BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s top action in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

KOLN V SCHALKE

2.30pm It’s the final day in the Bundesliga and La Liga, and we have some huge games today! All football bets are also 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today, so we have an excellent day in store. We start the day with Koln taking on Schalke in a must win game for Koln. Schalke are already relegated and have been for some time, but Koln have an excellent chance to get out of the relegation zone given the opposition. Obviously they can’t control what happens elsewhere; they could win here and still get relegated, but they couldn’t have asked for a better side to lay on the final day – Schalke are the worst side in the Bundesliga. At the moment, Koln sit in 17th, one point behind Werder Bremen in 16th and two points behind Arminia Bielefeld in 15th.

You have to say Koln have the best chance to survival, or at least getting into the relegation playoff place. Koln are 1.37, while Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld are both trading between 2.7 and 2.8 to win their matches. Despite being very poor this season, Schalke have actually won two games from their last six – they’ve only managed three wins all season, so perhaps this is the worst time to play them! Despite beating Frankfurt last weekend, they still conceded an xG of 3.40 and they were lucky to beat Augsburg too. Koln like to play an open game, and this has been their downfall for most of the season. They create good chances, as the xG figures show, but they don’t convert a lot of their chances and they still concede a lot. They were desperately unlucky not to beat Hertha Berlin last weekend, with the game finishing 1.54 to 0.06 on xG to Koln. Schalke are going to give Koln a lot of chances and the 1.88 on Koln to cover the 1.5 goal handicap is too good to ignore. Schalke are a very bad side, and Koln should beat them easily.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Koln -1.5 goals to beat Schalke at 1.88 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQKolSch

WERDER BREMEN V GLADBACH

2.30pm Next up we have Werder Bremen taking on Gladbach in a must win game for the home side. Werder Bremen are going to start the day in the relegation Playoff position, which granted is better than the two relegation spots but given the fact that Koln lay Schalke and will be expected to win, the pressure is really on Werder Bremen. I feel the odds are all wrong here, and Werder Bremen are very much a “need to win” price at 2.76. That looks massively short to me, and although Gladbach have nothing to play for the 2.48 on them is simply too big to turn down. Given the situation, I’m happy to limit stakes a little – if Gladbach had something to play for they would be a Max Bet at the odds!

Werder Bremen have been in terrible form for a while now, and have finished the season very poorly. They have probably been the most out-of-form side in the run-in, and although they won’t like me saying this – they deserve to go down. They come into the final day without a win in nine games, and granted a lot of punters might look at this game as a must win game for them, they have been playing must win games for a few weeks now and losing. Werder Bremen’s problem is they simply aren’t creating enough chances to score. You can see that clearly by looking at their xG figures. Even if their recent 0-0 draw here against Bayer Leverkusen, they were lucky not to lose looking at the xG figures. Gladbach have had a very up-and-down season, but Werder Bremen are such a weak side they should enjoy playing against them and the 2.48 looks cracking value.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Gladbach to beat Werder Bremen at 2.48 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWerGla

REAL MADRID V VILLARREAL

5pm While I focused on the bottom of the table in the Bundesliga, it’s now time to turn our attention to the top of the La Liga table. It’s been a fantastic season, and now it comes down to the final day. We start with Real Madrid against Villarreal in a must win game for Real Madrid. Not only do they have to win this game, they have to hope Atletico Madrid slip up against Real Valladolid too as they start the day two points behind Atletico. It’s been an incredible run-in at the top of La Liga and although Real Madrid might not have played the best football, they have grinded out results and remained in the title race. I’m sure Atletico will be feeling the pressure today. Not only is this a massive game for Real, it’s a massive game for Villarreal too – they start the day just outside the Europa League spots, but they are level on points with Real Betis and one behind Real Sociedad, however because Barcelona won the Copa Del Rey they will get an early qualifying round spot anyway.

Villarreal also have a Europa League Final to look forward to on Wednesday, and you have to say that this is an ideal fixture to prepare for. I’m not sure if I would even rest players if I was manager – possibly take them off early if it’s a tough game, but I’d start with my main XI. Villarreal managed to beat Sevilla 4-0 last weekend which is an eye-catching result, but the xG figures tell a different story. They conceded an xG of 2.60 and we’re very lucky to score four times, their underlining numbers aren’t that good on paper, and their results have flattered them. On balance, Real look the correct price here at 1.46 – they should win but I wouldn’t have them any shorter. I do like goals here, and I’m going to take a chance with Any Other Home Win at 4.8 in the Correct Score market. The xG figures suggest Villarreal are there for the taking, but the likes of over 2.5 goals looks a little short – I much prefer a small bet on Real to hammer them and score four or more.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 4.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQRmaVil

REAL VALLADOLID V ATLETICO MADRID

5pm The pressure! Atletico Madrid go into the final day with a two point lead over Real Madrid. It’s a nice position to be in, but really and truly they should have the league won. They had a seven point lead with games in hand, and they had a little wobble a few weeks ago to let Real Madrid and Barcelona close the gap but they have bounced back nicely. They have benefitted from other results too, Barcelona at one stage had a chance to go ahead of them but lost their game in hand and they also picked up a 0-0 draw away to Barcelona at the start of the month. In typical Atletico fashion, they could grind out a title win. Although they face a side in the bottom three here, this brings its own problems. Real Valladolid are obviously a very limited side, but they are fighting for their lives today too. This won’t be an easy afternoon for Atletico.

Real Valladolid start the final day in 19th, and not only do they need to win, they need Huesca and Elche both to lose too – they are two points behind both of them and that’s unlikely to happen. Obviously the prices are a little shorter than usual with the “need to win” factored in, but Huesca are 1.73 to win and Elche are 2.02. Atletico will be hoping to lead at half-time, and possibly news get through that Huesca or Elche are winning 2-0 or something so Valladolid give up. Although Valladolid have finished the season poorly on paper, they have actually been playing well. They were very unlucky to lose against Villarreal and probably deserved two draws against Valencia and Real Sociedad. Don’t get me wrong, Atletico should outclass this Valladolid side, but I feel the 1.37 on Atletico is too short. It’s nothing to go mad about, but it’s worth a small lay at the odds.

The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Real Valladolid at 1.37 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQRavAtl