SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v UNION BERLIN, DORTMUND v RB LEIPZIG and MONZA v AC MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V UNION BERLIN
2.30pm We have a fascinating Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! It was a hectic midweek from Germany and Spain with the DFB Pokal and Copa del Rey but we’re back with some crackers from the Bundesliga and Serie A this weekend. Undoubtedly the highlight is Dortmund hosting RB Leipzig, but we kick off the day with Bayern Munich hosting Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. It’s been a case of back-to-business for Bayern Munich so far this season with Bayer Leverkusen dropping points – Bayern already have a nice lead at the top of the table, and as I noted in my preview of the Leverkusen game, there’s such a big gulf in class between the top sides and the rest in the Bundesliga that a five point gap even at this early stage of the season will be hard to chase down. Bayern have been ticking their boxes nicely domestically, but they have been having a terrible time in the Champions League where they look in real danger of getting themselves into a tricky position. They’ll be expected to win this game though, and they are the red-hot favourites.
Bayern are trading as short as 1.21 with Union Berlin 16.0 and the draw is 8.6 at the time of writing. That 1.21 is one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend. It wasn’t too long ago that this fixture was a top of the table clash in the middle of the 2022/23 season when Union actually managed to get a Champions League spot; they went massively backwards last season to finish one spot outside of the relegation spots, and now they come into this weekend sitting in fourth! Talk about yo-yoing up the table. Union have been trying to keep games as tight as possible, and they’ve been rock solid at the back – they have the second best defensive figure behind Bayern and they are conceding less than one goal per game on average. The big difference is going forward though; Bayern have an average xG created of 2.13 compared to Union at only 1.24! I can see Bayern winning but Union keeping the score line respectable, and I’m happy with a small position on Under 3.5 goals at 1.83.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BynUni
DORTMUND V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next for the highlight of Saturday in my opinion as Dortmund host RB Leipzig. Dortmund definitely come into this game needing a win – they have dropped plenty of points already this season and after another loss away to Augsburg last weekend they sit outside the top six. They are already seven points behind Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig at the top of the table, and even if they only had a very small chance, they won’t be challenging for the title this season. When Erik ten Hag got sacked as Manchester United manager this week, there was talk straight away that he might end up at Dortmund very soon – I don’t see that myself to be honest! All of Dortmund’s issues this season have come away from home – they’ve won their four home games and haven’t managed an away win yet. They are clearly more confident in front of their own fans – in fairness who wouldn’t be with the Yellow Wall behind them! This should be an interesting game; while RB Leipzig have been the only club to match Bayern Munich for points this season, their performance level isn’t impressive.
If you just looked at the table and then looked at the odds, you might get a surprise here. Dortmund come into the game as the favourites at 2.32 with RB Leipzig 3.15 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. At first glance, I feel many punters will feel the 3.15 is too big on Leipzig here. However, their under-lining numbers tell a different story. They are actually marginally conceding more chances than they are creating at the moment – they are massively over-performing at both ends of the pitch. Their average xG created id 1.32 but their actual goals scored figure is 1.75. Their average xG conceded is 1.37 but their actual figure is just 0.38. Eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles and sides will take their chances against them. As for Dortmund, they are creating more but they have been exceptionally sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.17 is the third best defensive figure in the Bundesliga, but their actual figure is 1.75. I feel we’ll see an open game here, and Both Teams To Score is the best option at 1.48 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DrtRbl
MONZA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday night as Monza host AC Milan. With the Real Madrid fixture postponed in La Liga, this fixture will get all the focus! AC Milan have had a very interesting start to the season – they lost again midweek at home to Napoli and that left them sitting outside the top six, already 11 points behind league leaders Napoli. They have a game in hand, but that’s a terrible position considering they won the Milan Derby this season for the first time in years too. The strange thing about AC Milan this season is they are playing good football but they just aren’t getting the results. They have the second best attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.2 is a respectable figure too – basically in the top seven defensive figures. They just aren’t getting over the line in games. This is a game that they will be expected to win though, and we have an interesting market with AC Milan the odds on favourites. I’m sure there will be plenty of willing layers at odds on away from home, but Monza are involved in the relegation battle at the moment!
AC Milan are trading 1.75 with Monza 5.5 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Monza have only managed eight points from their ten games thus far – only one win is the worst return along with Parma and Genoa this season. They are sitting just outside the relegation zone at the moment, but they have the same amount of points as Venezia and Lecce. In my opinion, Monza look in big trouble this season – they have the worst attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of only 0.83. That’s actually one of the worst attacking figures in Europe this season. What is getting them points is that they are very solid at the back, and their best chance of a result here is a 0-0 draw in my opinion. I know AC Milan haven’t been getting the results they deserve this season, but they are too big to ignore here at 1.75. Slight worries about them being away from home, Monza being solid at the back and failing to get over the line in games will reduce my stakes to three points from a five star NAP, but they are still a confident bet to finish Saturday.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Monza at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnzAcm
