SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between MAINZ v BAYERN MUNICH, DORTMUND v EINTRACHT FRANKFURT and REAL MADRID v CELTA VIGO< all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm It’s another intriguing Saturday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have fixtures from the Bundesliga and La Liga with Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Real Madrid all in action. We start the day in the Bundesliga as Mainz host the German Champions Bayern Munich. It hasn’t been a good run for Bayern, they crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday night against Manchester City but the damage was all done in the first leg. Usually they have the Bundesliga close to won by now, but they only have a two point lead over Dortmund at the moment. Dortmund will be kicking themselves too because they drew with Stuttgart last weekend while Bayern Munich also dropped points! It’s very unusual that Bayern would change their manager mid-season, and Thomas Tuchel hasn’t been an instant hit. He’s had to deal with all the Sadio Mane drama and then saw Bayern crash out of the German Cup in one of his very early games in charge. Bayern are only left in the Bundesliga, so all their focus has to turn to the title bid now and extending their record. Mainz come into this game off the back of a run of nine games unbeaten in the Bundesliga. They beat RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen and drew with Freiburg in that run too. With home advantage for Mainz, this will be a tricky afternoon for Bayern.
Bayern Munich still come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.61 at the time of writing, and usually Bayern are a popular bet when they are trading over 1.5 in the Bundesliga. It’s clear that they haven’t been creating the same volume of chances this season though, and I would worry about expecting them to cover the handicap or score plenty of goals here. The positive for goals is Mainz like to play an open game – they create and concede an average xG of 1.5 so they are entertaining. Over 2.5 goals is only three ticks shorter than the Bayern win price, and I have to say I much prefer the Over 2.5 goals bet. I don’t see Mainz sitting back here, and that will make for an entertaining game. Bayern have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season too – with Mainz on a very good run the 1.61 on Bayern doesn’t make as much appeal as the Overs bet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MizBay
DORTMUND V EINTRACHT FRANKFURT
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt. This should be a high quality game, and it’s another must win game for Dortmund as they aim to keep up with Bayern Munich at the top of the table. From that point of view they will be absolutely kicking themselves after drawing against Stuttgart last weekend. Bayern also drew, so they would have closed the two point gap – although the goal difference is absolutely massive. It was a huge opportunity missed for Dortmund though, especially as Bayern would have had one eye on the Champions League fixture with Manchester City, and now that angle is gone. In fairness, not many football fans expected the title race to be this close after Dortmund lost Erling Haaland but here they are – this was actually a huge opportunity for Dortmund to finally win a title because Bayern have had a lot of issues this season and clearly haven’t been at their best – but it looks like they are going to get away with it! Frankfurt will be a good test for Dortmund, but they do come into this game off the back of a run without a win. It’s been seven Bundesliga games without a win for Frankfurt.
Frankfurt have definitely been a little unlucky to go that long without a win. Especially in the games against Union Berlin Bochum and Gladbach where they finished with xG figures of 2.84. 2.95 and 2.52 in 1-1 draws and a 1-0 loss. Dortmund have been excellent at home this season though – they have actually recorded two more points than Bayern Munich at home this season from one game less. It’s easy to see why Dortmund come into the game trading as the odds on favourites then. They don’t have many flaws at home, and they have been creating an average xG of 1.9 this season. Frankfurt’s under-lining numbers aren’t bad – they create more than they concede so the 1.7 is a fair reflection of the Dortmund chances in my opinion. I don’t see much value in the match odds market, and I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.53. These two should gel together very well for an entertaining game full of action at both ends of the pitch – both sides have an average of over three goals per game they have been involved in this season in the Bundesliga, and that should continue here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorEin
REAL MADRID V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Real Madrid host Celta Vigo. Real Madrid progressed to the Champions League Semi-Finals midweek with another win over Chelsea. It’s nothing to jump up and down about given how bad Chelsea have been recently, but they got the job done without much fuss over the two legs. It was a bizarre decision from Chelsea to bring back Frank Lampard. While Real Madrid’s focus will all be on the Champions League, and a Copa del Rey Final at the end of the season too, they do have a little break now before we have the Champions League Semi-Finals so we might get their full focus on La Liga. That being said, given the gap at the top of the table to Barcelona, I can’t see them risking any player that has a knock or anything like that – the title race is over. We could see some lacklustre performances from Real Madrid from that point of view, but we will also get very entertaining games. I think they’ll just play a very open and attacking brand of football in La Liga now – they lost 3-2 against Villarreal in a very open game, and then beat Cadiz 2-0 but finished that game with an xG of 5.14 which is one of the highest xG figures I’ve seen this season.
Real Madrid might not be too reliable given the situation, but they will give us fireworks! I personally wouldn’t be rushing to back them as short as 1.43 here – but I fully accept there is a big gulf in class between the sides. Celta Vigo lost last weekend against Mallorca but prior to that game they had put a lot of good results together. They were creating decent xG figures too – they were far too good to be hanging around the relegation fight, and now they are safely sitting in mid-table. Their away form is very solid – not far off their home performances so there isn’t as bias there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Real Madrid changes, but I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.61. Celta Vigo have been involved in a lot of high scoring games lately, and Real Madrid will play a very open and attacking game here. I’d have Over 2.5 goals trading shorter than 1.5 and I feel we’re getting so much value at the odds it’s worth a Max Bet. Hopefully we can keep the good run going from our Max Bets recently! I fancy Over 2.5 goals in all three games today; it might make a nice treble!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaCel
