SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V NAPOLI
2pm We have a cracker from Europe on Sunday as Atalanta and Napoli clash in Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange! This is a fascinating clash – Atalanta have been under-performing this season but they have finally started to take their chances, and it’ll be interesting to see can they deal with Napoli. It’s no surprise that we have a fairly open betting heat – Atalanta come into the game as the favourites with home advantage at 2.58 with Napoli 3.15 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. This does scream a very evenly matched game on paper!
Atalanta have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.60 – they have struggled to convert their chances all season though which is why they are outside of the European spots at the moment. Recent signs are promising however; they are unbeaten in eight, winning six of those games. Indeed, their only loss in their last eleven Serie A games was 1-0 against Inter Milan – no shame in that with Inter being so strong this season. Napoli have an average xG created of 1.50 is the sixth best attacking figure in Serie A – decent enough, but a far cry from when they were top of the table on attacking figures and competing for the title – their level has definitely dropped this season.
They are still very strong at the back though, as you would expect under Conte. Their average xG conceded of 1.14 is the fifth best defensive figure in Serie A. In fact, they’ve been keeping the ball out of the net quite well this season, which explains why they stayed in the title race for so long when they were clearly struggling to create the same volume of chances as Inter Milan. Atalanta have been conceding more chances – but they have been getting away with things at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.35 but they are conceding less than a goal a game. They’ve actually conceded less goals than Napoli this season!
It’s easy to see why we have an open betting heat here – there are plenty of positives for both sides but at the same time you can pick holes in them too. I do agree with Atalanta being favourites – they have been creating chances all season and on their current run, it finally feels like they are converting them. This game screams a very close and even game on paper though, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a small position on the draw at 3.25. Another option has to be Under 2.5 goals – these two sides have generally produce tight, competitive affairs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a cagey game here – that’s trading 1.81 which looks a shade of value considering both sides have been very tight at the back.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAArNa
