SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v TORINO and REAL MADRID v VILLARREAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V TORINO
7.45pm It’s a cracking Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE ! We have action from Serie A and La Liga with the reigning champions both in action – I’m sure the Inter Milan and Real Madrid double will be very popular! We kick off the evening in Serie A with Inter Milan hosting Torino, and Inter come into this game slightly on the back foot this season. They lost the Milan Derby two weeks ago, and coupled with two draws that means they actually come into this game level on points with Torino! They sit in fourth and fifth heading into this weekend, but there’s really nothing between the top sides in Italy at the moment – everyone has dropped points at some stage. What might be a little bit more concerning for Inter is they aren’t creating a huge volume of chances – their average xG created is 1.43 which is a mid-table figure at this stage. They also only have the sixth best defensive figure; I think it’s fair to say that Inter aren’t firing this season yet. Torino also have some concerning figures; their average xG conceded is exceptionally high at 1.7. That’s the joint-second worst defensive figure.
For the time being, Torino have got away with being so poor at the back but if they keep conceding that volume of chances, eventually they are really going to struggle to pick up points. Especially when you compare that figure to their attacking one at 1.18. It’s not a surprise to see Inter come into the game as the favourites, but the market is very confident on the home win here. Inter Milan are trading 1.36 with Torino 10.5 and the draw is 5.6 at the time of writing. I have to say, although you’d have to expect Inter to win here, the 1.36 feels a little short in my opinion. That doesn’t make any appeal given they’ve certainly been a little lacklustre this season, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.71 here – I know Torino haven’t conceded a huge volume of goals yet this season, but they are conceding a tonne of chances looking at their xG figures. Inter have been a little open at the back recently too, and I feel we can see an open and entertaining game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntTor
REAL MADRID V VILLARREAL
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday night as Real Madrid host Villarreal. It was a dramatic weekend in La Liga last weekend – Barcelona lost away to Osasuna and then we had the Madrid Derby. Real Madrid led that for a long time, but Atletico equalised right at the death so Real were only able to close the gap at the top of the table to three points. Although three points is a good cushion for Barcelona at this stage, they have had a reasonably easy fixture list. Just behind them, sit Villarreal in third. They have quietly been going about their business, and their only four points behind Barcelona heading into this weekend. Villarreal finished last season with the worst defensive figure in La Liga, so the start of this season has been a big step forward – but they are still conceding a high volume of chances! Their average xG conceded is in the bottom five defensive figures – they have been scoring a lot at the start of the season to cover up the chances conceded, and it will be interesting to see how they approach this game. Is there a tougher test to your defence than Real Madrid away?
Football is very data driven these days, and despite the sides sitting beside each other in the table, the market knows the performance levels are miles apart here. Real Madrid come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.27 with Villarreal 12.0 and the draw is 7.4 at the time of writing. Unlike my view on the Inter Milan price above, I do feel that Real Madrid can be included in any acca over the weekend at 1.27. I feel this game is about how many goals Real Madrid score rather than will they win in my opinion. With the problems at the back from Villarreal – which have been there since Unai Emery left to be honest – I like Real Madrid to cover the handicap here. They’re trading 1.7 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and that looks cracking value to me. A little worry is how well Villarreal have been performing in front of goal this season – they are scoring way above their xG – so I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes but the 1.7 looks good value on a comfortable Real win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Villarreal at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaVll
