SATURDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between MALLORCA v GRANADA, CADIZ v ELCHE and REAL BETIS v BARCELONA all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MALLORCA V GRANADA
1pm We’re closing in to the end of the season now, and we have a huge Saturday in La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Real Betis v Barcelona is the highlight fixture tonight, but by the end of today we’re going to have a much better idea who’s going into the final days of the relegation battle under immense pressure. We start the day with Mallorca hosting Granada. You don’t need me to tell you that this is a must win game for both! This is basically the definition of a relegation six pointer. Granada start the weekend sitting in the bottom three, but they are just one point behind Cadiz and Mallorca ahead of them. Getafe have moved away a little – they have 36 points and a four point cushion over Mallorca and Cadiz – they would have to lose their last four games and have results go against them to go down so it’s a bottom five heading into the final few weeks. Both sides have been grinding out results recently with Mallorca winning two of their last four games and Granada only losing twice in their last six. That win for Mallorca over Atletico Madrid was a big shock but a huge bonus for them, and then obviously the six over Alaves was a big six pointer in the relegation battle too.
Granada have been trying to make themselves as tough to beat as possible lately, and I would expect them to come into this game with very negative tactics too. Whenever they have opened up this season they seem to have got hammered. The games against Sevilla and Levante recently turned into open affairs and they conceded four goals twice. Mallorca will be delighted to have home advantage in such a big game in the relegation battle – a win here would really be massive and open up a reasonably nice gap to the bottom three with Cadiz as a little buffer too. Their performances at home have been much better compared to away from home. On the road they have only managed eight points from 17 games! If you took the home form table, they wouldn’t be far off mid-table. It’s easy to see why they are favourites here, but I feel that they are priced correctly at 2.04. It’s hard to say that they should be odds on here. Mallorca haven’t exactly been banging in goals for fun lately, and they have been trying to keep games as tight as possible too. I think we’ll see a very cagey game here and under 2.5 goals looks the call at 1.76.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalGra
CADIZ V ELCHE
5.30pm Next we have Cadiz taking on Elche, in another huge game in the relegation battle. Cadiz fans will be watching the Mallorca v Granada game earlier in the day given that they sit in between those two sides! I think they will be hoping for a Mallorca win there given Granada are sitting in the bottom three at the moment one point behind Cadiz, a Granada win would likely be the worst result for Cadiz, and a draw wouldn’t be too bad. Cadiz have managed some massive unexpected points recently in their battle to stay up – they have been sitting in the bottom three for a while but they managed to beat Barcelona 1-0 and then got a 1-1 draw with Sevilla last weekend. As I said in my preview of that game, Cadiz are playing their best football of the season at the moment and it’s a good time to support them. In between the Barcelona and Sevilla games, they lost 3-2 to Athletic Bilbao but they finished the game with an xG of 3.62 and were very unlucky to lose. Elche have had “involved” in the relegation battle at times this season, but they arrive into this fixture happily sitting in mid-table under no pressure at all. That’s probably a good thing for Cadiz as Elche have nothing to play for, however Elche are unbeaten in their last three. This should be a good game, and the big question from a betting point of view is should Cadiz be odds on favourites?
I expected Cadiz to be favourites – Elche are an average La Liga side and given Cadiz have home advantage and they are playing their best football of the season at the moment when you look at the stats it’s easy to see why the market likes Cadiz. I didn’t expect to see them as short as 1.77 though – that’s definitely on the short side in my opinion, so short I would consider laying them from a value point of view. Cadiz have the worst home record of any side in La Liga this season – they sit rock bottom of the home form table and I’m not sure I’d want to back them at odds on against any side at home. I don’t know what has gone wrong for them this season at home, but it just isn’t working for them. I’m going to keep stakes very small here because this is purely from a betting point of view, but I can’t get away from the Cadiz lay in value terms. Betting is all about taking the value prices, and Cadiz shouldn’t be this short. I know that they are playing very well at the moment so that’s why stakes are low, but the 1.77 has to be laid.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Cadiz to beat Elche at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadElc
REAL BETIS V BARCELONA
8pm Although all the relegation drama is fun to watch, we finish the day with the highlight fixture of the day as Real Betis host Barcelona. This is a massive game for Real Betis. It looked like their top four dream was over in the last few weeks, but Atletico Madrid have opened the door again. Unfortunately for Real Betis, they haven’t been able to walk through the door yet – they haven’t managed a win from their last three games and on paper they weren’t difficult fixtures either. I expected the Real Sociedad game to be very close, but they should be beating Elche and Getafe. Nevertheless, Atletico have given them another chance as they lost last weekend to Athletic Bilbao. That means Real Betis start this weekend just three points behind Atletico and they both have the same goal difference. I know beating Barcelona is a massive task, but given Atletico Madrid have to play Real Madrid on Sunday – this could be a fantastic week for Real Betis! With all the chances they have blown already this season over the last few weeks, maybe we should just expect a Barcelona win here!
I know I’ve said this a few times recently, but backing Barcelona at the moment is all about picking the right moments. They aren’t as good as they once were, and you need to be careful when pricing them up now. It’s easy to compare their current prices to their prices when they had Messi etc and think “I’ve never seen Barcelona this big in the market” but that’s only because they are a different team. I said last week that they were going through their first rough patch under Xavi and that they needed to win against Mallorca. They deliver a win, but their performance still wasn’t great and I would suggest that they are there for the taking at the moment. I think if we got a performance from Real Betis at the same level that they were playing at in the opening half of the season then I’d be confidence in a Betis win, but it’s also fair to say that the Betis level has definitely dropped over the last month or so. Despite Betis being a little average lately, they still managed to win the Copa Del Rey and I believe Barcelona are too short here at 2.3. They just aren’t playing well enough at the moment to trade that price away to a club like Betis. I expect a very close game here, and perhaps the most likely outcome is a draw but from a value point of view I’m very happy with the Barcelona lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Real Betis at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetBar
