SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between HOFFENHEIM v BAYERN MUNICH, VILLARREAL v CELTA VIGO and AC MILAN v EMPOLI all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HOFFENHEIM V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm Another cracking Saturday lies ahead in Europe, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim hosting the Champions Bayern Munich. It’s been a good week for Bayern Munich despite dropping points last weekend to Bayer Leverkusen – Dortmund’s game was postponed so their lead at the top of the Bundesliga is nine points and then they hammered Red Bull Salzburg 7-1 midweek in the Champions League. The market was always confident Bayern would win as they started the game trading around 1.22, but they did it in style! Although Hoffenheim produced one of the shock results of last season winning 4-1 here against Bayern Munich, since then the sides have met twice with Bayern winning 4-1 and 4-0. Both of those games came with home advantage though, and Hoffenheim will be hoping to surprise everyone again. They come into this game off the back of four wins in a row, but it’s hard to see past a Bayern win here. They have been absolutely superb this season.
When I clicked into the market here I was very surprised to see Bayern trading as big as 1.63. I expected them to be around 1.5 if not lower. Hoffenheim are having a very good season this year, they are going to start the weekend sitting in fourth position keeping RB Leipzig out of the top four, but let’s be honest there is still multiple levels between the sides. Hoffenheim may have shocked everyone with a 4-1 win in their last home against against Bayern, but they lost the home game prior to that 6-0. Bayern have been creating some seriously impressive xG figures for most of the season – their performance last weekend was probably their worst all season when drawing with Bayer Leverkusen but what can you say about the bounce back midweek with a 7-1 win! Although Hoffenheim have won their last four they have conceded xG figures of 1.22, 1.48, 1.63 and 1.42. They have been playing very open games and those tactics just don’t work against a side like Bayern. I’m very confident on the Bayern win here and the odds stand out as a Max Bet at 1.63.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Hoffenheim at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHffBay
VILLARREAL V CELTA VIGO
5.30pm We move to La Liga next as Villarreal host Celta Vigo. All the tops sides in La Liga were involved in European action midweek, so most of the big fixtures have been pushed back to Sunday and Monday. This is a big game for Villarreal though who start the weekend sitting in 7th and they will be pushing for a European spot. They will be cheering for Real Betis in the Copa Del Rey Final so another European spot opens up – Betis have just fallen out of the top four though and it hasn’t been a good run for them over the last few weeks apart from that successful semi-final. They face a tricky-to-beat Celta Vigo side here, and I can see Celta making them work very hard for the win. Celta Vigo have turned into your classic midtable La Liga side over the last two seasons after their relegation battle in the 2019/20 season when they stayed up by just one point and then they also finished in 17th too in 2018/19! It’s been an excellent improvement over the last while, and the question here is do they have enough class to cope with a side like Villarreal. It was disappointing to see Villarreal lose to Osasuna last weekend though – they performed very poorly too crating an xG of just 0.52 and deserved to lose 1-0. Celta Vigo have been involved in some end-to-end games recently and sometimes they have come out on the right side and sometimes the wrong side. Although they lost 2-0 away to Atletico Madrid at the end of February, they finished the game with a higher xG figure.
I’ve been a big fan of Villarreal this season because they have been playing their best football of the season recently. They had a very slow start and were way behind – if they miss out on European football it will be because of their slow start not the standard of play since – but since coming into form they have been very reliable and they’ve put in some very good performances too. They even held Juventus to an xG figure of just 0.41 here in the Champions League. Their home form has been excellent this season too, they start the weekend sitting in third place in the home form table for example. I couldn’t put anyone off the Villarreal win at 1.7 here, and I may indeed back it myself, but I feel the best value bet for this game is under 2.5 goals at 2.06. I can see Celta keeping this game very tight and Villarreal will have to grind out a win. I feel Villarreal will indeed grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win, but Celta don’t give away much and have had under 2.5 goals in four of their last five games. We’ll see unders again here in my opinion as Villarreal won’t want to open this game up too much either, and they will grind out a win in the second half.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilCel
AC MILAN V EMPOLI
7.45pm We move to Serie A to finish the day as AC Milan host Empoli. Last weekend was a fantastic weekend for AC Milan as they recorded a 1-0 win away to Napoli. That was a huge win and kept them top of the table – they are now three points ahead of Napoli and two ahead of Inter Milan, although they do have a game in hand. The top three in Serie A have all had setbacks recently, and we’re sure to have a classic finish to the season. Much like Inter Milan’s game last weekend to Salernitana, this is a must win game for AC Milan. I don’t think that’s being too dramatic to be honest – when you’re in the running for the title you just can’t afford to drop points against sides in the bottom half of the table when you have home advantage. The market is pretty confident on an AC Milan win here too, with the home win trading 1.38 at the time of writing. Empoli come into this game without a win in their last ten Serie A games and they have been on a terrible run. Included in that run is a 4-2 loss against AC Milan when they had home advantage too.
I would be confident on the AC Milan win here, and I believe they are worth including in any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend. I’m not going to tip a 1.38 shot outright though, and I’m going to look to the side markets for some extra value instead. One thing to note about Empoli is they have been very poor at home and that they have actually been better away from home. At home, they have only managed 11 points from 14 games this season and while they have put in some decent performances on that ten game run without a win – you can clearly see they don’t create many chances. While I wouldn’t put anyone off AC Milan on the handicap here, I do feel that they can keep a clean sheet while winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.96 and that looks the best value bet here. Empoli have failed to score in three of their last five, and AC Milan are generally tight at the back too – I feel this will be a very controlled 1-0 or 2-0 win for AC Milan.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAcmEmp
