SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews KOLN v DORTMUND, RB LEIPZIG v BAYER LEVERKUSEN and UDINESE v AC MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V DORTMUND
2.30pm An intriguing Saturday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE around Europe. We have action from the Bundesliga and Serie A to enjoy, and we kick off the day in the Bundesliga with Koln hosting Dortmund. Last weekend was a massive success for Dortmund – they came back from the winter break six points off the top four. Sancho made a successful return with an assist, and Stuttgart and RB Leipzig both lost meaning Dortmund are very much back in the top four race again. I have to say, with Stuttgart and RB Leipzig having a six point gap at least and then playing better, the chances for Dortmund looked quite poor. Things are more competitive now, but they still have to improve their performance level. Koln are another side looking to improve their performance level – they sit in the relegation zone and their chances of staying up look quite bleak. Even though they have Union Berlin three points ahead of them, I can’t see them going down considering they finished in the top four last season – their target has to be Bochum but they have a six point advantage. The best chance for Koln feels like getting into the relegation playoff spot and then coming through that.
Dortmund will be fully expected to win here, especially with all the fanfare around Sancho returning. They have had a lot of issues away from home this season though, and that makes the market interesting. Dortmund come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers at 1.77. The home win is trading 4.8 while the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Koln have been playing at a level that suggests they shouldn’t be in the relegation zone – their average xG created is basically mid-table form but they can’t buy a goal this season. 11 goals in 17 games is the worst scoring record of any side in the Bundesliga; not only that but they are also conceding more goals than they should be too. Dortmund have been conceding a host of chances away from home – their average xG conceded is as high as 1.73 away which is an incredibly poor figure for a top side. They’ll very likely get away with that here though against a Koln side who are really struggling in front of goal. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but a small bet on Dortmund at 1.77 feels the best position here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Dortmund to beat Koln at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KlnDor
RB LEIPZIG V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
5.30pm Next we have the highlight of the day as RB Leipzig host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. This should be a cracker between two top four sides, and it’s a massive game for Bayer Leverkusen who still sit top of the table over Bayern Munich. It feels like everyone is just waiting for Bayern Munich to take over at the top but Leverkusen have been exceptional this season under Xabi Alonso. Bayern Munich will always have incredible stats, but Leverkusen aren’t far behind them this season. Bayern have an average xG created of 2.34 and Leverkusen are second best at 1.99 – in third place is RB Leipzig, so you imagine this is going to be a high quality game. Leverkusen have also been excellent at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.08 this season, again the second best figure in the Bundesliga but again, RB Leipzig are in third. This is a massive game for Leverkusen because they remain unbeaten and have a four point lead, with Bayern having a game in hand of course, but you’d have to say this is the hardest fixture for them outside of playing Bayern away from home.
Getting results in games like this will make the squad believe that they can actually hold off Bayern and win the title. We have a very open market, but RB Leipzig come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.54 with Bayer Leverkusen 2.82 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. We have two exceptional sides here, and there aren’t many negatives. Leipzig have been exceptional at home this season – they are creating two goals per game and conceding very close to one. Their loss last weekend here against Eintracht Frankfurt was their first this season. Leverkusen have been creating a lot away, but they have also been conceding chances. An average xG conceded of 1.42 is a little higher than they would like. They’ve only dropped points against Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Stuttgart this season. I have to say when I look at this game, it just feels like a very close game without much between the sides. I would have the draw shorter than 3.9 here and I think that stands out as the best bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblLev
UDINESE V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday as Udinese host AC Milan. If there is an example of the definition of a classic mid-table Serie A side it is Udinese. Between the 2016/17 and 2022/23 season they finished between 12th and 14th! Things might change this season though as they are struggling. They start this weekend sitting down in 16th, just one point off the bottom three. Udinese are surely too good to go down as that classic saying goes, but for the time being they are in a relegation battle. AC Milan haven’t played the best football this season, but they have got a lot of good results while others have dropped points. They aren’t in the title race, nine points behind Inter Milan, but they do have a very nice cushion in the top four battle. I can’t see them losing that third spot now which is a nice result for them – bar the ten point deduction for Juventus last season they would have been out of the top four. They are massively over-performing at both ends of the pitch however – their average xG created is 1.47 but their actual goals scored is 1.90. Their average xG conceded is 1.36 but the actual figure is 1.05. Eventually they will start dropping points as the season goes on.
Udinese are the opposite. They are massively under-performing. Their average xG created is 1.27 which isn’t too impressive but it’s basically mid-table level where they usually finish. They aren’t taking those chances though, their actual goals scored average is only 1.05. They are also conceding more goals than they should – their average xG conceded is 1.41 but their goals conceded average is 1.6. A quick glance at the table might suggest AC Milan should win easily, but I don’t see it being that straightforward. The market agrees, it has AC Milan as the odds on favourites but they aren’t too short at 1.94 while Udinese are 4.4 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Udinese have only been beaten here three times this season, by Juventus, Fiorentina and Lazio. They actually managed to beat AC Milan 1-0 away from home earlier in the season too; they have picked up a lot of draws this season and I think they can grind out another draw here. AC Milan have been very good at home, but most of their dropped points have come away this season and the draw looks a very good bet at 3.85.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiAcm
