BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA SUNDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews BARCELONA v OSASUNA, BAYER LEVERKUSEN v HERTHA BERLIN, MAINZ v HOFFENHEIM and REAL SOCIEDAD v VILLARREAL on Sunday all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
BARCELONA V OSASUNA
1pm Another cracking Sunday in Europe! We start earlier than usual with Barcelona hosting Osasuna as they find themselves in the unusual position of being in the bottom half of La Liga. This isn’t just first week variance either, all teams have played eight games and while some have played ten – even an extra six points at the start of the weekend would have only put Barcelona in fourth and six points behind the league leaders. We all know their problems with Messi during the summer and surely that’s having an effect on the dressing room. It’s going to be a tough season for them, and you know what – it’s actually fascinating to see what happens. It’s a Barcelona we’re not used to seeing.
Despite all their issues on and off the field, the home side should get the job done here against a poor Osasuna side. I’m not going to lump on Barcelona at 1.29, but they would be a banker for any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend. For my bet, I’m going to take a chance with under 3.5 goals at 1.7. Osasuna generally keep things tight, and while Barcelona should win they aren’t creating a huge amount of chances. We could easily see a boring 1-0 or 2-0 win without much drama, and I feel unders offers good value at 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBarOsa
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V HERTHA BERLIN
2.30pm We move to the Bundesliga for our next bet. I like over 2.5 goals here at 1.64 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. I have been keeping a close eye on Leverkusen this season as I had them earmarked as a side to watch given they sold so much attacking talent during the transfer window. I felt there was value on offer laying them at the start of the season, but now after a few games they have settled back into their scoring habits and look to have recovered from selling two attacking stars.
Leverkusen’s most recent games have been packed with goals, and so has Hertha Berlin’s. I’m very surprised to see overs as big as 1.64 and felt we should have a price just under 1.5. Hertha Berlin give up a lot of chances and with Leverkusen finding their scoring boots in recent weeks I feel we’ll see a lot of goals here. Leverkusen play a very open game and are always good to watch from a neutral point of view – while Hertha are creating enough chances to score themselves. I wouldn’t put anyone off over 3.5 or 4.5 goals either, and we might even see something like a 5-2 score line Hertha had against Dortmund. Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet of the day however at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLevHer
MAINZ V HOFFENHEIM
5pm We should see more goals in the second Bundesliga game this afternoon as Mainz host Hoffenheim. Except this time I feel the odds are correct, with over 2.5 goals trading very close to 1.5. I quite like Hoffenheim to win here at 2.12 – they have let me down a few times already this season, so perhaps that should be factored into the staking! Mainz have been playing poor football however, and while Hoffenheim are only a few points ahead of them you only have to look at their xG figures to see that they are playing good football.
Hoffenheim’s problem is at the back rather than going forward as they are leaking too many goals. In their last six games they have finished with xG’s of 2.13, 1.55, 3.10, 4.0, 1.57 and 2.84. That’s very impressive – but they’ve only won three times. If they can improve at the back they will shoot up the table. Mainz have played well in their last two but they have come against Freiburg and Schalke – two sides either below them or very close to them. Hoffenheim look cracking value at 2.16 if you look at the underlining numbers, and this is an excellent chance for them to claim three points.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Hoffenheim to beat Mainz at 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMaiHof
REAL SOCIEDAD V VILLARREAL
8pm We started the day in La Liga and we’ll finish it there too. We have a cracker to finish with Real Sociedad hosting Villarreal. Real Sociedad have been excellent this season and started the weekend in top spot. They started three points ahead of Atletico Madrid, but Atletico have two games in hand. With Real Madrid and Barcelona really struggling this season, perhaps these sides can dream. Atletico Madrid will really fancy their chances, but Real Sociedad are playing some excellent football and Unai Emery has Villarreal playing great football too, they were unlucky not to beat Real Madrid last weekend. This should be a very high quality affair.
It’s fair to say both sides had disappointing draws on Thursday night in the Europa League, both came away from home in tricky places to play but really and truly should have won. Both sides would have been odds on, but not heavy favourites. While Sociedad have been excellent this season, it’s fair to say the fixture list has been kind to them. They played Real Madrid early and drew 0-0 and since then they have had a very “winnable” fixture list. This is their first massive test I feel, and they look a little short for me at 2.2. Villarreal have really impressed me under Emery – they are rock solid at the back and it’ll be interesting to see can Sociedad have success against them. For me though it’s a Sociedad lay at 2.2 as I fully expect Villarreal to make those odds look too short.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (Liability) Real Sociedad to beat Villarreal at 2.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSocVil
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