SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RB LEIPZIG v BAYER LEVERKUSEN, NAPOLI v JUVENTUS and REAL VALLADOLID v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
2.30pm It’s a Saturday from Europe right out of the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some top class action with huge clashes in the Bundesliga and Serie A, along with Real Madrid in action in La Liga to finish the day. We kick off the day in the Bundesliga as RB Leipzig host Bayer Leverkusen – this is a massive game for both sides with Leipzig coming into the weekend sitting one point outside the top four while Bayer Leverkusen are still four points behind Bayern Munich at the top of the table. After a slow start to the season, it appears Bayer Leverkusen have found their mojo again but that four point gap is going to be hard to close given the gulf in class between the top two and the rest in the Bundesliga. They just have to keep winning and hope Bayern drop points along the line. Leverkusen have already won some tricky fixtures since the Christmas break, and this is another one that they’ll have to overcome. Bayer Leverkusen come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.97 with RB Leipzig 3.9 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
While Leipzig are coming into the matchday only one point off the top four, their position in the table doesn’t reflect their performance level. They’ve actually been quite poor looking at their numbers, and they have been exposed in the Champions League. Their average xG created is only 1.27 this season which is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga. They have been massively over-performing because they have been very poor at the back too. Their average xG conceded is 1.54 is a low-to-mid table defensive figure in the Bundesliga. If you looked at the table, you might have been expecting a more open market here but when you look at how the sides have been playing – I’d have Leverkusen shorter here. Their average xG created is 1.84 which is the second best attacking figure behind Bayern, and they have the second best defensive figure too. Leipzig are there for the taking in my opinion, and the Leverkusen win at 1.97 is worth a Five Star NAP at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayer Leverkusen to beat RB Leipzig at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiLev
NAPOLI V JUVENTUS
5pm Next we move to Serie A for another cracker from Europe as Napoli host Juventus. Napoli are hanging onto top spot in the title race at the moment; they come into this matchday with a three point advantage over Inter Milan, who do have a game in hand. Juventus recorded an excellent win last weekend over AC Milan and they remain the only side in Serie A still unbeaten this season. You would think with a stat like that they would be close to the top of the table, but they are 13 points behind Napoli coming into this game. Juventus have been draw specialists – their backers have only collected eight times in 21 Serie A games this season. Napoli come into the game as the favourites at 2.24 with Juventus 4.2 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. It’s easy to understand why Juventus have been struggling to get over the line in games – they have really struggled to create good value chances and score goals – as was the case last season too. Their average xG created is 1.42 now which is a mid-table figure, but that has been improving recently in fairness to them – it was lower before Christmas!
Ironically, Juventus actually have a marginally better attacking figure than Napoli – their average xG created is 1.39. Obviously they are over-performing up front, and that’s why they sit top of the table. As I have said before, it’s hard to begrudge Napoli a little luck in front of goal this season given they finished last season with the best attacking figure but ended up in mid-table. Both sides have been exceptionally strong at the back – both sides are in the top four defensive figures and they’ve been conceding less than one goal a game on average this season. Obviously with those stats in mind, your thoughts go straight to Under 2.5 goals – that is trading 1.58 which looks value in my opinion. While both sides have been scoring over their attacking figure, they haven’t exactly been creating a huge amount of chances and they have clearly been brilliant at the back. We’re going to have a very cagey game here in my opinion, and I’m happy to be on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapJve
REAL VALLADOLID V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday with the Champions Real Madrid in action as they travel to take on Real Valladolid. Everyone bar Real Valladolid fans will be expecting a win for Real Madrid here – even some Valladolid fans will be expecting a Real win! Valladolid come into this weekend sitting at the bottom of the La Liga table, and despite two wins from their five games they are still adrift at the bottom. They are five points off Alaves in 17th coming into this matchday – it’s hard to see them going on a run that bridges that gap and then they actually go past other sides too. It’s a different story for Real however; they are at the top of the table after Atletico Madrid lost last weekend to Leganes – that was a massive shock with Leganes involved in the relegation battle this season! Real now have a two point advantage over Atletico and a seven point advantage over Barcelona – after being nine points behind, they are well on their way to retaining their title. They’ve had a bit of drama with Mbappe getting criticism for changing their system and shape, but it’s hard to not see them winning the title again from here.
It’s no surprise that Real Madrid come into this game as the red-hot favourites at 1.29, if you fancy a shock then Real Valladolid are trading 11.5 with the draw 6.8 at the time of writing. The under-lining numbers from Valladolid this season are quite bleak – they have the second worst attacking figure in La Liga with an average xG created under 1.0, so I feel this is a case of how many goals can Real score rather than will they win. However, the only side with a lower attacking figure than Valladolid is Leganes, and they managed to beat Atletico last weekend! Valladolid have been conceding very close to two goals a game on average this season, so Real can cover the handicap on the way to winning in my opinion. They are trading 1.77 -1.5 goals which looks cracking value. Another option is Both Teams Not To Score at 2.01 because Real have been very solid at the back with Valladolid so limied. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but I like the handicap option the most.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Real Valladolid at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VldRma
