SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AC MILAN v JUVENTUS and CELTA VIGO v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
5pm It’s a fantastic Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have action from Serie A and La Liga, and we kick off the day with a blockbuster from Serie A as AC Milan host Juventus. We currently have an exceptionally close title race in Serie A – Napoli come into this weekend sitting top, but there’s only two points between the top six as Juventus sit in sixth. Juventus are the only side unbeaten in Serie A this season; but they have had far too many draws – their backers have only collected six times from twelve games. AC Milan are just behind Juventus sitting in seventh; they are actually on the backfoot as they are six points away from Juventus. They have a game in hand, but they need a good run now off the back of the International break. AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.2 with Juventus 3.9 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Looking the under-lining numbers, AC Milan should be higher in the table but they just haven’t been getting the results. They have the second best attacking figure – their average xG conceded of 1.23 isn’t too bad, but that is a mid-table figure in Serie A.
Juventus have been exceptional at the back – they have an average xG conceded of just 0.82. That’s the best defensive figure from all the elite leagues in Europe, never mind just Serie A. While they have been rock solid at the back, they have clearly had issues up front – their average xG created is only 1.30 which is a mid-table figure. They struggled to create good quality chances and score goals in the second half of last season, and that’s carried on into this season. They are clearly hard to beat, but they haven’t exactly been impressive. It’s easy to see why AC Milan are the favourites, but I do expect to see them trading higher than 2.2 when I clicked into the market. Considering how difficult Juventus have been to score against, that price looks a little short with AC Milan struggling to get over the line in games too. Under 2.5 goals looks a nice option at 1.77 too; I thought the same when Juventus faced Inter Milan but that finished 4-4! From a value point of view, I’m very happy with an AC Milan lay here at 2.2 – I expect the game to be closer than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (Liability) AC Milan to beat Juventus at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilJve
CELTA VIGO V BARCELONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday night with Barcelona in action as they travel to take on Celta Vigo. Barcelona had a massive setback prior to the International break when losing 1-0 to Real Sociedad – that leaves them six points ahead of Real Madrid, but Real Madrid have a game in hand. Suddenly the gap could be three points if Real win that game in hand – Barcelona were in a much more comfortable position before that Sociedad loss! The worrying thing from a Barcelona point of view was the performance – they just didn’t get going, finished the game with an xG created under 1.0 and can’t really complain with the result. There’s only one point between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo at the moment, the two clubs have a very similar performance level this season. However, a massive difference is Sociedad have been solid at the back, but Celta Vigo have been quite sloppy. Barcelona were 1.8 to beat Real Sociedad, and they aren’t far off that price here; only seven ticks shorter. Barcelona are trading 1.74 with Celta Vigo 4.7 and the draw is the same price at 4.7 at the time of writing.
It’s been hard to fault Barcelona this season – they’ve thrown in the odd poor performance away from home, but they currently have the best attacking and defensive figures in La Liga – hard to argue with that! The most disappointing thing about the Sociedad loss was how little they created because of the volume of goals Barcelona have been scoring this season – even a 4-0 win in El Clasico. Celta Vigo have been very sloppy at the back; their average xG conceded of 1.29 is a mid-table figure but they have been conceding more than that. Only two sides have actually conceding more goals than Celta Vigo this season – Espanyol and Real Valladolid; two sides in the relegation zone. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here, but in my opinion the 1.74 on Barcelona is too big to ignore here with Celta there for the taking at the back. Barcelona have, for the most part, been superb going forward and they can claim three points here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona to beat Celta Vigo at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelBar
