! Dortmund host Bayern Munich – one of the great fixtures in European football and obviously a bucket list experience in the Yellow Wall for plenty of football fans – but obviously there’s a little gulf in class between the sides these days as Bayern race away with the title. Dortmund will be desperate to give their fans something to shout about after what happened midweek in the Champions League – On Wednesday night, Dortmund were knocked out of the Champions League by Atalanta in one of the most dramatic finishes we’ve seen in a while.
Having won the first leg 2-0 in Dortmund, Niko Kováč’s side had one foot in the last 16. But Atalanta bounced back in front of their own fans to lead 3-0 – Dortmund pulled one back and as it looked like we were heading for extra time, Atalanta got a penalty. Obviously there was a big debate about the penalty decision – yes, the boot hit the head but it wasn’t intentional so Dortmund can feel unlucky. That’s VAR these days though; you can taking a massive risk when anything is on the edge like that. It was the second latest goal in Champions League knockout history, and the manner of the exit will surely have left scars.
There’s two ways of looking at this fixture – Dortmund come into it with a hangover from the week, or it’s such a big fixture that they forget about what happened to them on Wednesday. As you would expect, Bayern come into the game as the odds on favourites. Bayern are trading 1.67 with Dortmund 5.0 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. Bayern come into the weekend with an eight point lead, and while Dortmund are sitting in second, they are hardly in the title race. Maybe a win here could put some pressure on Bayern, but the gap would still be five points and Bayern have been exceptional this season.
Their average xG created of 2.33 is the best attacking figure in the Bundesliga but a huge margin – next best is 1.78! Harry Kane has been in absolutely sensational form and the goals have been flowing all season. At the back, their average xG conceded of just 1.01 is by far the best defensive figure – next best is 1.23 which is Dortmund. You can see why they are running away with the Bundesliga. Dortmund have an average xG created of 1.61 is the fourth best attacking figure in the Bundesliga – respectable, but a significant step down from Bayern obviously. The problem is that “decent” is nowhere near enough when you come up against a Bayern side of this quality!
Obviously we’ll have an excellent atmosphere here, but it’s hard to see past a Bayern win here. The 1.67 is a tempting bet; I’d have Bayern sub 1.6 given the way that they are playing this season. The market is expecting an entertaining game with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.36 and we do tend to have plenty of drama between these sides. Over 2.5 goals has landed in ten of the last twelve meetings, but I don’t see that much value in the goals market here compared to the Bayern price. Dortmund have had a tough week, and Bayern can make it worse! I’m happy with a confident bet at 1.67.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BDDoBa
