SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V AUGSBURG
2.30pm We have a cracking Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have an intriguing day from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A! It’s great to have the Bundesliga back this weekend after a long winter break, and we start the day there with Dortmund hosting Augsburg. Dortmund are clearly struggling with life after Haaland, in fairness how can you replace that volume of goals, but Dortmund have a lot of work to do. They went into the World Cup sitting in sixth place, and whatever about not challenging for the title anymore, dropping out of the Champions League places would be a disaster. You could say that got “lucky” with their Champions League Group this season because they had Sevilla in it along with Manchester City, and Sevilla are having a shocking season. Their under-lining numbers haven’t been bad in the Bundesliga, and they would actually sit up in third position if the results went with their xG figures. Alas, that’s not the way it works and Dortmund haven’t taken their chances enough this season. One decent weekend could easily see them sitting in third place though, and at home against Augsburg you’d have to call this a must win game.
The market is confident on a Dortmund win here – they are trading as short as 1.33 at the time of writing. Augsburg are a pretty average side, and it’s very hard to see past a Dortmund win here. That being said, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Dortmund at 1.33. Augsburg have actually got double the amount of points away from home compared to at home this season – they did go into the World Cup without a win in seven Bundesliga games though, so I wouldn’t be laying Dortmund either! I feel the best option is to stay away from the match odds market here and focus on the goals market. The market is expecting goals too, with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.42. Augsburg have been very poor at the back this season, and although Dortmund have struggled a little to take their chances, they will get a lot of them here. I’m going to keep stakes low here, but I do like an easy Dortmund win at decent odds. I want a value price here, and the 3.05 on Dortmund -2.5 goals is worth a small investment. Smaller stakes at bigger odds is a lot more appealing than lumping on 1.33!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Dortmund -2.5 goals to beat Augsburg at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorAug
BARCELONA V GETAFE
5pm Next we move to La Liga as Barcelona host Getafe. It’s been a good return to action for Barcelona despite dropping points in their first game back after the World Cup. Real Madrid lost their last game and with Barcelona beating Atletico Madrid 1-0, they moved three points clear at the top of La Liga! It’s funny how the luck swings around in football, Barcelona were very unlucky to only draw 1-1 with Getafe as they finished the game with an xG of 2.95 but then they were lucky to beat Atletico, conceding an xG of close to double what they created in front of goal! Getafe are under pressure in the relegation battle which involves a lot of clubs this season, they start the weekend sitting just two points away from the bottom three. They won’t be hitting the panic button soon as there’s so many clubs in the mix, indeed we had four clubs all within two points of the bottom three at the start of the weekend! Getafe fans will surely view Barcelona away as a complete bonus, and from a Getafe point of view they will probably aim for a 0-0 draw here. A point away to Barcelona would be a fantastic result.
The market doesn’t see that happening though! Barcelona are trading as short as 1.2 at the time of writing, and it’s very hard to see past a home win here. Despite dropping a few points, including losing El Clasico before the World Cup, Barcelona have been superb this season. They are right back to their brilliant best – their average xG created this season in La Liga is a whopping 2.7. That’s one of the highest figures around Europe, and they have been solid at the back too conceding an average xG of just under one. Getafe have their work cut out here, and there’s no doubt they will try to make this game as boring as possible. It’s highly likely they’ll put XI men behind the ball, and given their average xG created is less than one this season I can’t see them troubling Barcelona at the back. Rather than trying to predict how many goals Barcelona can score, I feel they will keep a clean sheet here – Both Teams Not To Score is 1.5 and that looks a better bet than anything in the goal or handicap markets.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarGet
JUVENTUS V ATALANTA
7.45pm We move to Serie A next as Juventus host Atalanta. This looks the highlight fixture of the day in Europe, and we should have an intriguing game. We certainly had the headline of the weekend in the footballing world with Juventus getting deducted 15 points in Serie A after an investigation into their transfer dealings!. Juventus are looking to bounce back after suffering a big loss to Napoli last weekend – they were hammered 5-1, and Napoli really stamped their authority on the title race with that result! It was actually a great weekend for Napoli, not only did they hammer Juventus but AC Milan dropped points too. Atalanta had their own headline score line as they hammered Salernitana 8-2! Goals were going in from all angles, and this is probably a good time to meet Juventus away – confidence probably couldn’t be higher after scoring eight goals in one game! This would have been a huge game for both sides with so much at stake in the race for the European spots. Juventus would have started the weekend sitting in third while Atalanta are sixth, but after the 15 points penalty Juventus dropped down to tenth. It’s fair to say that Juventus haven’t been at their best this season, but credit to them that they have been grinding out results, but that decision has blown up their season really. It’s going to be very hard for them to bounce back from that, and now the pressure is on to try and get European football next season.
There’s been nothing flashy about Juventus this season. All their wins have been hard fought, and probably the Napoli result is a reflection of where they are at the moment. They just aren’t good enough to challenge for the title at the moment, but top four is a fair reflection of their level – before the 15 point penalty. You can see that when you look at their under-lining numbers because they are only creating an average xG of 1.4 per game in Serie A this season. They have been solid at the back so that’s been getting the job done, but usually you like to see the figure closer to 2.0 for a side sitting in the top four in a big league. Atalanta are actually creating more chances in front of goal this season because their average xG created is 1.7, and they have the same figure at the back as Juventus. While I expected to see Juventus trading as favourites, I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as short as 2.26. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest with Atalanta playing good football this season. As I said, Juventus just haven’t fired in front of goal this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to fire again here. The 2.26 jumps off the page as a good value lay in what should be a very close game. If Juventus fail to win here, it will cap a disaster week for them.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Atalanta at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvAta
ATHLETIC BILBAO V REAL MADRID
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a cracking Sunday as Athletic Bilbao host Real Madrid. Villarreal and Real Madrid played quickly twice, once in La Liga and the other time in the Copa del Rey – after losing to Villarreal and going three points behind Barcelona in La Liga, Real Madrid got back to winning ways on Thursday against them in the Copa del Rey! After winning El Clasico, Real Madrid will be gutted to be three points between themselves and Barcelona now! Despite being away from home, Real will view this as a good chance of getting three points because Athletic Bilbao have yet to win in La Liga since they resumed their season after the World Cup. They could call themselves a little unlucky against Osasuna, but they were outplayed last weekend by Real Sociedad and it was a very boring 0-0 against Real Betis. Real Madrid have a good record against Bilbao too – they have won the last five meetings, and they have won on their last three visits in La Liga here. We landed a nice lay on Real Madrid looking at their record against Villarreal, but I really wouldn’t fancy laying them here at 2.52.
I was actually surprised to see them trading so high when I clicked into the market, and it’s going to be hard to find a better bet in this game in my opinion! Bilbao are having a very good season, but they haven’t played well since returning from the World Cup. I noted above that they could call themselves unlucky here against Osasuna, but they still didn’t really create a lot. Their xG figure was 1.15 and the only conceded 0.37. I know Real Madrid have dropped a few points either side of the World Cup, but they remain excellent going forward, their average xG is 2.4 this season which is obviously impressive. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here, because Real have been a little unreliable – especially at the back – but the 2.52 is too big to turn down here. I feel this is a good time to take on Bilbao, and Real can take all three points here to finish the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilRma
