LA LIGA / SERIE A PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between GIRONA v SEVILLA, LECCE v AC MILAN and REAL SOCIEDAD v ATHLETIC BILBAO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V SEVILLA
3.15pm The action keeps coming from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have an interesting Saturday ahead from La Liga and Serie A. We kick the day off in La Liga with another huge game for Sevilla as they take on Girona. It’s a sign of how poor Sevilla have been this season that they come into this game as the underdogs – they recorded a huge win last weekend over Getafe which moved them out the bottom three but only just. Cadiz won as well, meaning they are level on points with them and they are only one point ahead of Espanyol too. Apart from Elche who are nailed to the bottom, it looks like it’s going to be a very competitive relegation battle in La Liga this season! I wouldn’t call the win over Getafe impressive from a Sevilla point of view, but they got the job done and finished the game with an xG figure bigger than they conceded. That’s improvement whatever way you look at things, and another win here would really shoot them up the table. While Girona sit in 12th, they are actually only three points ahead of Sevilla sitting in 17th – there’s a lot of sides that can get dragged into the bottom three should results go against them.
For Sevilla, whatever happens this season it’s been a very disappointing season. I’m sure players will try to leave during the summer too with no European football, and it’s been quite the drop in standards since last season. Who would have thought they’d be outside the top four never mind sitting in the bottom three for so long! I would suggest it’s not even clear where their major issue is because they have been poor at the back and up front. They probably have to focus on the issue at the back first and foremost because they are conceding an average xG of 1.9 per game at the moment. While there is only three points between the sides in the table, Girona have clearly been playing the better football when you look at the under-lining numbers. It’s been a while since they were beaten too – they have put six games together unbeaten, obviously broken up by the World Cup break but that run includes Real Madrid too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Girona win, but I feel we see goals here. Both Teams To Score is 1.81 and Girona have been so open recently I think we’ll see BTTS land again in a Girona game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirSev
LECCE V AC MILAN
5pm We move over to Italy next as the Serie A Champions are in action against Lecce. It’s another huge weekend in Serie A with some big games, and I’m sure all AC Milan fans will also be glued to the Napoli v Juventus game on Friday night. Prior to this weekend’s round of fixtures, Napoli have a seven point advantage over Juventus and AC Milan. The gap was even bigger during the World Cup, but Inter Milan did them a favour beating Napoli when the sides returned. AC Milan dropped points again last weekend, but a draw against Roma isn’t the worst result in the grand scheme of the whole season. Probably more worrying was the fact they conceded a bigger xG than they created, especially with home advantage. Lecce are currently sitting in mid-table coming into this game, which they will be absolutely delighted with. They came up from Serie B last season, and usually the sole target for the first season in Serie A is just to stay in it. They are already ten points away from the bottom three, who look to be getting adrift at the moment, and Lecce look safe which is a good achievement. They came back from the World Cup with a brilliant 2-1 win over Lazio, and they have been pretty strong in general at home this season. Inter Milan and Juventus could only win by one goal here, which is an important stat for anyone thinking of a bet on the Handicap here.
Lecce don’t really do anything flashy – they are definitely a side who like to grind out results. When you look at their under-lining numbers you can clearly see that. They might not create much going forward, but they are solid at the back. They probably focus too much on being solid at the back and that costs them a little going forward, but it’s a good strategy to survive really. For clubs like Lecce, staying in Serie A and finishing mid-table is more than acceptable. AC Milan might well grind out a win here, but the 1.69 doesn’t jump off the page as a good value bet. I think the game will be closer than those odds suggest, and I think we’ll see a low scoring game here. Lecce clearly don’t play an open game, and AC Milan will have to work very hard for their chances. The 1.69 is a tempting lay, but 1.9 on Under 2.5 goals looks the best value here. We’ll probably see a 1-0 AC Milan win in the end, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 either. Unders is one of the better bets today in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LecAcm
REAL SOCIEDAD V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish Saturday as Real Sociedad host Athletic Bilbao. This might not be the most glamorous Saturday night fixture for the casual football fan, but it’s a huge fixture for both clubs when you look at the La Liga table. Sevilla dropping like a stone this season has opened the door to the top four, and Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao are two sides that could take that spot. Even if they aren’t good enough for fourth, there’s a chance at the Europa League etc. To be fair, Atletico Madrid have been off the pace this season too, and they dropped out of the top four last week with another loss. Real Sociedad have started their seasons on fire for the last three seasons now, but they have to hold on this time. They start the weekend sitting in third spot, and while they won’t be thinking of Real Madrid and Barcelona, they are four points ahead of Real Betis in fourth which is the real race for them. They have been playing good football this season, creating an average of two goals per game and only conceding one. Stats you’d like to see from a club sitting in the top four, and if they keep playing like that they might be able to stay there.
Athletic Bilbao have been playing good football as well this season. They have very similar stats to Real Sociedad, even better at the back because their average xG conceded this season is only 0.8. That’s why we have such an open market here – Real Sociedad are favourites at 2.5 but you wouldn’t back them with confidence given how good Bilbao have been this season. Bilbao would have been disappointed to drop points in both their La Liga games since returning from the World Cup, but the draw against Real Betis was acceptable away from home and then they should have beaten Osasuna – they created over three times what they conceded. When I look at this fixture all I can see is a very even game. Sociedad might have home advantage, but Bilbao have been so solid at the back this season I think they can get something here. The draw is trading 3.3, and it’s worth backing in a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocAth
