EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Sunday’s Final between SPAIN v ENGLAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPAIN v ENGLAND
8pm After a month of drama and debate, the Euro 2024 Final arrives on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Spain clash with England on Sunday night. Much has been made about the difference in quality between the top and the bottom half of the draw, but this is definitely a blockbuster Final. Spain have been playing the best football of the tournament and have come through an extremely difficult side of the draw beating Germany and France in the Knockout stages along the way while England have stumbled their way through the tournament but have been gifted an easy draw. Although England have been handed a very easy path here, they did come into Euro 2024 as the favourites given the quality in their squad. It’s set up to be a wonderful Final with plenty of talking points.
There will be a lot made about the different paths here. England did get a very easy side of the draw, but in fairness to them they topped their Group despite playing poorly. They were always forecast to be on this side of the draw, and the general feeling was that they were due to have France on their side to meet at the Semi-Final stage. It’s not England’s fault they failed to top their Group. England have some world class players in their squad but they have failed to put everything together; there would be no better time to peak than the Final! Their Semi-Final performance against the Netherlands was much improved; they were pretty impressive in the first half with Phil Foden finally showing the form that made him the player of the year in the Premier League.
While England started the tournament as favourites, Spain come into the Final as the favourites. Spain are trading 2.57 with England 3.65 and the draw is 2.95 at the time of writing. It’s obvious to see why the odds have shifted in terms of who is favourites – Spain started Euro 2024 trading 9.7 with England 4.3. We had France, Germany and Portugal all lower than Spain in the Outright market at the start, but this quickly changed with them being the only side to win their three Group games and then they were also handed a very easy Last 16 fixture against Georgia. Of course, England came incredibly close to exiting the tournament at this stage as they were 1-0 down against Slovakia with 94th minutes gone. Step forward Jude Bellingham!
England definitely took a step in the right direction with their win over Netherlands. Scoring in the final moments is always fantastic for morale, but it was good to see them actually finish with a higher xG created than the Netherlands. Their average xG created is still very low at 1.29 but they have been very solid at the back; their average xG conceded is only 1.05 which is an impressive figure. Obviously this has come at a cost of creating chances going forward with the way Gareth Southgate sets them up. A lot of focus has been on the left back position which has been an issue for the whole England. The reality is England have a system where Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden – three of the best players in the world – haven’t been firing like they should be, or like they do at club level.
Spain have obviously created more. Their average xG created is 1.9; anything close to a figure of 2.0 is very good. Their average xG conceded is a little over England’s at 1.14 but those figures are very close. Only Croatia created a lot against Spain in their first game of the tournament, but they failed to take their chances and Spain won 3-0. Spain have conceded in their three Knockout games, which is something England should definitely be looking at. They seem much better when they have their backs to the wall and have to go after the game. You get the feeling that Southgate sets them up in such a cagey fashion that they don’t play their best.
Under 2.5 goals looks a little short at 1.59 in my opinion given Spain have leaked a few goals. That being said, you wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-1 here; whoever takes the lead will likely sit back, and then if there is an equaliser the game might quiet down a little. I do feel the draw is a big runner here; however from a value point of view it’s hard to get away from Spain at 2.58. They have been much better than England right throughout the tournament and they have been consistent too. The way they bounced back from 1-0 down against France was very impressive, and while England might play better if they go behind, it will likely take a Spain goal to get them out of their shell. I do expect a very close and cagey game, so I’m not going to go mad with the staking but the 2.58 on Spain is too big to ignore.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Spain to beat England at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaEng
