SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the top matches in Europe including the Copa del Rey final between ATHLETIC BILBAO V MALLORCA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V LAZIO
5pm We have a cracking Saturday from around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have two fascinating fixtures from Serie A and the Bundesliga, then the highlight of Saturday as we finish the day with the Copa del Rey Final. We start the action in Serie A as Roma host Lazio – after looking like they could mount a top four challenge Roma have dropped a few points in recent weeks. This is definitely a game that they need to win, and to be honest Lazio are there for the taking – they have been very poor this season. Lazio were always likely to drop off from last season, they massively over-achieved to finish in second, but the drop off has been quite dramatic. They’ve had a change in management, and put two wins together now which has saw them jump up the table, but their average xG created is only 1.13 which is obviously a very poor figure. That’s the joint-fifth worst attacking figure in Serie A this season. They have been solid at the back however, and that’s why they are in the top half of the table. Roma will have to work hard to break them down, but they have been creating a lot more since the sacking of Jose Mourinho.
As you would expect with home advantage, Roma come into the game as the favourites at 2.28 with Lazio 3.85 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Roma have only been beaten once since Jose Mourinho got sacked, and that was against Inter Milan who are running away with the title. They did have a disappointing 0-0 with Lecce last weekend though; they didn’t perform well either and conceded an xG of close to 2.0. Lazio have been so limited going forward this season it’s hard to see them winning here, but you wouldn’t be surprised to see them grind out a draw. Obviously the manager has gone now too, and they do come into this game off the back of a win over Juventus – the wheels have definitely fallen off Juventus recently! Roma’s games had a lot of goals just after the Mourinho sacking, but their last two xG figures have been pretty low. We know Lazio are going to be very negative here, and Under 2.5 goals looks over-priced at 1.73. This could be a very cagey game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomLzi
DORTMUND V STUTTGART
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for a massive game as Dortmund host Stuttgart. These two sit in third and fourth and while Dortmund might be thinking if they win here they could push for third, their main worry has to be RB Leipzig behind them in the race for a Champions League spot. After being six points behind RB Leipzig at the winter break, Dortmund head into this weekend with a three points advantage now after RB Leipzig dropped points again. This should be a high quality game – both sides sit in the top five attacking figures wise. You have to say Stuttgart have been the most improved side in Europe this season – they have gone from finishing in the relegation playoff spot to sitting in the top three with an average xG created of 1.77. They have been exceptional at the back too; their average xG conceded is only 1.17 which is the third best defensive figure in the Bundesliga only behind Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. Getting from the relegation playoff spot to here hasn’t just been luck; Stuttgart have been playing some very impressive football this season. It will be interesting to see how Dortmund perform here.
Dortmund have had a lot of issues away from home; they have been all over the place at times at the back away. Their average xG conceded away from home this season is high at 1.59 and they are creating less than that. In general they have been playing a very open game, and that could easily be their downfall here against such a solid side. Dortmund come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Stuttgart 3.05 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Stuttgart have had six losses in the Bundesliga this season, and five of those have come away from home. They beat Dortmund 2-1 earlier in the season with home advantage, and in general they have played well away – obviously they have been excellent at home but I still feel they can get a result here. The 2.26 looks too short on Dortmund in my opinion, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the home lay. I strongly feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Stuttgart at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorStu
ATHLETIC BILBAO V MALLORCA
9pm We move over to Spain to finish a brilliant Saturday with the Copa del Rey Final between Athletic Bilbao and Mallorca. You don’t need me to tell you that this is an absolutely huge game for both sides; winning a trophy isn’t something that comes often for these sides! Athletic Bilbao have been having a superb season, and they are in a battle for fourth with Atletico Madrid in La Liga at the moment. They suffered a setback in that race last weekend with a loss away to Real Madrid, but obviously you don’t get much tougher fixtures than that. As things stand, Atletico Madrid have a two point advantage – it’s hard not to be happy for Athletic Bilbao considering they have finished just one spot off the European places for the last two seasons. They will very likely come up short in the top four race, but even a Europa League spot would be massive for them. For Mallorca, this is their biggest game for over 20 years. They last won the Copa del Rey in 2002/03 but obviously they have been through a lot since then – they have been up and down between La Liga and the Segunda a few times. They are only six points off the relegation zone this season too.
Athletic Bilbao come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.72 with Mallorca 6.2 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. There’s quite a big difference between the sides when you look at their performance levels this season. Mallorca only have an average xG created of 1.09 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in La Liga. They beat Girona at home and then Real Sociedad on penalties but they have had a very good draw to get here. Athletic Bilbao have had to come through Barcelona and Atletico Madrid! Mallorca have had success because they have been reasonably solid at the back, and so have Bilbao this season – Bilbao have an average xG conceded of just 1.16 and that’s the third best defensive figure in La Liga. I do fancy Bilbao at 1.72 here, however I can see a very cagey game. Bilbao don’t tend to open things up early either, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 at half-time before things start to happen in the second half. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.64 and that looks a very nice position in what should be a very tense affair.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CopaF
