SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between REAL BETIS v ATLETICO MADRID, ATALANTA v LAZIO, ROMA v NAPOLI and BARCELONA v ATHLETIC BILBAO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL BETIS V ATLETICO MADRID
3.15pm We have a fantastic Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! It’s actually been a fantastic week with plenty of action, and we have more games to enjoy here from La Liga and Serie A. We have some huge clashes in Serie A later on, but we start the day in La Liga as Real Betis host Atletico Madrid. This is a huge game for both sides when you look at the table. They started the weekend sitting in fourth and fifth level on points with each other having played the same amount of games. Will Sevilla starting the season very slowly, that fourth spot has definitely opened up and while Atletico Madrid will be very confident of finishing in the top four – Real Betis will be eyeing that fourth spot and Champions League football. They made huge improvement last season to finish a solid fifth and they were in the mix for a top four finish for a while. They finished the season poorly though, however with Sevilla so far behind they might be able to hang on this season. We should have a cracking game here to be honest, and it’s easy to understand why we have an open market. Atletico come into the game as favourites, but Betis have won all five of their home games this season.
Although when you look at those five wins you could say that they had an easy fixture list apart from Villarreal, who did finish with a higher xG figure than them too, but Betis have been hard to beat all season. Only really Real Madrid outplayed them this season, and while they have rode their luck at times the best word to describe them is solid. Personally I wouldn’t have Atletico as short as 2.47 here, because they have been fully firing this season. They have put in some good performances and some average ones. They come into the game with a good away record, but they are conceding a lot more chances this season. At the moment they are getting away with that – their average xG conceded is 1.4 but their actual figure is 0.8. At some point they are going to start conceding more goals if they keep giving away those chances. I expect a very close game here between two top sides, and I’m happy to take a position against Atletico at the odds. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a draw, however with Real Betis run of home wins it’s nice to have them on our side too.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Real Betis at 2.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetAtl
ATALANTA V LAZIO
5pm Next we move over to Serie A where we have two huge games this evening. We start with Atalanta hosting Lazio with only three points between the sides. Atalanta will be delighted to have home advantage in such a big game – they started the weekend just two points off league leaders Napoli at the top of the table. Lazio aren’t far behind, and you can tell that it’s going to be an immense title race in Serie A this season. Roma and Napoli clash later on, so it’s going to be a big day of results and we should have a better idea where we stand in the title race after today. Obviously both sides have been superb in Serie A this season, indeed Atalanta bring an unbeaten record into this game while Lazio have only been beaten once and that was against Napoli. Lazio were involved in another big game last weekend against Udinese who have also started the season on fire, but they played out a very boring 0-0 which broke a run of three 4-0 wins in Serie A. Although you have to give Lazio credit for their impressive start to the season, they are massively over-performing at the moment and you would have to expect that to level out at some stage. They are over-performing at both ends of the pitch; their average xG created is 1.3 but the actual goals scored average is 2.1. They average xG conceded is 1.3 but the actual is 0.5. As the season goes on, this figures will come within line of expected.
Atalanta are also over-performing compared to their under-lining numbers, but not as much as Lazio. They have been playing the better football creating an average xG of 1.5 and the actual is only marginally over that at 1.6. When they are over-performing is at the back because they should be conceding more goals, but there’s basically not much to critical over. Apart from a 1-1 draw here with Cremonese which is obviously disappointing, you’d have to be very happy with the home form of Atalanta – they also drew 1-1 with AC Milan but there’s no shame in that. While I feel Atalanta should come out on top here, they are trading 2.02 and it’s hard to make the case that they should be odds on. I know Lazio have been over-performing, but you have to give credit for grinding out results. I feel we’ll get a very tight and cagey classic Italian game here, and Under 2.5 goals looks the best option at 2.2 – I felt we’d see a 2.0 either side market there and the 2.2 looks a nice value play in what should be a close game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaLaz
ROMA V NAPOLI
7.45pm We stay in Serie A for the highlight fixture of the day as Roma host Napoli. I am buzzing for this fixture, and it will be fascinating to see how Jose Mourinho lines up this Roma side against the league leaders. If you look at the xG table, these are the top two sides in Serie A this season. Roma are sitting top of that table, but you have to respect Napoli – they are performing well and getting the job done. Roma have dropped points along the way, and while you can say that they have been unlucky – at some stage you have to say that they should be taking their chances! This should be a wonderful fixture though – Napoli come here on a long unbeaten run in both Serie A and the Champions League. They have been leaking a few goals lately – indeed their recent five games since the International break have been very entertaining! I can’t see Roma sitting back here, especially at home, and we should have a very open game here. We have a very open match odds market too – Napoli come into the game as favourites at around 2.5 but Roma are solid at 3.0. If I had to pick a bet in the match odds market I would opt for Roma from a value point of view, but I’m happy to play in the goals market here.
Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value here at 1.87. You only have to look at the xG figures from Napoli this season to see that they are happy playing a very open game but they have equally been very impressive going forward – their last four xG figures read 3.61, 2.95, 4.16 and 4.21. Two of those games were against Ajax in the Champions League as well – Roma have also been fantastic going forward but they have had a few setbacks in Europa League recently. In fairness they were very unlucky to lose here to Real Betis because they finished the game with an xG of 2.28 while losing 2-1. In their two recent Serie A games they finished with xG figures of 3.24 v Lecce and 2.4 away to Sampdoria. I feel this game just screams goals and hopefully we get an entertaining end-to-end game because that’s what it looks like we’ll have. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.87, and while there is a chance we could have a classic cagey Italian game, I feel the 1.87 is big enough for a Max Bet. We have had an excellent run with the Max Bets recently and hopefully we can continue here!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomNap
BARCELONA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the evening as Barcelona host Athletic Bilbao. I know most eyes will be on Roma v Napoli at roughly the same time, but there should be plenty of opportunity to enjoy this game with the Serie A game kicking off 15 minutes earlier. Barcelona very much needed that win midweek against Villarreal and it was as smooth as possible. They were 3-0 up by half-time, and it was game over after that. They kept Villarreal to an xG of just 0.74 and it was a nice bounce back performance after losing El Clasico and looking likely to crash out of the Champions League too. Athletic Bilbao have made a positive start to the season, but on paper this should be a routine win for Barcelona. The 1.57 on Barcelona is a very tempting bet – I felt that they would be shorter than 1.5 here given their performances this season. While Athletic Bilbao started the season on fire, they have put together three games without a win now. In fairness, they did have to play Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, but then again Sevilla have been bang average this season and they were average away to Getafe midweek too. Their under-lining numbers are good so I can see why some punters want to be against Barcelona at the odds, but for me they should have too much firepower here.
Athletic Bilbao are creating an average xG of over 2.0 this season which is clearly impressive but Barcelona have bene creating an average xG of 2.9 which is incredible. Both sides are conceding close to one goal per game on average, and you can’t really knock the defences. Even though Barcelona lost 3-1 in El Clasico, they did finish the game with a higher xG figure and that just highlights how good they have been playing this season. They are basically creating the same volume of chances they did when Messi was here – that’s a very good sign for Barcelona going forward, and although they are a little behind in the title race now after El Clasico it’s still going to be a good race. For tonight, I expect them to outclass this Athletic Bilbao side and create more to win the game. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes, but I’d have Barcelona a little under 1.5 here so they are a confident bet at 1.57. What an interesting day we have ahead though, hopefully it’s a good one!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAth
