SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top matches in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V RB LEIPZIG
2.30pm What a blockbuster Saturday in Europe! We’ve already had a fantastic week with the Champions League midweek, but we have some huge clashes around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange to enjoy this weekend. We have AC Milan and Juventus clashing in Serie A along with Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga later, but we kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Mainz hosting RB Leipzig. Neither side will be happy with their start to the season at the moment, they actually sit right beside each other at the start of the weekend. Both have 11 points from eight games, which obviously RB Leipzig will be very disappointed with. They did have a very strong mid-season last season, and they will need that if they’re going to have any chance of getting into the top four again. They come into this game as favourites, and to be honest Mainz look out of form at the moment, but it’s hard to make the case that RB Leipzig should be shorter than 2.26. They just haven’t played well enough this season to justify those odds, and I know Mainz don’t scream a team that you want to support at the moment but I would just opt to look elsewhere for value here.
With the match odds market looking about right, we’ll have to look towards the side markets. The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is an obvious place to start. Over 2.5 goals looks the best option here at 1.8. Mainz have been involved in plenty of open games this season, and when you look at their xG figures it’s hard not to like goals here. They actually conceded an xG of 5.12 away to Hoffenheim not long before the International break which is one of the highest xG figures in the Bundesliga this season! They played another open game last weekend away to Freiburg, and although they are much stronger at home I’d still expect an open game here. RB Leipzig just screams goals too – indeed most of their games end up with over 2.5 goals. They really needed that 4-0 win last weekend against Bochum – I know the opposition was of low quality but it was a nice confidence boosting win. Before the International break though they conceded three away to Gladbach, and it could have been more too. I’m surprised Over 2.5 goals isn’t trading close to 1.6 here, and it’s a confident bet to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiRbl
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
5pm Next we move over to Serie A for a huge clash between AC Milan and Juventus. This should be a cracker, even if it turns into your typical Italian cagey affair. AC Milan start the weekend three points behind Napoli at the top of the table after losing to them prior to the International break. That was a very unlucky result to be fair to AC Milan – they lost 2-1 but the game finished 2.40 to 1.14 on xG to AC Milan. At the end of the day, it’s a setback but it’s only three points and the show goes on. For Juventus they are in much bigger trouble – they started the weekend sitting in seventh, already seven points behind the leaders. They had a very slow start to the season last season too, but they did look stronger and this season their performances have been poor. If you look at the xG table, they actually don’t move so seventh is a fair reflection of their form. They really needed that 3-0 win against Bologna last weekend, but at the same time Bologna are pretty average and Juventus had home advantage too – I wouldn’t be saying they have turned things around yet! It will be interesting to see how they perform here away to the current Champions – AC Milan have definitely played the better football this season and they rightfully come into the game as the clear favourites.
Even though Juventus have been playing average football, their stats have been very poor. Their average xG created in Serie A this season is 1.3, and their average conceded is 1.2. We are talking about a top European team here, and that’s simply not good enough. Compare that to the AC Milan stats – they have created an xG of 2.0 and conceded an average of 1.0. Those are decent stats for any top side – I know this is a huge clash between two Serie A giants but when you look at the way they have played this season there is only one winner here. For me that is AC Milan, and I’d have them slightly odds on rather than the current 2.1. I know AC Milan have a massive run in the Champions League too, this fixture is in-between two big games with Chelsea, so I won’t go too mad with the staking however it’s hard to get away from the home win here. Three points feels the correct stake.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Juventus at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmJuv
DORTMUND V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm We move back to the Bundesliga next as we have Der Klassiker! When Dortmund and Bayern Munich meet it’s always interesting but I have to say it was very disappointing to see Dortmund lose last weekend! I know it’s very difficult to see anyone other than Bayern lift the Bundesliga title this season, however given they had dropped a few points at the start of the season I felt we might see some drama in the title race this season. Just like that though, Union Berlin and Dortmund lost last weekend as we returned from the International break, Bayern won and now they could end up top after this weekend should they win here and other results go their way. It was always likely, but for a moment I thought they would be tested! It’s hard to get your hopes up about Dortmund though given they have lost Erling Haaland and they also haven’t really been firing lately. They were collecting points, but their xG figures were never that impressive. Although they finished with a higher xG figure when losing to Koln last weekend, they have thrown in two very poor performances this season to lose to RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen. While Bayern have been dropping points too, their performances have always been better.
For example, Bayern drew 1-1 with Gladbach earlier in the season but they finished with an xG of 3.23! To be fair though, they weren’t great in the games leading up to the International break. I know they finished the 1-0 loss to Augsburg with an xG of 2.09, but they still conceded 2.12! I think the best way to describe Bayern this season is that they are still the best side in the league, but they aren’t as far away from everyone else as they were. Bayern still come into the game as odds on favourites, and to be honest given the performance level from Dortmund this season it’s hard to see past Bayern at 1.74 here. The market is also expecting a lot of goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.37 at the time of writing – it’s hard not to see an open game here to be honest. I couldn’t put anyone off the Bayern win at 1.74 and I would recommended it for any Acca this weekend, however my best bet here is Both Teams To Score at 1.48. This game screams goals given Bayern have been conceding so many chances this season – given Dortmund have home advantage they should be able to find the net at some stage. I expect a very entertaining game here to be honest!
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Both Teams To Score at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorByn
GETAFE V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a cracking Saturday as Getafe host the Champions Real Madrid. Most football fans will feel this should be a routine win for Real Madrid, but it was disappointing to see them drop points last weekend at home to Osasuna. I’m sure we’ll have plenty of interesting in Real around the 1.5 mark here but Getafe have actually got results in two of the last three meetings in La Liga. They managed a 1-0 win here last season, and in 2021 they also held Real to a 0-0 draw so perhaps the 1.5 isn’t one to include in an Acaa today! It was a real shame to see the final result for Real last weekend but you couldn’t knock the performance. They finished with an xG of 2.87 and it was just unlucky that they had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Real have been exceptional going forward in La Liga this season – their xG figures since the start of the season read; 3.32, 3.39, 2.16, 3.28, 2.81, 1.52 and 2.87. Their only figure under 2 came away to Atletico Madrid and they deserved their win there too. That 1-1 draw last weekend did see Barcelona jump over them though, and as we head into El Clasico next weekend you have to say it’s set up superbly!
Despite Real being is top form this season, I am happy to pass on the 1.5 here. I don’t want to be against them, but it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter given their record here. I couldn’t have them as short as 1.4 for example, and I’m happy to look to the side markets for some value here. Although Real Madrid have been creating a lot this season, Getafe tend to stop them. We have had Under 2.5 goals land in the last five La Liga meetings, indeed it’s won in seven of the last eight La Liga meetings. A big worry here however is that Getafe have been conceding a host of chances this season – they are conceding an average of over two goals per game and the xG isn’t much better – that’s 1.6 per game. Over 2.5 goals is trading odds on so Under 2.5 goals is definitely a tempting bet, but I actually prefer Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92. This allows a big Real Madrid win and a clean sheet, because I am worried about Getafe at the back this season – especially combined with how good Real have been. I can see a reasonably quiet game, and it’s likely we’ll see Real grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GetRea
