SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v FREIBURG, ATLETICO MADRID v GETAFE and REAL BETIS v CELTA VIGO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V FREIBURG
2.30pm We’re all set for another cracking weekend around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! I like the look of three markets on Saturday with action from the Bundesliga and La Liga. We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Dortmund hosting Freiburg. This should be a high quality game with both sides starting the weekend sitting in the top five. They sit right beside each other in fourth and fifth, and have the same amount of points. With Bayern drawing their last three games, that has definitely opened things up a little at the top of the table. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still extremely difficult to see Bayern not lifting the title, but these two are only three points behind Bayern now, and then you have Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in the mix too. This is a huge game for both sides looking at the situation, and I’m sure Dortmund are delighted to have home advantage in such a big game. Dortmund have put three wins together since resuming their season after the winter break, and they come into this game as the odds on favourites.
I wouldn’t say that Dortmund have blown sides away in their last two games – their xG figures were 1.28 and 0.97. They were lucky to beat Bayer Leverkusen who finished the game with a higher xG than Dortmund. For me, the jury is still out on Dortmund – obviously it’s always going to be difficult to replace the goals from Erling Haaland, and we can cut them a little slack. Freiburg will be delighted to be sitting within the top five, and definitely in the mix for a Champions League spot too but they resumed their season with a shock 6-0 loss against Wolfsburg! They have played much better since, and I wouldn’t say that they have been poor away from home either. I don’t see much value in the match odds market with Dortmund at 1.7, and I much prefer Over 2.5 goals at the same price. Both sides like to play an open game and their under-lining numbers are very similar too. Over 2.5 goals has won in seven of the last eight meetings between these sides, and they will gel together very well in my opinion. At 1.7, I feel Overs is worth a Max Bet!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorFre
ATLETICO MADRID V GETAFE
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga as Atletico Madrid host Getafe. Atletico haven’t been at their best this season, but they have managed to put much needed back-to-back wins together coming into this game. The top three are still moving a little away from them, I think they can forget about the title race, but you’d expect Atletico to catch Real Sociedad sitting in third. They can put all their focus onto La Liga from here anyway because they got knocked out of the Champions League, and didn’t even finish in third to go into the Europa League. It’s not being dramatic to say that this is a must win game for Atletico at home to Getafe who sit in the bottom three. There’s a huge amount of sides involved in the relegation battle in La Liga this season – indeed at the start of the weekend there was only four points between Girona in 12th and Getafe in 19th. Apart from Elche nailed to the bottom of the table, everything is to play for. From a Getafe point of view, they have put four losses together at just the wrong time. Atletico are heavily fancied by the market, and they are currently trading 1.43 at the time of writing. Atletico haven’t been impressive at home this season, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at that price.
Atletico have actually got more points away from home this season, and they only have 14 points from nine home games this season which is obviously disappointing for a side like Atletico. Getafe have been trying to keep games as tight as possible this season, and that has cost them going forward. Their average xG created this season is 0.9, but ironically their best recent performance came away to Barcelona! They lost 1-0 but finished the game with an xG of 1.77 while only conceding 0.76. When I look at this game I just see a closer game than the odds suggest here, and I’m happy to lay Atletico at 1.43 from a value point of view. We’re taking a chance supporting Getafe given they are in the bottom three, but as I said Atletico haven’t fired this season, especially at home, and betting is all about value – I believe we see a close game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Getafe at 1.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlGet
REAL BETIS V CELTA VIGO
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish a very interesting Saturday, and we have another fixture here that’s going to impact the top and bottom of the table as Real Betis host Celta Vigo. Real Betis had a huge game midweek against Barcelona, and came up short getting totally outplayed. It’s fair to say that they can be a little disappointed with their season sitting outside the top four. With Sevilla having such a bad start, Real Betis were in prime position to take that Champions League spot but it hasn’t worked out that way. Credit to Real Sociedad, but Real Betis will have to hope they drop a lot of points. For Celta Vigo, they recorded a huge win last weekend against Athletic Bilbao that kept them out of the bottom three. They have resumed their season in great form, and at the moment you’d have to fancy them to stay up. They have only been beaten once, and that was a very even game against Mallorca. Their xG figures since resuming their season have been very impressive, and they should actually be further away from the relegation zone! Their xG figures have been 1.76, 1.92, 2.53, 0.42 and 0.69. Even with the two low figures, they conceded less chances.
We should have a pretty close game here in my opinion. Real Betis are the favourites at 2.28, but Celta Vigo come into the game bang in form. Even though Real Betis beat Rayo Vallecano, they were outplayed in that game conceding an xG close to double what they created. Add that to them getting outplayed by Espanyol and then a very boring 0-0 and I feel there’s a lot of reasons to be against Real Betis in the market here. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes because Celta Vigo are towards the bottom of the table at the end of the day, but looking at their xG figures it seems a great time to support Celta Vigo. Both sides tend to try to keep games as tight as possible, so that brings Under 2.5 goals into the mind and that’s trading 1.58. The market is pretty much expecting a reasonably low scoring game here, and while I couldn’t put anyone off Under 2.5 goals I prefer the Real Betis lay at 2.28. As I said, it’s a good time to support Celta Vigo playing their best football of the season and I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Real Betis to beat Celta Vigo at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetCel
