SERIE A: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V FIORENTINA
5pm It’s a strange finish to the Serie A season as Atalanta host Fiorentina on Sunday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. This fixture was postponed and now they end up playing it a week after everyone else has finished the season due to European commitments. It’s always hard to know the motivation levels on the final day of the season, let alone a week after everyone else has finished! Both sides were involved in European Finals with Atalanta winning the Europa League and Fiorentina losing to Europa Conference League Final. That would have been hard to take, and it’s easy to see why Atalanta are the odds on favourites here with home advantage.
Atalanta are trading 1.5 with Fiorentina 7.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. It’s fair to say that Fiorentina might not want to be here; they can’t improve their position in the table and they come into off losing a Final in extra-time. Another disappointment for Fiorentina is that they finished in eighth, one spot outside the European spots in Serie A! That was a very disappointing return given they have played quality football this season – their average xG created is 1.57 which is the fifth best attacking figure in Serie A. They have been rock solid at the back too; their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the joint-second best defensive figure in the league.
That’s a better figure than Atalanta have at 1.25, but Atalanta have been better going forward. Their average xG created is 1.67, which is the third best attacking figure in Serie A. Home advantage will be a huge factor here; not only will Atalanta want a performance in front of their own fans – Fiorentina have been quite average away from home. They sit in 10th place in the away form table, while Atalanta are 2nd in the home form table. Only Inter Milan have recorded more points at home this season than Atalanta. A win here could also push Atalanta into third, not that it matters after the top five in Serie A now go into the Champions League – plus I think Roma go in too after Atalanta won the Europa League!
These two sides are generally very solid at the back, but with this being the last game of the season I can see a more open game than usual. That’s generally the popular view on the final day of the season! Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.57 and I have to say I felt that would be trading shorter. The 1.5 on Atalanta does make plenty of appeal, but I feel Over 2.5 goals offers slight more value at seven ticks bigger. I’m happy with a confident three point bet to finish the Serie A season!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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