SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews a fantastic day of pre-Christmas football with the games between ATLETICO MADRID v SEVILLA, INTER MILAN v LECCE and ROMA v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V SEVILLA
3.15pm It’s the last day of European action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE before Christmas, and we have a blockbuster Saturday in store! There’s no doubt that Roma v Napoli will be the focus for most football fans today, but we have some cracking action before we get there with Atletico Madrid hosting Sevilla and Inter Milan in action too. We start the day in La Liga with the only fixture this weekend as Atletico Madrid host Sevilla – this is the only game to catch up on in La Liga, and then every side will have played the same numbers of games heading into the short Christmas break. Of course, we had a very busy midweek fixture list in La Liga, with these two having mixed fortunes. Atletico had to settle for a 3-3 draw here against Getafe, and Sevilla won 3-0 away to Granada. That was a much needed win for Sevilla who went ten games without a win prior to breaking that run on Tuesday! When you look at Sevilla’s under-lining numbers, they should be sitting in the top four again but they just haven’t been taking their chances this season.
After being in the relegation battle last season, they were given a lifeline winning the Europa League to start afresh this season. They will miss out on the top four again, and they are knocked out of Europe already too. Their average xG created in La Liga this season is a very high 1.75 – that’s actually the third highest figure only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. They aren’t taking their chances though; their average goals scored average is only 1.35 – that’s quite a gap! Atletico Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites, they are trading 1.55 with Sevilla 6.8 and the draw is 4.6. I felt the 1.41 was short on Atletico in my preview of their game on Tuesday, and I feel the 1.55 is short here too. I fully accept the fact that Sevilla haven’t been taking their chances this season, but hopefully breaking their run without a win midweek gives them some confidence. They are playing good football and creating lots of chances; they just need to convert them! The 1.55 on Atletico is worth laying in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Sevilla at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlSva
INTER MILAN V LECCE
5pm Next we move to Serie A as league leaders Inter Milan host Lecce. It was an excellent weekend for Inter Milan last week – they won away to Lazio and with Juventus dropping points against Genoa, they moved four points clear at the top of the table. A win here, which to be fair is expected, will give them a good Christmas! They come into the game as the red-hot favourites – they are trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing! If you fancy a shock, Lecce are 17.0 with the draw trading 7.2. I feel this is a case of how many goals can Inter Milan score rather than will they win – they seem to be sailing towards another Serie A title in my opinion. Only Napoli are playing at a level even close to Inter Milan, and they have already dropped a host of points this season – last year’s winners are already a whopping 14 points behind Inter at the start of this matchday. Inter have been superb going forward, and at the back. Their average xG created is 1.75 which is the second highest figure in Serie A this season, and then they have the best average xG conceded figure at 1.03. They are just playing rock solid football all over the pitch, not making mistakes and winning games. It’s hard to fault them.
You don’t get any prizes for tipping 1.22 shots, so I’m going to look around the side markets for some value, however I would recommend including Inter in any Acca this weekend. Lecce have been playing average football this season; but they will be very happy with their position in mid-table after finishing down in 16th last season. They are conceding more chances than they are creating – their average xG conceded is in the bottom six this season – but they are creating enough to not worry about going down in my opinion. However, away from home they have been very poor. Their average xG created is just under 1.0, and with Inter being so solid at the back I like Both Teams Not To Score here at 1.63. Inter can keep a clean sheet here on their way to winning – I fully expect them to control the game, and the 1.63 is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntLec
ROMA V NAPOLI
7.45pm What a fixture to end on as we head into Christmas! Roma host Napoli in what should be an absolute cracker. Both sides have been playing some excellent football this season – with Roma losing last weekend they dropped down to eighth, but there really isn’t much between fourth and eighth – just three points! Napoli have been playing superb football but not getting results – they jumped over Roma last weekend with a win over Cagliari but then crashed out of the Coppa Italia midweek with an embarrassing 4-0 loss at home to Frosinone – where that came from is anyone’s guess! Napoli have been the best performing side on paper in Italy this season, but they just aren’t getting results. Their average xG created is 1.91 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A by a decent amount; they have been solid at the back too with an average xG conceded of only 1.14. Their overall performance figure is +0.77, which again is the best in Serie A but they started this weekend sitting a whopping 14 points behind league leaders Inter Milan! It will be interesting to see how they perform against Jose Mourinho’s Roma side, no doubt Mourinho will have them well set up here.
Roma have been superb at the back this season; their average xG conceded is just 1.07 which is the second best defensive figure in Serie A; only behind Inter Milan. Being so focused on being solid at the back has come at a cost though. Their attacking figure of 1.3 is basically mid-table form. An interesting game awaits, and we have a very open betting heat. Napoli are the favourites at 2.64 with Roma 3.1 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Roma have had a very strong record at home this season; they’ve only been beaten here once in Serie A by AC Milan at the start of the season. Napoli are definitely playing the better football, but they just aren’t getting results and it’s hard to support them away from home at 2.64. I expect a very close game here, and the draw is definitely an option at 3.25. As is Under 2.5 goals at 1.75. Four of the last five meetings between the sides have finished with Under 2.5 goals, and Jose Mourinho has Roma really locked in at the back. I’m going to keep stakes limited, because clearly Napoli are creating chances, but they just aren’t winning games. Unders is the best position here in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomNpi
