SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between HOFFENHEIM v BAYERN MUNICH, AC MILAN v MONZA and REAL MADRID v SEVILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HOFFENHEIM V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm The action keeps on coming from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have another cracking weekend ahead. Real Madrid v Sevilla is the highlight fixture over in La Liga later, but we have the German and Italian Champions both in action in the Bundesliga and Serie A before that. We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim hosting Bayern Munich. It’s fair to say that Bayern Munich haven’t been at their best this season – they start the weekend sitting in second four points behind Union Berlin. I don’t doubt that they will be lifting the title come the end of the season, but it would be nice to see a close title race. The thing is everyone seems to be falling away – Union Berlin are still standing but Dortmund have dropped plenty of points recently and it’s hard to see Union Berlin not coming back to Bayern at some stage. I have a lot of time for Union Berlin – we actually successfully laid Bayern against them earlier in the season – but I didn’t have them down as title contenders at the start of the season! I thought their aim would be to break into the top four after finishing fifth last season.
Bayern have found their goal scoring touch is recent weeks – they have scored 20 goals in their last five games in all competitions. They really should have won against Dortmund from 2-0 up, but they have been putting weaker sides to the sword. The 4-0 win over Leverkusen would have been the highlight to start that run, but then again Leverkusen have been so poor this season. Hoffenheim are your classic mid-table Bundesliga side but they are in the mix for a top four spot at the moment. They started the weekend sitting in fourth after a very positive start, and they have managed results in the last two meetings between the sides here. Bayern have been hammering them when they have home advantage, but Hoffenheim won 4-1 here in 2020 and then held Bayern to a 1-1 last season. That record doesn’t put me off Bayern here at 1.53 though – I felt we’d see Bayern closer to 1.4 but Hoffenheim haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances recently. I’m happy to take out the Schalke game because they are so average, and then the recent xG figures from Hoffenheim read 1.34, 1.53 and 0.70. Not enough to cope with a side like Bayern who come here in confident form. I fully respect the fact that they haven’t been at their best so they won’t be a Max Bet, just a confident selection.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Bayern Munich to beat Hoffenheim at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HofBay
AC MILAN V MONZA
5pm We move to Serie A next as AC Milan host Monza. Most football fans would have been very disappointed with the AC Milan performances against Chelsea in the Champions League recently, probably highlighting the gulf in class between Serie A and the Premier League at the moment, but in Serie A AC Milan have been ticking their boxes. They start the weekend three points behind Napoli at the top of the table, but probably more importantly already five points ahead of Inter Milan. When you look at the Serie A table you can’t help but feel it’s going to be the most exciting title race in Europe. It looks like we have so many with chances this season – even Roma who are one point behind AC Milan to start the weekend have been playing some incredible football under Jose Mourinho at the start of the season. While the title race might go all the way to the wire, this is a game that AC Milan should be winning. Monza will be very happy with their start to life in Serie A, but you can’t get away from the fact that they could only manage fourth in Serie B last season and they should be out of their depth here. I was very surprised to see AC Milan trading as big as 1.45 when I clicked into the market – I was expecting to see them trading in the 1.3’s. IN between the losses to Chelsea they have been playing very well in Serie A – their last three xG figures read 1.41, 2.17 and 2.69.
They recorded a very smooth 2-0 win here against Juventus in their last Serie A home game, and although they lost to Napoli at home before the International break they were very unlucky in that game – they created an xG of 2.40 in the 2-1 loss. When you look at the recent form of Monza, maybe you can understand why some punters are keen to lay Milan at 1.45. They have won three of their last four and that includes a win over Juventus. To be fair, Juventus have dropped a lot of points already this season and when you look at the underlining numbers for Monza they don’t look that impressive. At the moment they are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game, and as the saying goes you don’t win many games conceding two goals! Their average xG created is only 1.0, and when you compare the stats to AC Milan it’s night-and-day. AC Milan are creating an xG of 2.0 per game on average and only conceding 1.1. With home advantage and in good form, creating lots of chances, I’m very happy with the 1.45 on AC Milan here. It’s big enough to justify a Max Bet for me – hopefully we land five in a row!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win AC Milan to beat Monza at 1.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmMon
REAL MADRID V SEVILLA
8pm We head to La Liga to finish the evening as Real Madrid host Sevilla. This was always a cracking fixture, and although it’s definitely lost some of his sparkle this season because Sevilla have been so poor, it’s still an interesting game to look forward to. It’s hard to see how Sevilla can handle this Real side given how badly they have started the season, and the market agrees with Real trading as short as 1.41 at the time of writing. We haven’t seen a price like that on Real to win against Sevilla in recent times, but it’s a reflection of how bad Sevilla have been this season. They start the weekend sitting in the lower end of mid-table, and to be honest it could be even worse. They were hanging around the relegation zone for a while! They managed a 1-0 win away to Mallorca last weekend but the score line doesn’t tell the whole story – they conceded an xG of 1.85 and were very lucky to win. They only managed to create an xG of 0.16 – we landed a nice lay on them to beat Valencia midweek in a very even game, and to be honest they haven’t really put in an impressive display all season. I know they have put together four results now in all competitions – three draws and a win – but the only game they finished with a higher xG figure was the Dortmund game who have been dropping points in the Bundesliga and even then that was only marginal. I know on paper the 1.41 might feel a little short on Real given there is so much history to this fixture, but on form this season the 1.41 actually feels too big.
Real have been absolutely superb this season – they’ve only dropped points once in La Liga and they should have won that game too. They drew 1-1 here against Osasuna just after the International break but finished the game with an xG of 2.87. They landed a Max Bet for us this week when beating Elche 3-0 and covering the handicap, and while they won’t be a Max Bet here I do feel that they can cover the handicap again. Sevilla have been conceding a host of chances this season – their average xG conceding is a whopping 2.2 which just isn’t good enough for a club like them. Compare to what Real are creating on average this season which is 2.4 and I think you only have one way traffic here. Real are trading 2.08 -1.5 goals which looks cracking value based on all the stats from both sides this season. It might not be a Max Bet, but it’s a very confident one.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Sevilla at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaSev
