SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v GIRONA, MALLORCA v REAL MADRID and CADIZ v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V GIRONA
1pm We have a fantastic Saturday from La Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! The top four are all in action and we have three very interesting markets too. We also have Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona all involved in the Champions League Quarter-Finals as well, and in between the two legs they could easily take their eye off the ball domestically. We kick off the action with a cracker as Atletico Madrid host Girona. It’s been a good little run for Atletico recently; they are in a battle for fourth with Athletic Bilbao but put a two point cushion between themselves and Bilbao before the break for the Copa del Rey Final – which Bilbao won! Then they started the Champions League Quarter-Finals well on Wednesday night with a 2-1 win over Dortmund. That was positive, but that goal from Dortmund in the 81st minute could dearly cost them. As I said going into that game, home advantage was going to be absolutely key in that tie. Atletico have dropped points twelve times in La Liga this season, and ten of those of have come away from home so they still have a lot of work to do.
They face a Girona side here who have had their dream season; they are seven points ahead of Atletico sitting in third but the wheels have definitely started to come off recently. They have been massively over-performing in fairness, and perhaps their results are now starting to reflect their performance levels. Their average xG created is 1.49 while they have been scoring an average of over two goals per game! After such a red-hot start to the season, they’ve only managed three wins from their last eight La Liga games – not the worst result but they were involved in the title race before the start of that run. A 4-0 hammering against Real Madrid put them in their place! Atletico Madrid are trading 2.08 with Girona 3.75 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably low, but Atletico are worth backing with home advantage – it seems a good time to be against Girona and Atletico have performed much better at home this season; I’d have them a little lower than 2.08.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Girona at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AltGir
MALLORCA V REAL MADRID
5.30pm Next we have Mallorca hosting Real Madrid. This is an interesting situation; Mallorca have to pull themselves up from losing the Copa del Rey Final – their biggest game for many years, while Real Madrid have an eight point advantage at the top of La Liga and are probably more focused on the Manchester City Champions League Quarter-Final at the moment. It will be interesting to see the team news; Real can afford to rest some players here with a view to the second leg next week. Mallorca are six points off the relegation zone and although they have been quite average, they aren’t in danger of going down with that cushion. Real Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Mallorca 5.6 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I know Real have this fixture sandwiched in between their Champions League Quarter-Final, but the 1.78 feels a little too big to ignore here. I know Mallorca had a good run in the Copa del Rey, but their La Liga stats are quite poor. What has them six points away from the bottom three is that they have been more solid at the back.
Going forward Mallorca have been very limited; their average xG created is only 1.09 which is the joint-fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga this season. Being at home isn’t a massive advantage either; their chances created at home are pretty low however granted their results here have been much better than away from home. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides in my opinion – Real Madrid’s average xG created for example is a league best 1.98 which is an exceptionally impressive figure compared to Mallorca’s. It will be interesting to see how Mallorca handle the Copa del Rey Final loss as well; effectively ending their season bar trying to avoid getting dragged into the relegation battle at the last minute. I’m going to keep stakes a little lower than usual here because of the Champions League fixtures, but when you compare the under-lining numbers from both sides I’d have Real much shorter than 1.78.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Mallorca at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MllRma
CADIZ V BARCELONA
8pm We finish Saturday in La Liga with Cadiz hosting Barcelona. Cadiz will be hoping that Barcelona have both eyes on their Champions League Quarter-Final against PSG because every game is a must win game at this stage of the season for Cadiz. They start the weekend sitting in the relegation zone three points behind Celta Vigo and five behind Rayo Vallecano. Cadiz are fighting hard to stay up, but things look pretty bleak for them. They have won two of their last three games, including a win over Atletico Madrid, but it’s really hard to see them chasing down the sides above them looking at the performance levels. Cadiz have an average xG created of 0.90 this season which is the worst attacking figure in La Liga – Celta Vigo’s figure is 1.31 and it’s the exact same for Rayo Vallecano. They are also both conceding less chances than Cadiz too – the most positive thing to say about Cadiz however is that they are clearly fighting. Like I said, they’ll be hoping Barcelona are focused on the Champions League Quarter-Final, and given they are eight points behind Real Madrid they could easily be looking to midweek already!
Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.92 with Cadiz 4.7 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. This is an interesting market – I’m sure there will be some big opinions either side of the book on Barcelona at 1.92! On one hand, they face one of the worst sides in La Liga here and on the other hand, the title race has been effectively over for a while and all eyes will be on that Champions League tie. I think we’ll see some big market movement on the team news here, and that’s definitely a trading angle. When the sides met at the start of the season, Barcelona dominated the game but had to wait until the 82nd minute to finally score. I’d expect Cadiz to employ the same tactics here, and they have been a lot more solid at the back at home too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barcelona grind out a win, but I don’t see an open game here – Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.91. I can see this being a cagey game and Barcelona having to work very hard to win.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadBrc
