SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v REAL VALLADOLID, ROMA v SAMPDORIA, NAPOLI v AC MILAN and ATLETICO MADRID v REAL BETIS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V REAL VALLADOLID
3.15pm We have another blockbuster Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some top class action from La Liga and Serie A; but it appears the title race is over in both leagues now! The title race is Serie A has been over for a while, but Barcelona beating Real Madrid in El Clasico before the International break gave them a 12 point advantage and that’s the title won in my opinion. La Liga is where we start the day though, and we start with Real Madrid too as they host Real Valladolid. One wonders how morale is in the camp now they sit 12 points behind Barcelona – all their focus will switch to the Champions League and it will be interesting to see their next couple of performances in La Liga. Real Madrid won’t be back in action in the Champions League until the 12th of April, but when those fixtures against Chelsea get close I would expect to see a lot of squad rotation in La Liga. Anyone carrying a little knock won’t play, and maybe Valladolid will see this as a chance to cause a surprise result here. The points would be a complete bonus of course, but they would be very welcome given they are deep in a relegation battle.
The market is fully expecting a Real Madrid win – they are trading 1.24 at the time of writing which is one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend. To be honest it’s very hard to see past a comfortable home win here, there’s such a big gulf in class between the sides Real Madrid won’t have to be at their best to win. Valladolid have been poor at the back all season, they are conceding an average xG of 2.0 and they have also had problems away from home too. They’ve only managed eight points away from home all season. I feel the jury is definitely out on Real Madrid at the moment, morale and confidence must have been dealt a blow with the El Clasico loss and you have t wonder how motivated they will be in La Liga for the rest of the season. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but I feel Real Madrid can keep a clean sheet here. Valladolid have been poor up front with an average xG created of just 1.2, and Both Teams Not To Score looks a value bet at 1.92.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaRev
ROMA V SAMPDORIA
5pm We move over to Serie A next as Roma host Sampdoria. It’s been a fascinating race for the top four in Italy this season, and everyone has been dropping points! Napoli have the title won already – they are 19 points clear now. However, prior to the International break Inter Milan, AC Milan and Roma all lost so the top four race remains wide open. You could say that Jose Mourinho’s side have been lucky to stay in the race – they have dropped a lot of points lately. We now also have Lazio sitting in second, and they have probably been the most average side looking at the under-lining numbers. You have to give them credit though; they have grinded out results when the others haven’t. The International break was a chance for Mourinho and Rome to regroup. They had lost three of their last four Serie A games – in between was a win here against Juventus, but they really shouldn’t be dropping points to the likes of Cremonese and Sassuolo. They face another side sitting in the bottom three here, but Sampdoria have been marginally better than Cremonese this season – however that’s judged from a very low level – both sides have been terrible and they are getting relegated. After a very strong start to the season, Roma’s average xG created has dropped to 1.6 – it was sitting at 2.0 or bigger for a while and that has been a reflection of their recent average performances.
It’s hard to see past a Roma here win, and the market agrees. The home side are trading 1.46 at the time of writing. Sampdoria haven’t had many positive things to say this season – they are already nine points away from the 17th placed side at the start of the weekend. However, they do have more points away from home this season, so that’s something to consider before lumping on Roma here. To be honest, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Roma here given the way they were playing heading into the International break – they have been conceding a higher xG figure than they have been creating a lot lately. I feel Roma will win the end, but it won’t be pretty and they’ll have to work very hard. Sampdoria will be quite negative in their approach too, and Under 2.5 goals looks the value call at 1.87.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomSam
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
7.45pm We stay in Serie A next for the highlight of the day as Napoli host AC Milan. This should be a high quality fixture between last season’s Champions and this season! Napoli started this weekend with a 19 point lead at the top of Serie A, and what a season they are having. Serie A is in the bag, and they can afford to rest some of their star players when they come into the Champions League Quarter-Finals too because they have such a big lead. They were given a reasonably easy Champions League draw as well compared to what they could have got. They avoided Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid! They actually got AC Milan, and then will very likely meet Inter Milan in the Semi-Finals – two sides they have been miles ahead of this season domestically. With the first leg of the Champions League Quarter-Final coming up on the 12th of April, this is a massive fixture from a mental point of view. Winning will definitely give an edge heading into that tie, even if the title race is over. This is a vital game for AC Milan too – as is every game now – as they battle for a top four finish.
More dropped points before the International break meant they stayed sitting in fourth position, however there wasn’t any real damage done with Inter Milan and Roma losing too. They are still two points behind Inter and one behind Roma at the start of the weekend. Those losses probably bring Atalanta back into the mix, even though they were heading in the wrong direction for a while. On paper, these two are miles apart. Napoli have been different class this season, and I was surprised to see them trading as high as 1.79 with home advantage here. AC Milan have been pretty poor by their standards away from home this season – only 19 points from 14 games on the road. Napoli have been bomb-proof at home and their under-lining numbers are exceptional too. I can only see a one way traffic win here for the home side, and at 1.79 I’m happy to have a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Napoli to beat Inter Milan at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapAcm
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL BETIS
8pm We move back La Liga to finish Sunday as Atletico Madrid host Real Betis. The title race might be over with Barcelona going clear, but there’s still a lot to play for in behind. Atletico Madrid haven’t been having their best season, but they put together ten games unbeaten in La Liga prior to the International break. That has put them into third, and in a very strong position too. They have a six point lead over Real Betis who started the weekend sitting in fifth. The most interesting battle is probably between Real Sociedad and Real Betis – there was three points between them at the start of the weekend. Real Sociedad haven’t started the last two seasons very fast but fallen away – so far this season they are hanging onto that top four spot – and in fairness they have been given a huge opportunity with Sevilla being so poor this season! Real Betis would have been the favourites to take that fourth spot when Sevilla started so slowly, but the season just hasn’t worked out for them so far. They have simply dropped too many points – they lost 3-0 to Valencia who are in the relegation battle for example! The main problem for Betis this season has been at the back – an average xG conceded of 1.5 is simply too high for a side who are aiming for a top four finish. It doesn’t help either that their average xG created is 1.5 too.
Atletico Madrid have clearly been in good form lately. The International break came at a bad time in that sense, and they will be hoping to continue their good momentum here. I have to say I was a little surprised to see them trading as short as 1.56 when I clicked into the market. I felt they would be favourites and trading odds on, but I didn’t expect to see them trading as short as that! The have better under-lining numbers than Betis but there isn’t a huge amount in it – they are just a little better up front and at the back – their average xG created is 1.7 and average conceded is 1.3. I’m going to keep stakes small because I fully respect Atletico have improved since the start of the season, but at the same time I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and I’m happy with a small lay on Atletico from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Real Betis at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRea
