SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v NAPOLI and VERONA v UDINESE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V NAPOLI
5pm Serie A remains the focus from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this weekend! It’s a Copa del Rey weekend in Spain, and the Bundesliga hasn’t come back from its Christmas break yet. The big sides from Italy are in Saudi Arabia for the Italian Super Cup this weekend too, but we still have some huge games this weekend at the top and the bottom of the table. We kick off the action with the highlight fixture of the weekend in my opinion as Fiorentina host Napoli – this should be a cracker. Napoli have been having an excellent season and come into this weekend level on points with Atalanta at the top of the table. They have been over-performing in front of goal of course, but given they finished mid-table last season with the highest average xG created, you can forgive them scoring from a few awkward angles this season. Fiorentina will also be very pleased with their season so far – they are bang in the mix for the European spots but they come into this game in a mini-crisis. Three games without a win has put them on the back foot, and while they were always likely to come up short in the top four battle, it is hard to go through these periods when they come.
As you would expect, we have an open betting heat. Napoli are the favourites at 2.54 with Fiorentina 3.25 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. There really isn’t much between the sides on paper, but it’s hard to argue with Napoli being the favourites. They both have the same attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.4. That’s a mid-table figure in Serie A so both sides have been over-performing in front of goal, especially Fiorentina. Napoli have been better at the back however; their average xG conceded of 1.04 is the third best defensive figure in Serie A – Fiorentina have a respectable figure at 1.23 but that’s where the major difference is. Both sides have actually been rock solid at the back – they’ve both conceded less than one goal per game on average. This game screams a very tight and close affair without many chances – I know both sides are over-performing up front, but their hardly banging the door down with chances created. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.78 and that looks the standout bet for me in what should be a cagey game. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 here to be honest, but I’m happy with a confident bet on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioNpi
VERONA V UDINESE
7.45pm We finish Saturday in Serie A with a game that will have an impact on the relegation battle as Verona host Udinese. After Christmas we had some huge results in the relegation battle – wins for Genoa, Parma, Como and Verona moved them a little away from the bottom three. What was looking like an exceptionally open relegation battle now looks like it might become a bottom four, but obviously things can change quickly! The win for Verona away to Bologna was massive for them – there’s a lot of red flags in their performance figures. This game is interesting because Udinese are hardly setting the world alight on their performance figures either. It’s not a surprise to see an open betting heat here given it’s hard to have faith in either side to be honest. Udinese have grinded out a lot of results this season, and they deserve to be favourites – they are trading 2.6 with Verona 3.3 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. Verona have the second worst attacking figure in Serie A this season, but they have been over-performing in front of goal – they have needed to over-perform because they have been leaking goals for fun.
Verona have conceded the most goals in Serie A this season, which is never a good stat. I know they are four points away from the relegation zone coming into this weekend, but you wouldn’t be surprised to see them come under immense pressure later in the season. Both sides have been poor at the back – Verona have the third worst defensive figure and Udinese are in the bottom five too. I know you can say that both sides lack quality up front, but I was still surprised to see Under 2.5 goals odds on. I would have had Overs odds on to be honest, and that looks a very nice bet at 2.15. Both Teams To Score is trading odds on at 1.82, and that also looks a nice option given how sloppy both sides have been at the back. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, however I feel there’s more value in the Overs option at 2.15. This game should be full of mistakes at the back.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VerUdn
