EUROPEAN FOOTBALL PREVIEW: The Ultra previews PSG v STRASBOURG, SEVILLA v REAL MADRID and CELTA VIGO v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PSG V STRASBOURG
4pm Domestic football is back, and we have a cracking Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some top class action from Ligue 1 and La Liga with PSG, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid all in action. We start the day over in France as PSG host Strasbourg. It hasn’t been business as usual for PSG in Ligue 1 this season, they’ll most likely still lift the title, but they are two points off the leaders Monaco at the moment and sitting in third place. They just haven’t been themselves, and they were blown away by Newcastle in the Champions League too before the International break. There’s a huge amount of change going on at PSG with Neymar and Messi leaving, Mbappe is certain to leave next summer too and it looks like they need a reset. The reality is they have focused too much on star players and haven’t built a team. That gets exposed in the big games, as we have seen time and time again in the Champions League. Despite all the issues off the field at PSG, they are unlikely to be tested on the field here by an average Strasbourg side.
The market is very confident on a PSG win here. They are trading as short as 1.25 at the time of writing which is one of the shortest prices around Europe’s major leagues this weekend. Strasbourg were only five points off the relegation zone last season, and while they are sitting in mid-table they are only three points off the bottom three at the start of the weekend. They are also creating very little; their average xG is only 0.78 which is the worst record in Ligue 1 this season so they are probably looking at another relegation battle. Despite dropping plenty of points this season, PSG are have an average xG of 2.04 – they are the only side in Ligue 1 with an average xG of over 2.0, the next best is 1.76. Long-term, they will lift the title again because they also have one of the best records at the back too. This should be a pretty routine win for the home side, and they can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score looks a very nice bet at 1.88 looking at the Strasbourg attacking figures.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgStr
SEVILLA V REAL MADRID
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga for a cracking game as Sevilla host Real Madrid. It wasn’t that long ago that Sevilla were the main challengers to Real Madrid in the title race! They ended up in fourth in the 2021/22 season, but right up until the run-in they were the closest side to Real Madrid with Barcelona going through all their issues off the pitch. They had a woeful season last season though, and sat in the relegation zone for a large part of it. Obviously they are too good to even be in a relegation battle, and they won the Europa League too! After winning the Europa League and thus keeping Champions League football, I thought they might bounce back into the top four this season but that hasn’t been the case. They have struggled to get results, and they start the weekend only two points off the bottom three. Looking at their under-lining numbers there’s no need to hit the panic button. Their average xG created is 1.81 which is the third best figure in La Liga this season – only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. They just need to start winning games and stop conceding sloppy goals. Last season they had issues at the back, but they aren’t giving away a host of chances this season. Their average xG conceded is only 1.24 which is one of the best figures in La Liga; the same as Real Madrid.
Real Madrid have been exceptional this season though, and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.9 at the time of writing with Sevilla 4.3 and the draw is 4.0. Jude Bellingham can make a good case that he has been the best player in the world so far this season, and he continues in superb form. Real Madrid bring a good record against Sevilla into this game; they have won the last four meetings between the sides, and eight of the last seven (the other being a draw). Sevilla were very poor at home last season; they actually finished in the bottom three on the home form table and finished the season with a win rate of only 37% at home. They haven’t set the world alight at home this season, but they do create more chances at home. I am very tempted by the 1.9 on Real Madrid, but with Sevilla creating a lot of chances this season I feel they can score at some stage. Both Teams To Score looks a nice bet at 1.67.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SvlRma
CELTA VIGO V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish a brilliant Saturday as Celta Vigo host Atletico Madrid. Despite beating Real Madrid recently and starting the weekend sitting inside the top four, I don’t think Atletico will be fully happy with their season so far. They are already five points off the pace, but they do have a game in hand. They’ve dropped points away to Real Betis and Valencia this season, and Celta Vigo will be hoping to add to that list here. It’s been a poor start to the season for Celta Vigo who sit inside the bottom three at the moment. They were involved in the relegation battle, along with so many other sides in La Liga last season, and it seems they might involved again this season. The positive for Celta Vigo is that they are creating chances – they actually come into this game with a higher average xG created than Atletico Madrid. The figure for Celta Vigo is 1.48 while for Atletico it is 1.43 – not much in it, and the reality is they are mid-table figures with Real Madrid having an average xG of 2.19 for example! Atletico have had issues away from home, and they will definitely have their layers here.
They come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. They are 2.18 at the time of writing with Celta Vigo 3.8 and the draw is 3.55. Atletico are only marginally creating more chances than they are conceding, but looking at their away form produces a lot more red flags. Their average xG created is only 1.19 away from home, and they are conceding more chances too. Celta Vigo are more solid at the back at home as well, and you can definitely see why Atletico aren’t odds on here. I feel we’ll have a very close and cagey game here, and Under 2.5 goals is definitely an appealing bet at 1.89. I expected it to be trading shorter when I clicked into the market. We tend to have low scoring affairs between these two; only 38% of the meetings have finished with Over 2.5 goals and coupled with the under-lining numbers from both sides this season the Unders looks a very nice position here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 draw either, and that might be a nice option at around 11.5 too.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CltAtl
