SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games starting with REAL MADRID v MALLORCA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V MALLORCA
1pm We have an exciting Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchangein Europe with action from La Liga and the Bundesliga. We start the day with the Spanish Champions Real Madrid hosting Mallorca. The visitors were in a relegation battle last season and only managed to stay up on the final day, needless to say 99% of football fans will expect a comfortable win for Real Madrid here given the gulf in class between the sides. I have to say I was actually a little surprised to see Real Madrid trading as high as 1.3 when I clicked into the market – I felt they would be closer to 1.2. I’m not going to tip a price of 1.3 as you get no prizes for tipping that low, but I couldn’t put anyone off including them in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. I definitely feel the 1.3 is good value. They had another comfortable win midweek in the Champions League away to Celtic, and they have pretty much been in cruise control this season. It was great to land a Max Bet on them at the odds midweek, and hopefully we can land another bet here! They have been playing a pretty open game this season, but they have been fantastic going forward.
Their xG figures going forward this season read 3.32, 3.39, 2.16, 3.28 and 2.54. They haven’t played any major sides – Real Betis was the biggest challenge, but you can’t know Real they have been consistently impressive. Mallorca have started their season with a win and two draws from their four games, and they will be happy with that start. They lost 2-1 to Real Betis and conceded an xG of 2.31 with home advantage but then they played out two very even games against Rayo Vallecano (which they won) and Girona. They picked up a 0-0 draw against Athletic Bilbao as well but they were very lucky there as they conceded an xG of 2.02. With Real trading 1.3 in the match odds market, I feel that price is offering good value in the handicap markets. I’d have them much shorter than 1.82 -1.5 goals, and I fully expect them to cover that handicap. As I said, they have been banging in goals and chances for fun this season – I really feel this should be one way traffic and the 1.82 is worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Mallorca at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaMal
KOLN V UNION BERLIN
2.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga as Koln host Union Berlin. This might not be the most glamorous fixture of the day, but it’s a cracker. Long-term readers will know I am a big fan of both these sides, and they both offer nice value in the market – maybe not when they are playing each other but generally I feel they are both under bet in the market. We have already landed nice Max Bets on both sides this season, and hopefully we can continue the winning run here – we even landed a Bayern Munich lay against Union Berlin last weekend! That was a great performance from Union Berlin – obviously you are always up against it trying to get a result against a side like Bayern but they only conceded an xG of 1.23 which is clearly very impressive. So far they are the only side to cope with Bayern – I know Bayern have dropped points elsewhere but they bossed that game and should have won. Along with Bayern, these are the only two sides yet to be beaten in the Bundesliga this season. Union Berlin have definitely been a little bit more impressive than Koln, but you can’t knock Koln for grinding out results.
While I expected an open market when I clicked in to see the odds, I didn’t expect to see such a big gap between the sides. In my opinion, Koln look too short at 2.46 and Union Berlin too big at 3.05. For me the only question here is do I lay Koln to also have the draw on my side or back Union Berlin. I feel there is good value with both options. Although Union Berlin are a very solid side and have been improving over the last few years, I can see them having to work very hard to win here and grind out a result. In that sense, I’m happy with the Koln lay and having the draw on my side too. Koln have produced some low xG figures at times this season and we could easily see a low scoring game here so I’m happy to lay Koln at the odds. Once again Union Berlin can land a nice bet for us – Koln will have to play exceptionally well to beat them.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Koln to beat Union Berlin at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolUni
GETAFE V REAL SOCIEDAD
5.30pm We move back to La Liga next as Getafe host Real Sociedad. This is an interesting market – Getafe have been hanging around the relegation mix for a while and they will very likely be involved in it again this season. So far they have only managed one point from their four games, and they clearly have issues going forward too. They grinded out a 0-0 draw here against Villarreal but they conceded an xG of over three times what they created. On paper, Getafe look there for the taking in my opinion and it’s hard to see past Real Sociedad at around 2.3. As I said midweek in the Europa League, Real Sociedad have been very consistent over the last number of years. They aren’t good enough to crack into the top four but they are a side who will finish 5th or 6th – basically a Europa League side. They have had a positive start to the season – they lost 4-1 to Barcelona but apart from that they have picked up two wins and a draw against Atletico Madrid. That game finished 1-1 last weekend but it was an entertaining affair with Real Sociedad creating an xG of 1.63 and conceding 2.11. Away from home, they have bagged 1-0 wins against Cadiz and Elche.
Getafe are basically a very similar level to Cadiz and Elche, and I would have Real Sociedad shorter than 2.3 here. Getafe don’t create much going forward, and they have consistently conceded chances at the start of the season. Indeed if you look at the stats last season they tried to keep games very tight because they were only creating an average xG of 0.9 per La Liga game. In fairness to them, they only conceded an average xG of 1.2 which is impressive and I have no doubt their aim will be to sit back and defend here. In that sense I can understand why punters are happy to lay Real Sociedad – perhaps even they will trade bigger in-running – but I expected to see them at least ten ticks shorter and from an outright point of view, the 2.3 is too big to turn down. Getafe are an average side, and they are there for the taking. Sociedad are playing well enough to beat them too.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Sociedad to beat Getafe at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GetSoc
REAL BETIS V VILLARREAL
8pm We finish the evening in La Liga with Real Betis hosting Villarreal. This should be a high quality fixture between two great sides. Villarreal have had a very position start to the season with three wins and a draw from their four games, while Real Betis have won three and lost once to Real Madrid which is no shame at all. These two were in the battle for the Europa League spots last season, and they will be targeting that again this season however surely the Sevilla start to the season has peaked their interest! Maybe they can break into the top four now – that start for Sevilla has set them massively on the back foot, and these two are definitely the sides who can step into that fourth position. Villarreal would have been very disappointed to draw 0-0 away to Getafe because Getafe will be involved in the relegation battle this season, but they did finish the game with an xG figure over three times what they conceded and it was just one of those days that they did find the net. They have created xG figures of 1.7, 2.23, 1.45 and 4.42 this season – obviously their most impressive result was a 2-0 win coming away to Atletico Madrid.
It’s easy to see why we have an open market here, and I would expect a very close game too. Villarreal are currently favourites at 2.5 while Real Betis are trading 2.98. Real Betis have put together two decent performances and two slightly worrying. I’m not going to read too much into the Real Madrid loss because they just aren’t at that level and Real have started the season on fire, but they were very lucky to beat Osasuna. They conceded an xG over three times what they created. They easily beat Elche and Mallorca but they will be two sides towards the bottom of the table this season. I feel a lot points to a Villarreal win here – they come into the game in good form and have been creating a lot of chances this season while being solid at the back. I’m going to keep stakes small because we do have two good sides here, but Villarreal edge it for me at 2.5.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Villarreal to beat Real Betis at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetVil
