SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v ATLETICO MADRID, NAPOLI v CAGLIARI and VALENCIA v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V ATLETICO MADRID
3.15pm We have a cracking Saturday in Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with action from La Liga and Serie A! Atletico Madrid, Napoli and Barcelona are all in action and we have three interesting markets to go through. We start the day in La Liga with Athletic Bilbao hosting Atletico Madrid – this should be a very close game, and we have an exceptionally open market. Athletic Bilbao are the favourites at 2.54 with Atletico Madrid 2.98 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Bilbao are having an excellent season, and they start the weekend sitting in fifth – there’s a bit of a gap to the top four so I don’t see them competing for Champions League football but they should be able to get a European spot. They finished eighth last season; the first spot outside of Europe! Atletico Madrid are in third with Girona still sitting top of the table after beating Barcelona last weekend Atletico are seven points behind Girona, but they do have a game in hand. They are also five points behind Real Madrid – a win in their game in hand would put them two points behind Real.
Surely Girona will drop points at some stage, but how long can we keep saying that before they are real title challengers! Atletico Madrid have dropped points four times this season, and all of those games have come away from home. One of those games came against Barcelona at the start of the month which is obviously a very difficult fixture, but the worrying thing from an Atletico point of view is that they are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. It’s only marginal – 0.06 in the difference – but with Bilbao playing so well this season, and especially well at home you can see why they come into the game as the favourites. Everything about this game screams a very close and tactical affair; the draw is a tempting bet at 3.5 but I do like Under 2.5 goals at 1.97. I really thought this would be shorter – four of the last five meetings between the sides have had Under 2.5 goals and the 1.97 looks cracking value. I feel it’s worth a Max Bet given the odds!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilAti
NAPOLI V CAGLIARI
5pm Next we move to Serie A as Napoli host Cagliari. Napoli come into the game as the red-hot favourites; they are trading as short as 1.33 at the time of writing with Cagliari 11.0 and the draw is 6.0. That 1.33 is the shortest price in Serie A this weekend! Napoli are in trouble this season though; they lost again last weekend and they have dropped down to sixth now. The odd thing about Napoli this season is that they are still playing quality football, but they just aren’t getting results. Their average xG created is 1.89, which believe it or not is the best attacking figure in Serie A this season! They are scoring under that average, but not by a massive amount. They have been solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is just 1.14 which is the fourth best figure in the league – basically it’s a big surprise to see Napoli not challenging for the title, never mind out of the top four! They have had a difficult fixture list with back-to-back losses against Inter Milan and Juventus, but they are now a whopping 14 points off Inter at the top of the table.
There’s a massive gulf in class between the sides here – Cagliari are in the relegation battle. They start the weekend sitting down in 16th just one point off the bottom three. They managed a win last weekend too which took them out of the danger zone for the time being. Cagliari are playing average football, but judging by their performance level they should avoid relegation. They are only marginally conceding more chances than they are creating; basically mid-table form. With Napoli struggling to get results so much this season, I would definitely be avoiding the 1.33 for any Acca this weekend! We’ll have to have a look around the side markets for some value, and I feel Under 2.5 goals is worth backing at 2.52! Napoli are clearly struggling for results, and Cagliari do try to keep things as tight as possible. I feel this is worth a small bet at value odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapCag
VALENCIA V BARCELONA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day as Valencia host Barcelona. It’s fair to say that after last weekend’s loss to Girona, Barcelona are under pressure in the title race! They start the weekend seven points behind Girona at the top of the table, and probably more importantly five points behind Real Madrid having played the same amount of games. Everyone is expecting Girona to fall away at some stage, but to their massive credit they just keep winning games. I would suggest Girona have a better chance of winning the title at the moment compared to Barcelona, which is an incredible achievement! Valencia will be hoping to pile more misery on Barcelona, but Barcelona do come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.7 with Valencia 5.5 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Valencia made an excellent start to the season results wise, but they have lost three of their last four games. Anyone who is a fan of xG figures probably saw that coming however, as Valencia are one of the worst performing sides in La Liga this season.
They only have an average xG created figure of 0.89 which is the second worst attacking figure in the league. They are one of only three sides with an average xG of under 1.0. Where they have been good is at the back – they have tried to keep games as tight as possible and their average xG conceded is only 1.26 which isn’t bad. Their attacking figure is woeful though; compare that to Barcelona at 1.98! Barcelona are also marginally better at the back because their average xG conceded is only 1.21. I respect the fact that Valencia are rock solid at the back, but they are creating very little at home and I feel the 1.7 on Barcelona is too big here. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but the 1.7 is worth a confident bet in my opinion. There’s a big gulf in class between the sides performance level wise, and Barcelona can get the job done here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Valencia at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VlnBar
