SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between ATLETICO MADRID v ESPANYOL, ROMA v LAZIO and JUVENTUS v INTER MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V ESPANYOL
1pm We have a fascinating Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with some cracking action from La Liga and Serie A. There’s no doubt all eyes will be on Juventus v Inter Milan later in Serie A, but we kick the action off in La Liga with Atletico Madrid hosting Espanyol. Atletico come into this fixture on a low after crashing out of the Champions League midweek, and losing to Cadiz last weekend. They simply haven’t been good enough in the Champions League this season, and they couldn’t even manage third spot for a place in the Europa League when losing to Porto. It’s not like they were in the title race before losing to Cadiz last weekend, but that loss leaves them nine points behind Real Madrid at the top of the table. With Sevilla being so poor this season, I can’t see Atletico being under pressure for a top four spot but it does seem that their season is nearly over which is very upsetting so early! I suppose they can have a good go at the Copa del Rey now, but if they crash out of that early it will be a very uneventful and boring season for them which is a shame.
With home advantage here, they will be expected to beat this Espanyol side. They are trading the shortest price in La Liga today – currently 1.51 at the time of writing. Espanyol started the weekend sitting down in 15th and they are only one point off the bottom three. There’s no question that they are involved in the relegation battle at the moment, and you expect Celta Vigo and Sevilla to overtake them at some stage – despite those two playing poor football this season. That being said, Espanyol have only lost once in their last six games, and they finished that game with a higher xG figure than they conceded too. They have already had four 2-2 results this season which must be a record, but in general they try to keep games reasonably tight. Atletico haven’t been playing good football this season, and they could make hard work of this. They are creating an average xG of 1.4 this season and conceding the same – Espanyol’s figures aren’t too far off that, they are conceding more chances though which you would expect given their position in the league. I couldn’t put anyone off the Atletico lay at 1.51, but I like Under 2.5 goals here at 1.83. Neither side have been banging in the goals for fun, and if Espanyol sit back they can frustrate Atletico.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AltEsp
ROMA V LAZIO
5pm Next we move over to Serie A where we have two wonderful fixtures! I’m sure Juventus v Inter Milan will take most of the headlines, but we start the evening with a massive fixture too as Roma host Lazio. You only have to look at the table to see how important this fixture is – Roma moved up to fourth position last weekend after Lazio lost, and with Juventus and Inter Milan dropping a lot of points already this season, surely there is a spot open in the top four for one of these two. That’s what makes this game so important though – I can’t see both of them getting Champions League football, so if there is a loser here they will definitely be on the backfoot. You have to hand it to Jose Mourinho – he has turned this Roma side into a fantastic team. He’s given them their first major European trophy, attracted more season tickets this season and now they are in the mix for a top foru spot. Indeed, could you rule them out of a title challenge? They started the weekend seven points behind Napoli, but they have been unlucky at times this season. The Serie A xG table puts them in second place but you have to hand it to Napoli – they are top of the xG table too and have been playing some great football. Looking at the xG table did throw out something interesting heading into this fixture – Lazio are sitting down in mid-table. They have definitely been over-performing at the start of the season – their average xG created is 1.3 but they are scoring 2 goals per game and their average xG conceded is also 1.3, but they are actually conceding only 0.7. Eventually their results will fall in line with their performances.
Roma’s under-lining numbers are almost the exact opposite of Lazio. They are creating an average xG of 2.1 per game in Serie A this season but they aren’t taking all those chances – their actual is 1.3 per game. While they have been rock solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is just 0.6 but they are conceding 0.9 which is still good. Those are stats of title challengers to be honest, but Roma are a while away from mounting a challenge for the title – perhaps next season if Mourinho can keep hold of the dressing room. It’s not a surprise to see Roma as favourites here given their stats and home advantage, but I believe the 2.14 still offers some nice value. They aren’t quite a Max Bet like they were against Verona on Monday night, but they are a confident selection to get the job done here. I would expect a reasonably cagey game too, I don’t see Lazio attacking too much and I also couldn’t put anyone off Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 but it’s Roma at 2.14 for my best bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Roma to beat Lazio at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomLaz
JUVENTUS V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We have saved the best for last this Sunday as Juventus host Inter Milan! It’s fair to say that both sides haven’t been at their best this season, and both of them started the weekend sitting outside the top four. Juventus had their struggles last season, but a powerful mid-season run saw them get Champions League football again. That might prove tougher this season, and while Inter Milan took the title race right down to the final game of the season last time, they started the weekend already eight points behind Napoli at the top of the table. I’m not fully sure what has been going on at Juventus this season, but they had a woeful Champions League campaign – they only managed three points from their six games, losing to Benfica twice. They managed to get into the Europa League on goal difference, and it will be interesting to see how they get on there. If you look at the Juventus squad and their stats, there’s nothing alarming in there – there’s no area you’re looking at going “that explains their poor results.” That’s why things have been confusing really – they were always going to struggle last season after losing all those goals from Ronaldo, but this season they have been even worst but arguably a better squad. What the Old Lady do have is a good record at home in Serie A this season; they have yet to be beaten here, and they have scored a lot more goals too.
Juventus have banged in 15 goals in their six home games this season, but their toughest test was against Roma when they drew 1-1. They actually conceded an xG of over double what they created in that game though. Inter Milan lost midweek to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but we can’t be too harsh on them for that. They had been putting some wins together before that game, and they seem to be improving from earlier in the season. They are conceding too many sloppy goals at the moment, and when they fix that issue I’d expect them to put plenty of wins together. They are creating an average xG of 1.9 per Serie A game this season and only conceding 0.9. I wasn’t surprised to see a very open market when I clicked in to check the odds here, but for me there’s only one winner and that’s Inter Milan. Juventus just haven’t been good enough this season and Inter are clearly playing better football. The 2.43 is too big to turn down and it will be my best bet; however I couldn’t put anyone off Under 2.5 goals either at 1.86 because I don’t expect too many fireworks here. We could see a very cagey start; perhaps Under 2.5 goals for a trade, and Inter to win taking the lead in the second half.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Inter Milan to beat Juventus at 2.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvInt
