SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UNION BERLIN v DORTMUND, MONZA v ROMA and VALENCIA v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V DORTMUND
2.30pm It was a quiet week in Europe this week with no Champions League action, but we have a big Saturday ahead on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga with Dortmund, Roma and Real Madrid all away from home. Will we see a winning treble from the big three sides? We kick off the action in the Bundesliga with Union Berlin hosting Dortmund, last season this was a huge top four clash but Union Berlin have been closer to the relegation battle this season than the top four! I know they massively over-performed last season but the drop this season has been quite dramatic. They’ve picked up two wins from their last four games and two draws as well, so they have moved eight points away from the relegation zone now. I don’t think they were ever in real danger of going down, it was always likely that they would pull away eventually but obviously they were feeling the pressure. The bottom three in the Bundesliga look set this season, the only question is who finishes in the relegation playoff spot. Dortmund have also been under pressure, but that’s for a good reason rather than a bad one – after losses for Dortmund and RB Leipzig last weekend Dortmund still have a one point advantage as they sit in fourth.
This is a game that Dortmund will be expected to win, but they have put in some poor performances away from home this season. Dortmund are the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on given the worries away from home. The Dortmund win is 2.14 with Union Berlin 3.85 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Union Berlin have been playing poor football this season, their place in the table reflects their performance level despite the massive drop. They only have an average xG created of 1.16 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga. They have been solid at the back at home though – their average xG conceded at home is 1.23 compared to a whopping 1.71 away. Dortmund’s average xG conceded away from home is also big at 1.61, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 2.14 here. It will be interesting to see what we get from Sancho after the manager said he must do better – will he throw his toys out of the pram again like Manchester United! I feel with Union being solid at the back at home, the draw is a nice option here at 3.65 in what should be a close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniDor
MONZA V ROMA
5pm We move to Serie A next as Monza host Roma. This is a very similar market to the Bundesliga game above; almost identical prices within a few ticks of each other! Roma are the favourites at 2.16 with Monza 3.85 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Roma have won five of their six Serie A matches since we got the shock news that Jose Mourinho was sacked – not many seen that coming given all the support he had in Rome, but obviously it has worked given their results. Their only loss came against Inter Milan too which is understandable given how good they have been this season. The recent run from Roma has put them up to sixth and within four points of Bologna in fourth. In fairness, around sixth is usually the level of Roma so it will be interesting to see can they improve upon that – it’s going to be an interesting battle for that fourth spot anyway! Monza sit comfortably in mid-table, and they have been on a good run recently too. They are unbeaten in five Serie A games, including a 4-2 win here over AC Milan. They have struggled to create a lot of chances this season, their average xG created is only 1.27 and they have been conceding more chances than that; hence why they sit in mid-table.
Roma were struggling to create chances under Mourinho this season too; I think that was the main reason he was sacked. Their average xG created this season is only 1.14 which is shockingly poor for a club like Roma – Monza have a higher figure as I noted above! What Mourinho did was keep them solid at the back, their average xG conceded was in the top three all season however it has dropped down to fifth spot since he left. Roma are obviously playing a more open and attacking game now, which seems to be suiting them. You have to note that they’ve had a reasonably easy fixture list though. They have beaten sides in the relegation battle apart from Torino last time out. This should be a good test for them, and I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.16 on them. Very similar feeling here as the Dortmund price above – I would opt for Under 2.5 goals here but the new Roma tactics puts me off that, and I feel the draw is a good option at 3.5. This should be a tight game, I don’t see much between the sides.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnzRom
VALENCIA V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a very interesting Saturday in the markets as Valencia host Real Madrid. The away win is odds on here, and I have to say it’s my best bet of the day. Real Madrid at 1.69 is a much better value bet compared to the Dortmund or Roma prices above in my opinion. If you fancy Valencia, they are trading 5.9 with the draw 4.0 at the time of writing. After dropping points against Rayo Vallecano, Real Madrid got back to winning ways with a hard fought 1-0 win over Sevilla last weekend – the gap at the top of the table is six points and Real look in full control now. Girona have been dropping points lately, and Barcelona have been well off the pace this season. Valencia are sitting comfortably in mid-table but there are some massive red flags in their performance figures. Their average xG created is only 0.89 which is the second worst attacking figure in La Liga this season – they are one of only three sides with an average xG of under 1.0. Although they do create more chances at home, their average xG created is still under 1.0 at home this season – what has saved them is the fact that they have been solid at the back.
However, they come up against the best attacking side in La Liga here. I’d have Real much shorter than 1.69, even sub 1.6 here. I don’t see Valencia causing them many problems at all going forward, and I feel the best result for Valencia will be a draw. They have been rock solid at the back, and that has got them to be where they are in the table – their average xG conceded is 1.24 which is very respectable. That’s in the top five for defensive figures, just a little behind Barcelona for example. Real Madrid have an average xG conceded of only 1.06, so Both Teams Not To Score could be a very good option at 1.92 too. It’s effectively a Real clean sheet and takes away how many goals Real will score rather than having a strong opinion on Over/Under 2.5 goals. I couldn’t put anyone off Both Teams Not To Score at the odds, I feel it’s an appealing bet, but I really like the Real bet at 1.96. They have been scoring plenty of goals this season and have the talent to cut through this stubborn Valencia defence. When that happens, Valencia don’t have much firepower to respond and at 1.69 I’m very happy with a Max Bet on Real.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Valencia at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VlnRea
