SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v INTER MILAN, REAL BETIS v REAL MADRID and ATLETICO MADRID v ATHLETIC BILBAO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V INTER MILAN
5pm We have a blockbuster Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have three top class fixtures from Serie A and La Liga to go through – starting with a massive top of the table clash in Serie A! Napoli host Inter Milan in what will be an absolutely fascinating battle – Napoli come into the game without a win in their last four, and finally last weekend Inter Milan jumped over them to lead by one point. Long-term readers will know that Napoli have been massively over-performing this season to be where they are, but as I said it’s hard to begrudge them a little luck this season given they finish mid-table last season with the highest attacking figure in Serie A! This season it’s the opposite – they are in the title battle with an average xG created of just 1.37 which is mid-table standard in Italy. Napoli have been really successful at the back this season – they have conceded the fewest goals this season along with Juventus, and their average xG conceded is in the top four defensive figures too. We have a long way to go in the title race of course, but you get the feeling if Inter win here they have one hand on the title, maybe even more.
Inter Milan have been playing some very good football this season, and it would actually be very surprising if Napoli could pip them to the title. Inter have the second best attacking figure and the third best defensive figure – just marginally better than Napoli. We have a reasonably open betting heat – Inter Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.46 with Napoli 3.35 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Napoli deserve a lot of credit for getting as many results as they have managed this season, but I would have Inter a little shorter here – they have been much better going forward. Napoli actually haven’t been that impressive creating chances when you look at their stats. It’s hard to see an open and entertaining game here though; the stakes couldn’t be higher, and both sides have been exceptionally solid at the back. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 and that looks a very nice position in what should be a cagey game. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Inter at 2.46 but I feel Unders is worth a confident bet at the odds to kick off an immense Saturday.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NpiInt
REAL BETIS V REAL MADRID
5.30pm We move over to La Liga next to continue a thrilling title race! Real Betis host Real Madrid, and every game is a must win game for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid at the moment! As things stand coming into the weekend, Barcelona and Real Madrid are level on points with Atletico Madrid just one point behind. After finishing a very strong fifth in 2021/22 and winning the Copa del Rey; it really felt like they were ready to take the next step into the top four with Sevilla sitting in the relegation zone by the middle of the 2022/23. Real Betis have almost gone backwards since though, and they’ve been hanging around the sixth or seventh spot since. There have been signs of improvement this season – they have the fifth best attacking figure which is an average xG of 1.52. Considering they went through some woeful times creating very little that’s definitely a positive – they are still struggling to convert those chances though and they’ve been fluffing their lines in front of goal this season. Despite the problems converting their chances, this could be a tricky afternoon for Real Madrid – Betis have been very solid at the back with home advantage.
They have an average xG conceded of just 1.05 when they have home advantage which is an impressive figure, they beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 here and drew 2-2 with Barcelona earlier in the season. Real Madrid had to grind out a 2-0 win against them when they had home advantage at the start of the season. It’s no surprise to see Real Madrid come into this game as the favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers. Real Madrid are trading 1.83 with Real Betis 4.6 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. You’d have to lean towards Real here just because they’ve been playing so well recently, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.83 – it’s hard to make the case that they should be much shorter given the Betis performance levels at home this season. Under 2.5 goals landed when the sides met earlier in the season, and I was very surprised to see that trading as big as 2.6 when I clicked into the market. I’d expect Betis to sit back and Real to have to work very hard to grind out a win; I’m very happy to take 2.6 on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BtsRea
ATLETICO MADRID V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish Saturday as Atletico Madrid host Athletic Bilbao. This is another intriguing fixture today, and the pressure is on Atletico Madrid in the title race. They come into the game as the favourites at 2.1 with Athletic Bilbao 4.0 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Bilbao have been having an excellent run lately – they have taken Girona’s spot in the top four with both hands and with no signs of Sevilla coming back into the fold, they do have an opportunity to make that fourth spot their own for a few seasons. The extra money from the Champions League along with the fact that will attract a higher quality level of player could transform the club. They’ve been exceptionally tough to beat this season; they’ve only lost three times – one of those games was against Atletico Madrid earlier in the season! Bilbao bring a run of sixteen games unbeaten in La Liga into this game, and they have some impressive under-lining numbers too. The major improvement this season has been their away performances; they are creating more than they are conceding away from home for the first time!
Athletic Bilbao have a better attacking figure compared to Atletico – they have an average xG created of 1.55 compared to Atletico at 1.46. They’ve also been better at the back – Bilbao have the best defensive figure in La Liga this season with an average xG conceded of 1.03. Atletico are sitting in mid-table with a figure of 1.26; so far they have been getting away with things this season because they’ve only conceded close to half of those chances. It’s just been classic Atletico and Diego Simeone this season! They have just grinded out so many results – that being said we saw absolute carnage in the Copa del Rey midweek with a 4-4 draw against Barcelona! It’s hard to see an open game here, despite the drama that Atletico were involved in during the week – Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and that’s an appealing position. Both sides have been incredibly solid at the back this season, and I can’t see Bilbao making the game too open. Although the Unders position is appealing – indeed I couldn’t put anyone off it here – the Atletico lay looks the best value option at 2.1. Bilbao have been very impressive this season, and I feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest here.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlBlb
