SERIE A SATURDAY: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v INTER MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V INTER MILAN
5pm It’s a massive weekend from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have two huge fixtures from Serie A and La Liga to enjoy – both immense clashes! We have El Clasico on Sunday, and on Saturday we have Napoli hosting Inter Milan from Serie A. These two took the title battle right down to the final day last season with Napoli just holding off Inter. Everyone has lost points at some stage in Italy this season already, and it looks like we’re going to have another entertaining battle for the title.
As things stand, Napoli and Inter both have 15 points and come into the weekend one point behind AC Milan – they play on Friday night and are 1.31 to beat Pisa, so these two could easily be four points behind by kick off. Inter had a slow start to the season – they lost back-to-back games very early on Matchday Two and Matchday Three but it’s clear when you look at the under-lining numbers that they have been playing the best football. One of those losses was away to Juventus, and then they lost at home to Udinese but dominated the game – just didn’t take their chances.
Inter have an average xG created of 2.02 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A this season – just behind them though is Napoli on 1.88 who have been creating more than last season so far. Both sides have a very similar profile at the back too; Napoli have an average xG conceded of 1.06 and Inter are just a little above that at 1.09 – those two figures sit in the top four defensive figures this season. Everything points to a close game here; as you would expect between the top two really. These two were the two favourites for the title this season, and while AC Milan might be involved for a while it’s clear to see these two are the best in Serie A at the moment.
It’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open betting heat – Inter come into the game as the favourites at 2.5 with Napoli 3.3 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Napoli will be kicking themselves for dropping points and losing away to Torino last weekend – it was just one of those days because they finished the game with 69% possession and an xG of 2.26 – they should have won easily. I know we have an open betting heat, but I would actually have the sides closer together. I think the 2.5 on Inter is a little short considering there’s so little between the sides, and the fact that Napoli have home advantage too. From a value point of view, I’m happy with the Inter lay in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Napoli at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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