SUNDAY PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Sunday’s matches between KOLN v STUTTGART, BARCELONA v REAL VALLADOLID, FIORENTINA v NAPOLI and ESPANYOL v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V STUTTGART
2.30pm What a cracking Sunday we have in store around Europe! We have action from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with some fascinating markets. We have started the season in great form, so hopefully we can keep that winning run going for as long as possible! We start the day in Germany as Koln host Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart fans will remember this fixture fondly, except they had home advantage, on the final day they beat Koln to get out of relegation trouble in the most dramatic fashion. They scored the winner in the 92nd minute and the stadium went mental. That’s what football is all about though – give me that feeling any day over staying in mid-table every season. After all that drama though, I’m sure Stuttgart will be hoping for a reasonably drama free season relegation battle wise! They managed to finish up in 9th in 2020/21 before having a terrible season last time. They were pretty average in all departments last season, but it was probably only getting 11 points away from home that had them in the position they were in. They weren’t impressive at home either by any means though. It will be interesting to see how they deal with a solid Koln side here.
Looking at the Stuttgart xG figures from their opening three games, it’s nothing to write home about. They were lucky to pick up a draw on the opening weekend against RB Leipzig, but then you could say they were unlucky to lose last weekend to Freiburg. In between those games they drew 2-2 with Werder Bremen, another side likely involved in the relegation battle this season. Koln have had a much more impressive start to the season – they hammered Schalke on the opening weekend and then picked up two draws away to RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt. They have been playing solid football, and they will challenge for the European spots again this season. For me, Stuttgart are there for the taking. They are a bang average side, and I was surprised to see Koln trading as big as 2.16 when I clicked into the market. You can easily make the case that they should be shorter here given their level of form over the last while, and they should be able to deal with this average Stuttgart side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Koln to beat Stuttgart at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolStu
BARCELONA V REAL VALLADOLID
6.30pm We move to La Liga next as Barcelona host Real Valladolid. We have the shortest price of the day here as Barcelona are trading 1.19 at the time of writing. Given they were trading very similar odds to beat Rayo Vallecano on the opening weekend and failed to win, I would suggest that they just might be one heavy favourite to leave out of your Betdaq Multiple this weekend. They have a lot going on off the pitch, and I’d just be keen to keep stakes small on Barcelona at the moment. That being said, if you look at the stats here then there is only one winner. There’s a pretty big gulf in class between the sides here, and they also come into the game in different places too. Even though Barcelona failed to find the net against Rayo Vallecano, their performance was still good. They finished the game with an xG of 2.18 and they would win most games with that. They then hammered Real Sociedad 4-1 in an impressive display. Compare those figures to Real Valladolid who were well beaten on the opening weekend against Villarreal and then although they claimed a 1-1 draw against Sevilla last weekend, they conceded an xG of 2.28 in a game they should have lost. They have started the season poorly at the back, and that’s not what you want when you are coming to face Barcelona!
With Barcelona trading such a short price in the match odds market, I’m happy to look towards the side markets to find some value. For me there is only one winner here; of course naturally I’m happy to keep stakes limited given the situation at Barcelona, but nevertheless the underlining numbers are screaming Barcelona here. Real Valladolid are just conceding too many chances. Barcelona came good in front of goal last weekend against Real Sociedad, but they do always play well against them. They might not score as much here, but the 1.5 on them to cover the 1.5 goal handicap is worth an investment. I just can’t see Valladolid stopping Barcelona going forward given their issues, and Barcelona won’t even have to be at their best to cover that handicap.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Real Valladolid at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarVal
FIORENTINA V NAPOLI
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A in Italy as Fiorentina host Napoli. This should be a cracker! It’s definitely the highlight fixture of the day in terms of quality. Fiorentina may have finished down in 7th last season compared to Napoli in 3rd; however at home Fiorentina were different gravy. If you take home form alone, they finished 2nd just four points behind Inter Milan. They won 13 of their 19 home games, with just four defeats all season. Interestingly for this fixture, one of those defeats was a 2-1 loss to Napoli! They managed to get their own back by winning 3-2 later in the season when Napoli had home advantage but Napoli actually have a good record here. They have won the last three Serie A meetings here, and they are unbeaten in four. For a side so strong at home, Fiorentina actually have more success against Napoli when they are away from home. Napoli were only one of three sides to bring a 100% record into this weekend, there was nothing surprising about their opening two wins – they hammered Verona and Monza. I suppose they did start a shade of odds against away to Verona, but they were fully expected to beat Monza who came up from Serie B.
Fiorentina have started the season reasonably well – they beat Cremonese 3-2 on the opening weekend, but it was probably a negative that they conceded twice to be honest. Then they grinded out a 0-0 draw away to Empoli, but they did create an xG figure of nearly double what they conceded. Probably still a little disappointing given they had close to 30 minutes with a man advantage after a red card for Empoli. It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here, but you would definitely edge towards Napoli. However, the 2.2 is a very fair price – I think the market has that one correct – you couldn’t argue that they should be shorter given the home record of Fiorentina but given the form of Napoli and their record here I wouldn’t want to be against them either. Napoli have been in the goals at the start of the season, but this is definitely a few levels up quality wise. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.73, but I actually feel we’ll have a very cagey game here and I like the Unders at 2.3. I can see this being a proper Italian cagey close game between two solid sides – I’d have that market closer to 50/50!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioNap
ESPANYOL V REAL MADRID
9pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Espanyol host Real Madrid. It’s been a great start to the season for Real Madrid – they’ve won their opening two fixtures and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla have all already dropped points. It’s going to be hard to get the title off them. Espanyol have had a disappointing start to the season with only one point from their two games – they haven’t played too badly, but they conceded four goals in two games. Not great stats considering you are hosting one of the best teams in the world here! Espanyol conceded an average xG of 1.6 per La Liga game last season and only created 1.1, so it’s clear they are going to struggle again. They are too good to go down, but they will likely finish around that 14th position again this season. Espanyol actually won this fixture last season, grinding out a 2-1 win but Real Madrid finished with a marginally higher xG figure. I wouldn’t say Real have a fantastic record here – they have won two and lost two from their last four La Liga visits. Perhaps that is a reason not to back the 1.49 – I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back them at those odds, despite them being levels above Espanyol.
Even in April when the sides met at the Santiago Bernabeu, Real won 4-0 but they also conceded an xG of 2.40 so Espanyol should have made more of a game of it. When I look at this game I just feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest – Real will very likely win the end, but I can see it being a lot tougher than 1.49 suggests. From a value point of view, I wouldn’t put anyone off laying Real – especially for a trade – at the odds. The market is also expecting goals here as Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.64 – I’m not sure I’d have it that short. In the last ten La Liga meetings between the sides, Overs has only landed three times. Of course we always see a goal or two, and we have had some crazy games with 4-0 and 4-2 wins for Real, but usually we get a cagey affair. I can see Real having to grind out a win here, and Under 2.5 goals is my value bet at 2.4 or even bigger if you can get it closer to kick off. The stats support it, and I do expect a close game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EspRea
