SATURDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v VERONA and SASSUOLO v FIORENTINA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V VERONA
11.30am All the focus is on Serie A this Saturday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Cup action in Spain and France, and the Bundesliga still on their winter break. We have two interesting fixtures to look at with very different markets. We start the day early with league leaders Inter Milan hosting Verona. Inter will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game trading as short as 1.2 at the time of writing. That’s the shortest price of any side in Serie A this weekend, but if you fancy a shock Verona are trading 19.0 and the draw is 8.6 at the time of writing. Inter had to settle for a draw away to Genoa in their last game over 2023 but they still have a two point lead over Juventus. The top two are running away from the others, and the title isn’t going anywhere else bar the top two. Inter are in the much better position in terms of performance levels. They have an average xG created of 1.79 which is the second best attacking figure in Serie A this season, quite a distance ahead of the Juventus average xG of just 1.39 too. Inter have also been superb at the back; their average xG conceded is just 1.07 which is the best defensive figure in Italy.
With Inter trading as short as 1.2 in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. It’s almost impossible to see past a comfortable home win here – Verona are sitting in 17th and are level on points with Cagliari who sit in the relegation zone. They have been poor in front of goal, their average xG created is only 1.1 which is the fourth worst attacking figure. They haven’t even managed to take those chances created either, scoring less than one goal per game on average. Verona have been trying to keep things as tight as possible, and you’d have to expect them to play a very cagey game here. It’s hard to know how many goals Inter will score, and the bet I really like is Both Teams Not To Score at 1.65. Essentially an Inter clean sheet bet which I believe they can keep on their way to winning. I wouldn’t be surprised if Inter had to work hard to win here, but with Verona fully focused on being solid at the back I don’t see them creating many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntVrn
SASSUOLO V FIORENTINA
7.45pm We finish Saturday in Serie A with Sassuolo hosting Fiorentina. This is a massive game for both sides as they begin their 2024. Sassuolo start the weekend just two points outside the relegation zone while Fiorentina are currently sitting in the top four. Fiorentina will obviously be delighted with their position, but they also know that having Atalanta, Roma and Napoli just behind them is going to be a big challenge! They have a four point or more cushion on those three which is obviously a very nice position; the challenge now is finishing off the season well. Everything is going well for Fiorentina this season though, their average xG created of 1.52 is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A. They have been solid at the back too, their average xG conceded is just 1.14 which is the third best defensive figure. Put them two figures together and you have a very solid side. As I said above, there’s a big gap between the top two and the rest this season, but in terms of under-lining numbers you’d have to be delighted with Fiorentina this season. Sassuolo have been conceding a lot of chances this season, their average xG conceded is actually the third highest figure in the league but they have also been creating a lot.
That’s why Fiorentina aren’t trading odds on here. They are clear favourites though, the away win is trading 2.28 with Sassuolo 3.4 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Sassuolo games have been full of action this season – they’ve conceded the second highest amount of goals and scored at a level usually seen when fighting for the European spots. Only one of their last eight games has finished with Under 2.5 goals. It’s no surprise to see Both Teams To Score trading odds on along with Over 2.5 goals, and Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.78. Fiorentina have been conceding more chances away from home compared to at home, and we know Sassuolo love to play an open game. Their figures show they don’t know how to play a cagey game, and I’d have Overs trading shorter. The 1.78 looks a nice position to finish the day!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SslFio
