SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CELTA VIGO V REAL VALLADOLID
3.15pm We have a fantastic Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A! We have some massive fixtures to enjoy today, and we kick the day off in La Liga as Celta Vigo host Real Valladolid. I wouldn’t quite call this a massive relegation six pointer because both sides start the weekend only two points outside the bottom three. The loser will have a little cushion, but they will also be under intense pressure. For the winner, if there is one, they move a little further away from danger. As you can imagine given where both sides are sitting in the table, their under-lining numbers are average. Real Valladolid have been poor away from home this season – only netting seven points from their 11 away games. They have been very poor at the back this season – their average xG conceded is 1.8 which is quite high but not unexpected given they are in the relegation battle. Not only have they been poor at the back, they haven’t been creating many chances either. They are converting even less too, scoring less than one goal per game on average this season. Celta Vigo are creating the exact same xG figure going forward as they are conceding, and they have a more solid look to them. You’d be surprised if they went down this season.
The home sides are the odds on favourites – currently trading 1.73 at the time of writing. It’s hard to argue with that too given real Valladolid haven’t got many results away from home this season. I wouldn’t say that Celta Vigo have been overly impressive at home either however, on the home form table they sit just outside the bottom three with 13 points from 11 games. They have been playing reasonably well lately though – they deserved their 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad last weekend and didn’t play badly against Atletico Madrid the week before. They are definitely more solid at the back compared to Real Valladolid, but you have two sides here who are quite limited going forward. This is such an important game for both of them too, I feel we’ll see a very cagey game. Under 2.5 goals is 1.78 and I feel this offers a lot more value compared to backing the home win at 1.73. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 here either!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelVal
BAYERN MUNICH V UNION BERLIN
4.30pm We move over to the Bundesliga next for a huge top of the table clash as Bayern Munich host Union Berlin. Bayern Munich really opened up the title race with a 3-2 loss against Gladbach last weekend, and they have dropped plenty of points this season. At the start of the weekend, Bayern, Dortmund and Union Berlin all sat on 43 points. Union Berlin will be kicking themselves for only drawing last weekend against Schalke. If you’re going to have any chance of shocking everyone with a title, you simply have to win games at home against the side who sit bottom of the table. Schalke stopped them from playing, and Union only finished the game with an xG of 0.92. They only conceded 0.34 but I don’t think that’s important – Schalke set out for a 0-0 draw and got one, it was disappointing from Union Berlin. Although this is a top of the table clash, you wouldn’t know it looking at the market. Bayern Munich are trading as short as 1.36 at the time of writing. I know there’s a big gulf in class between Bayern Munich and the rest of the Bundesliga, but this price probably highlights what the market thinks about the other sides! In fairness, Union Berlin have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season. Their average xG is down at 1.1, but their actual goals scored works out at an average of 1.7. That’s a massive gap, and eventually they will stop scoring from those awkward angles.
When you compare the under-lining numbers here, you can understand why Bayern Munich are so short. Their average xG created is a very high 2.3, and their average conceded is 1.2 just a little over Union Berlin at 1.1. The one thing you can say about Union Berlin is that they have been rock solid at the back all season, and I’m sure they will approach this game in a cagey fashion. Bayern will have to work hard to break them down, and despite them over-performing this season the 1.36 on a Bayern win does feel a little short. I do expect a closer game than those odds suggest, but I feel the best option here is in the handicaps markets. Union Berlin are trading 1.93 +1.5 goals and I feel this is a good value bet – it allows Bayern to grind out a win. I expect a close game here, and Union will mainly put XI men behind the ball so I can’t see a lot of goals. Under 2.5 goals is also an option at 2.53, but I prefer the handicap bet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Union Berlin +1.5 goals to beat Bayern Munich at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayUni
ALMERIA V BARCELONA
5.30pm We move back to La Liga next as Almeria host Barcelona. It was a disappointing week for Barcelona as they crashed out of the Europa League on Thursday night away to Manchester United. They lead 1-0 at half-time but United bounced back to win 2-1. Barcelona just didn’t play well enough over the two legs, and they didn’t deserve to go through. Maybe you could say they didn’t take the competition seriously again, but surely that wasn’t the case against Manchester United – they just weren’t good enough. They have been more than good enough in La Liga though, and started the weekend with an eight point lead – basically the job now is just to tick off each week and keep the gap as big as possible. Real Madrid will be busy with the Champions League as well, so it’s hard to see them catching Barcelona. This should be another three points with Almeria in the relegation battle. They started the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three in 17th, but surely they are viewing this as a bonus fixture – you can’t rely on results against Barcelona to stay up!
I was surprised to see Barcelona trading as high as 1.48 when I clicked into the market. I expected them to be shorter, maybe even a shade under 1.4. Almeria have conceded nine goals in their last two games, and got hammered 6-2 by Girona last weekend. We actually landed a Max Bet in that game on Girona, and I believe the 1.48 is worth a Max Bet on Barcelona here too. Barcelona have been creating some incredible xG figures going forward this season – their average xG created is 2.5 which is one of the highest figures around Europe’s biggest leagues. Compare that to Almeria who have been conceding an xG of 2.1 this season – we usually see those figures from sides in the relegation battle, and I can only see one winner here. The result on Thursday was a setback for Barcelona, but their focus will be fully on La Liga now and there’s a huge gulf in class between these sides. I’d have Barcelona shorter than 1.4 here and I’m very happy with five points win.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona to beat Almeria at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmBar
AC MILAN V ATALANTA
7.45pm We move over to Italy to finish a cracking day in Serie A as AC Milan host Atalanta. While Napoli are running away with the title, this is a huge game in the race for a top four finish. After lifting their first title for many years last season, AC Milan find themselves under pressure now to get back into the Champions League. They started the weekend three points behind Inter Milan and level on points with Roma. They’ll obviously be hoping Jose Mourinho’s men drop points somewhere, but they also have Lazio and Atalanta right behind them. Let’s not forget too, that the 15 point deduction for Juventus was a huge benefit to everyone else – Juventus were comfortably in the top four at the time, and they have worked their way back up to seventh since, but they are too far behind now. Atalanta started the weekend sitting in sixth, but they are three points behind AC Milan, and they have a better goal difference too so they can jump over them with a win here. The two sides should have the same amount of points because Atalanta really slipped up losing to Lecce last weekend. They were comfortably odds on to win with home advantage, but couldn’t get the job done.
You could say the same about their loss to Sassuolo too, but that came away from home. AC Milan have lost a lot of points since the World Cup, but they have put three wins together in all competitions against Torino, Spurs and Monza. Their xG figures were poor in their losses, but despite the fact on paper it looks like they’ve grinded out three 1-0 wins, they have actually played much better. They finished with an xG of 2.09 against Spurs and then 2.41 against Monza. They could have easily been two 3-0 wins, and now you’d have to say AC Milan come into this game in good form. I still feel that the 2.26 is too short on Milan – Atalanta have been playing very good football this season, and they have been rock solid at the back too. Their average xG conceded is only 1.1, and I feel they will make this game a lot closer than the odds suggest. From a value point of view, I’m very happy with the AC Milan lay at 2.26.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Atalanta at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmAta
