SATURDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Saturday’s matches between RB LEIPZIG v KOLN, AC MILAN V UDINESE and BARCELONA V RAYO VALLECANO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V KOLN
2.30pm European football is back in full flow and we have a cracking weekend ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Serie A and La Liga are back, but we start the day in the Bundesliga with RB Leipzig hosting Koln. It’s a busy afternoon in the Bundesliga, and this looks the pick of the early games. Koln had a reasonably easy start to their campaign with a smooth 3-1 win at home to Schalke. Long term readers will know that I rate Schalke very poorly, and it looks like they’ll have a long season ahead in the Bundesliga again. RB Leipzig had a disappointing result to start their season with a 1-1 draw away to Stuttgart – that was a very poor result but their performance was pretty good. They created an xG of 2.20 and were well on top; it was a setback, but at least they played well. This should be a high quality game between two exciting sides, and we should have a very good game. I thought we’d have a reasonably close market, and I was very surprised to see RB Leipzig trading as short as 1.46 when I clicked into the match odds market.
It’s going to be hard to get away from laying a home win here – Koln lost their two final games of the season in 2021/22, and they finished six points behind RB Leipzig. Those two losses were big for Koln because they dropped out of the Europa League spots which was a shame. I guess I rate Koln a lot more than the market here, and I expect them to create a lot of problems for RB Leipzig. Obviously they had low quality opposition on the opening weekend, but they did finish the game with an xG of 4.09 which was impressive. I know RB Leipzig are a classy outfit and obviously they have a great home record too, but I just fully expect this game to be a lot closer than the odds suggest. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes, but the 1.46 does look like a very nice lay to kick off the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) RB Leipzig to beat Koln at 1.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblKol
AC MILAN V UDINESE
5.30pm We move to Italy next as Serie A returns and the Champions AC Milan host Udinese to start the season. It’s fair to say every neutral fan loved AC Milan lifting the title last season, but now the test is can they hang onto their crown? They have such a massive history it was superb to see them bounce back to their former glory after so long – but football never sleeps as they say, and we’re onto a new season now. They should start their season with a win here – Udinese are a pretty average side. They are your classic mid-to-low Serie A side; they have finished between 12th and 14th over the last three seasons. Udinese generally aim to be solid at the back rather than win games based on their attacking talent. At the same time, if you look at their xG figures from last season you’ll see they created and conceded the exact same on average per Serie A game last season! When you look at the AC Milan stats compared to the Udinese stats, there is a clear gulf in class here. AC Milan created an average xG of 1.7 per game last season, but they were superb at the back – their xG conceded was 1 per game. As they say, it’s the defence that wins the title!
It’s hard to see past an AC Milan win here. They are worth backing at 1.44 in my opinion, and they are a very nice option for any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. Although it’s hard to see past AC Milan, it’s worth looking around the side markets here. I actually think we’ll see a pretty tight game here without many chances. AC Milan were so solid at the back last season I can see them keeping a clean sheet, and Udinese aren’t fantastic going forward either. I feel Udinese will put XI men behind the ball here and try to grind out a draw, so I can see AC Milan winning 1-0 or 2-0 to be honest. I wasn’t expecting to see Over 2.5 goals as short as 1.77 – if anything there’s a lot that points to Under 2.5 goals here and that looks a very attractive bet at 2.16. I do like the AC Milan win, but Unders looks cracking value and that just shades it as my best bet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmUdi
BARCELONA V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm Next we move over to Spain as Barcelona host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. The market is fully expecting a Barcelona win here – they are trading 1.23 at the time of writing – but there are a number of issues going on with Barcelona at the moment. I have to say, whatever happens with the new signings and what happens with the registering etc, haven’t they treated Frenkie de Jong terribly? You possibly expect it from the board because they have behaved so badly to get to this position, but I thought the fans would have behaved better towards him. They have been boo’ing him on arrival to the training ground, which just isn’t on. It’s not his fault Barcelona have put themselves in this position! Anyway; it’s a very interesting situation – let’s see what happens! Rayo Vallecano started last season reasonably strongly, but they did fall off a cliff after that strong start and finished in 12th. That was still a pretty good performance given they had to go through the playoffs in the Segunda all things considered, and they would have been pretty happy.
Barcelona went through a lot last season as well – losing Messi at the start of the season, and then changing managers. Their performances were very poor at the back, and Rayo Vallecano actually took six points off Barcelona last season. They won both meetings 1-0 but that doesn’t tell the full story. Barcelona created xG figures of 3.14 and then 1.49 at home. Both times Rayo Vallecano created an xG of under 1, and it’s fair to say they were two very unlucky results for Barcelona. That being said, and given the issues off the pitch, I would just avoid backing Barcelona at 1.23 this weekend. They just aren’t one for an Acca for example. With no value in the match odds market, I’m keen to look to the side markets for some value. The bet that stands out here is Under 3.5 goals at 1.68 – Barcelona can’t be at their best given the situation, and I don’t see Rayo Vallecano creating much here either. I’m keen to keep stakes low in this one, and let’s see how Barcelona get on!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarRyo
