SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v JUVENTUS, BAYERN MUNICH v DORTMUND and BARCELONA v LAS PALMAS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V JUVENTUS
5pm We have a wonderful Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have action from Serie A, the Bundesliga and La Liga to enjoy with three top class fixtures. We kick off the day in Serie A with Lazio hosting Juventus, unfortunately for Juventus the wheels have come off their season and they dropped down to third before the International break. Title race? After one win from their last eight games they are now a whopping 17 points behind Inter Milan. Of course, anyone who was a fan of xG figures would have expected Inter to pull away in the title race but it’s happened very quickly and dramatically. In fairness the performance levels between Inter and Juventus this season were massive – you have to give Juventus massive credit for grinding out as many results as they have but their average xG created is only 1.47 which is only the sixth best attacking figure. Their average xG conceded is the fourth best, and when couple those stats together you get a top four side rather than a side that can win the title. It will be interesting to see how they get on here against a very average Lazio side who have had a poor season.
Lazio massively over-performed last season to finish in second. Again, you have to give them credit for grinding out results when everyone else was dropping points behind Napoli but since then they have been very poor. They’ve sold their best players and they’ve gone massively backwards. They’ve turned into a mid-table side, and their performance figures are even worse. Their average xG created is as low as 1.11 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A. Maurizio Sarri stepped down after the Udinese loss, and Lazio did win their next game however that was against Frosinone who sit in the relegation zone. We have an open market, and Juventus come into the game as the favourites at 2.62 with Lazio 3.2 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. This game screams a low scoring affair; Lazio have been very poor going forward and Juventus have also struggled to create decent chances too. The 0-0 Correct Score is tempting at around 8.5 but Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.57.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazJuv
BAYERN MUNICH V DORTMUND
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for Der Klassiker as Bayern Munich host Dortmund. It isn’t quite the Clasico that it usually is this season however with Bayer Leverkusen running away with the Bundesliga title. Dortmund are only fighting for a top four spot too, so we’re far from a title decider like we’ve had over the last few seasons. Bayern have been having a very tough season, they are ten points behind Bayer Leverkusen and we already know that Thomas Tuchel is leaving at the end of the season. I have to say I wasn’t sure with that decision – it might have been better to just pull the plug now with a caretaker until the end of the season. It’s obvious that something isn’t right with the club, but they are still in the Champions League where they have Arsenal in the Quarter-Finals. Dortmund are also in the Champions League Quarter-Finals and they have Atletico Madrid; they have their hands full in the top four Bundesliga battle too though. They were six points behind RB Leipzig at the winter break but they now have a one point advantage with a little gap to Stuttgart who have been playing better football compared to Leipzig and Dortmund anyway.
Bayern Munich come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.47 with Dortmund 6.6 and the draw is 5.9 at the time of writing. Although Bayern have had a lot of disappointing moments this season, it is still hard to fault them. They are scoring three goals per game, their average xG created is still the highest in the Bundesliga – indeed, 2.27 is one of the highest figures from Europe’s elite leagues. The reality is that Bayer Leverkusen have been better at the back, and they have equally been excellent. Bayern just crumbled under pressure at the wrong time. Dortmund are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home, and that’s always a big red flag when you visit Bayern! We always see goals in this fixture, and the market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.27 – there isn’t much value on offer there to be honest and with Dortmund’s away form this season it’s hard to see past the Bayern win. At 1.47, it offers the best position in what should be an entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayDrm
BARCELONA V LAS PALMAS
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the action on Saturday from Europe as Barcelona host Las Palmas. Barcelona moved into second before the International break with a win over Atletico Madrid but they are still eight points behind Real Madrid. That result probably had a bigger impact on the top four race for Atletico Madrid rather than the title race as Real look very comfortable there. Girona’s season has seemingly hit the wall in recent weeks and we’re back to having our usual top two in the table! This is a game that Barcelona will be fully expected to win – Las Palmas came up from the Segunda last season and while there is a massive gulf in class between the sides, Las Palmas will be absolutely delighted to be sitting in mid-table and nowhere near the relegation battle. Barcelona come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.3, and if you fancy a shock Las Palmas are 11.0 with the draw 6.6 at the time of writing. I know Barcelona have been sloppy at the back at times this season, but I feel this is a case of how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win.
Although Las Palmas will be happy with their position in the table, there are a lot of red flags in their under-lining numbers. Their average xG created is only 0.95 which gives them the third worst attacking figure in La Liga – they are one of only three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0. Obviously there’s quite a few games left this season plus a summer transfer window, but at the moment you’d have to say that they would be one of the favourites for relegation in their second season if things don’t change. They are sitting in mid-table because they have been solid at the back, and that will be put to the test here – Barcelona have an average xG created of 1.89, only Real Madrid have been better going forward. Las Palmas have also conceded a lot more chances away from home compared to in front of their own fans, and it’s really hard to see anything bar a comfortable Barcelona win here. Barcelona are trading 1.79 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and that looks a very nice position – Las Palmas don’t offer much going forward and Barcelona are creating very close to two goals per game on average too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Las Palmas at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarLas
