SATURDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews AC MILAN v SASSUOLO and JUVENTUS v ROMA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN v SASSUOLO
5pm The Serie A action continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two cracking fixtures on Saturday! All eyes will no doubt be on the massive clash between Juventus and Roma as the headline fixture later, but we kick off the action with AC Milan hosting Sassuolo. This is a game AC Milan will be fully expected to win – Sassuolo had their Christmas just three points off the relegation zone. However, AC Milan haven’t been playing superb football this season – indeed, there’s been a lot of over-performing and under-performing at the top of Serie A this season! As I highlighted in my preview of Friday’s games, Napoli have the best attacking figure in Serie A this season but they are already miles off the pace. AC Milan and Juventus have been playing quite average football at times, but you have to give both of them massive credit for grinding out results. AC Milan are only marginally creating more chances than they are conceding. Their average xG created is 1.44 with their average conceded at 1.38, only a difference of +0.06. Sassuolo have actually been creating marginally more than AC Milan – their average xG created is 1.49, but they have been conceding more chances.
Sassuolo’s average xG conceded is 1.60 which is the fourth worst record at the back in Serie A. It’s no surprise to see AC Milan as the odds on favourites – the home win is trading 1.5 with Sassuolo 7.2 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. AC Milan have pretty much kept the same performance level at home and away this season; it’s not like they are creating much more at home or conceding a lot away like we see with some teams. Sassuolo’s average xG conceded away from home of 1.74 is a big red flag though – they have clearly struggled away from home. It’s hard to be confident in AC Milan at 1.5 however, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. We usually see plenty of action between these two; 67% of the meetings between the sides have finished with Over 2.5 goals. That’s trading seven ticks bigger than the AC Milan win and I feel it’s a much better bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilSas
JUVENTUS v ROMA
7.45pm Next we have the highlight of the weekend in Europe as Juventus host Roma! This should be a cracker, and there always tends to be some form of drama – especially when Jose Mourinho is involved anyway! Roma went into Christmas with a 2-0 win over Napoli, afterwards Mourinho was standing on the pitch winking at the TV camera – classic Mourinho! Roma started this matchday only three points off the top four, and you’d have to say that they are bang in the mix. They have been superb at the back this season – their average xG conceded of 1.06 is the second best defensive record in Serie A this season; only bettered by Inter Milan. They are massively over-performing in front of goal however; their average xG created is 1.32 which is mid-table form however their actual goals scored works out at an average of 1.76. That’s quite a big difference, and eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles; then they will run into trouble. Juventus have been grinding out a lot of results this season; their performance level isn’t overly impressive. Their average xG created is just 1.39 and their average conceded is 1.21. These two sides actually sit beside each other on the xG performance table.
Juventus come into the game as the favourites with home advantage, but they aren’t trading odds on. The home win is 2.16 with Roma 4.3 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. Home advantage seems key for Juventus here. Away from home they have been conceding more chances than they are creating, while at home they have been rock solid. Their average xG conceded is just 1.06. Given how solid Juventus have been at home, and how good Roma have been at the back all season I feel this game screams Under 2.5 goals. That is trading 1.51 so the market is expecting a very quiet game here; the under-lining numbers really support it however, and I feel it should be trading shorter. Four of the last five meetings between the sides have finished with Under 2.5 goals, and the 1.51 is worth backing here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvRma
