LA LIGA / SERIE A / LIGUE 1 SUNDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SEVILLA V GETAFE
3.15pm What a fantastic Sunday we have in Europe! We have cracking fixtures across three leagues with La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the focus today on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start in La Liga as Sevilla host Getafe. Sevilla will still want to hammer Getafe, but Getafe did Sevilla a massive favour last weekend when beating Real Madrid 1-0. That has closed the gap at the top of La Liga, and Sevilla fans can dream a little longer. It’s highly likely that they will come up short in the title race, but with Atletico Madrid and Barcelona so far behind this season – the chance is there for them to be the top challenger. As I have said in recent weeks, that would be a big achievement for Sevilla who have taken up fourth spot for the last few seasons. While Getafe were involved in a relegation battle, they have climbed out of that with a very good recent run. They have gone six games unbeaten now, but they are still slap bang in the relegation battle given Elche and Alaves started the weekend on 16 points while Getafe have 18.
Although Getafe were a little lucky to beat Real Madrid last weekend because they conceded a higher xG than they created, they managed to keep Real to an xG of just 0.89 which is quite the achievement. They had home advantage though, which obviously makes this tie a little tougher. The sides met very early in the season, and it was a reasonably close game but Sevilla grinded out a deserved 1-0 win. They needed a stoppage time goal though, and it was a very close affair. With the tactics from both sides here being a little cagey, naturally your eyes go to the goals market. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.54 though, and I can’t disagree with those odds. I expect a very cagey game here. If the odds were a little higher, I would go with unders but 1.54 looks fair value. The best value I feel is the Sevilla win, priced higher than unders, at 1.62. I know Getafe are on a good run, but Sevilla are still levels above them and they can grind out another win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Sevilla to beat Getafe at 1.62 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSevGte
ROMA V JUVENTUS
5.30pm Next we move to Serie A for a Sunday afternoon cracker as Roma host Juventus. It’s been a big few days for these sides as Serie A returned on Thursday with a full fixture list (bar the postponed games because of Covid19!). Roma lost 3-1 to AC Milan and Juventus had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Napoli. As I said prior to those games, those results were going to shake up the league standings and now the pressure is really on Jose Mourinho. Juventus are still in the top four race, but a win against Napoli would have made their job easier – as it stands they have a lot of work to do. Roma have dropped down to 7th after Thursday’s games and that has been a big drop after their fast start to the season. We even had Jose running up the touchline to celebrate goals, now he is back fighting with the media – some things never change! He would love a win here though, and a big game against Juventus will always get the juices going. Juventus have been pretty average since selling Ronaldo, but they have put a decent run together to get back into the top four mix.
I was happy to lay Juventus at the odds against Napoli on Thursday, and a 1-1 draw was a reasonably fair result. Juventus had a higher xG figure, but there wasn’t much in it. Juventus have put together their good run against average sides, and while I felt Napoli would do well – it’s hard to see Roma being as reliable as Napoli! Juventus are trading 2.32 here and if anything, those odds are pretty tempting today rather than laying them. I know this is a tricky away tie, but Roma have just been giving away too many chances recently. They conceded an xG of 2.98 against AC Milan and when you look down their xG figures they do concede quite a lot. They lost here recently to Inter Milan too, and while they managed a shock win against Atalanta everything else points to them coming up short against the top sides. I fully take on board Juventus haven’t been at their best this season, so I will limit stakes because of that, but the 2.32 is worth taking here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Juventus to beat Roma at 2.32 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRomJuv
LYON V PSG
7.45pm We move to Ligue 1 in France next as Lyon host PSG! You don’t get many big games in France as there aren’t many top sides to challenge PSG, but this is definitely an interesting fixture. Lyon are having a poor season as they sit in mid-table but they finished in the top four last season and apart from the 2019/20 season they have been a top four side consistently. Despite PSG having all their superstars, this will be a tough away tie for them. PSG will be without Lionel Messi here who has had a dramatic few days – he tested positive for Covid19 and then tested negative so returned to Paris. Even a popular DJ had to come out and deny he gave Messi Covid! He’s training alone at the moment, and given his positive test was less than a week ago he’ll hardly line-up here despite the negative test. To be honest, Messi hasn’t really been in top form since arriving to Paris. It’s hard to give one of the greatest players of all time stick, but he definitely looks like he’s going through the motions in Paris. Perhaps the Champions League will liven him up soon.
Lyon had a fantastic time in Europe this season, topping their Europa League Group with ease but it has been a different story domestically. They are unbeaten in their last four games in all competitions and but they have still been conceding chances. They gave away an xG of 2.02 against Lille for example and 2.64 against Bordeaux. Although PSG have the title won already, you do get the sense that there is almost too many stars in the team, and they aren’t exactly a “team” in the sense that they don’t gel together well. They have more than enough talent to win here though. Lyon are having an average season and conceding a host of chances – you just can’t concede those types of xG figures against a side like PSG. The away win is worth taking here at 1.98.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Lyon at 1.98 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLyoPsg
VILLARREAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day as Villarreal host Atletico Madrid. When you look at the top four situation, you actually feel Atletico are in a little danger. Real Madrid and Sevilla are the clear top two this season, and then there really isn’t much between 3rd and 7th. You have Barcelona in the mix there, and Real Betis will likely be the ones to drop out of the top four. That being said, Atletico are under pressure and they clearly haven’t been themselves this season. They have been conceding too many goals, and not taking their chances. They started the season not creating enough chances to win games, and now they are creating chances they just aren’t taking them! They lost two big games in December against Real Madrid and Sevilla, but both times they finished the game with a higher xG and they were away from home too. They then make things worse with a 2-1 loss away to Granada, again creating a bigger xG than the winning side. They managed to start the year with a massive 2-0 win over Rayo Vallecano though, and that was a big win when you look at the table at the moment.
Villarreal would usually be in the mix sitting around 6th place too, but they started the weekend sitting in 8th and they have been lacklustre this season. Sitting in 8th has actually been an improvement, as they have put together five straight wins in all competitions. They have been banging in goals for fun – they have scored 18 goals in those five games. They ended 2021 with a 5-2 win and started 2022 with a 5-0 win! Obviously they step up quite a few levels opposition wise here, but the 3-1 win over Real Sociedad was impressive and I feel they can give Atletico a lot of problems here. Villarreal may have started the season poorly, but now seems a good time to support them – they are playing fantastic football and Atletico are still searching for their best game. We have a very open market here with both sides almost priced the same, however I feel the value is with the home side here – this fixture seems to fall at the ideal time, and the 2.88 is worth a small bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Villarreal to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.88 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilAti
