SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top European action with recommended BETDAQ bets.
ATLETICO MADRID V OSASUNA
3.15pm It’s another cracking Sunday around Europe as we tick down to the end of the season. We have action from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with some wonderful fixtures to enjoy! We start the day in La Liga where the title race might be over, but Atletico Madrid are pushing to finish ahead of Real Madrid. It looked like Atletico were going to achieve that too as Real Madrid had been focused on the Champions League, but Atletico losing to Elche last weekend was a big setback – especially with Elche nailed to the bottom of the table all season. With the form that Atletico had been in heading into that game, that was definitely a shock result – they were trading in the 1.4’s away from home. They conceded a high xG figure, and it was just a poor performance. Real Madrid have to get over the fact that they were hammered by Manchester City in the Champions League midweek so this might be a chance for Atletico to close to gap. Real have a two point advantage at the moment. Osasuna are sitting in mid-table, but with Real Madrid winning the Copa del Rey there is extra European spots for La Liga so Osasuna have something to play for here.
They start the weekend sitting in ninth, but they have the same amount of points as Athletic Bilbao in eighth and they are both only one point behind Girona who take up the final European spot in seventh. In reality, Osasuna have more to play for than Atletico – finish above Real is just bragging rights. European football would be a fantastic result for Osasuna. Atletico come into the game trading as the heavy odds on favourites with home advantage. They are 1.42 at the time of writing with Osasuna 10.0 and the draw is 5.1. I have to say I was surprised to see Atletico trading that short – I know there’s a gulf in class between the sides and Atletico have been playing excellent football lately, but Osasuna made it to the Copa del Rey Final this season. Atletico will likely grind out a win, but the fact that they are trading so short gives value in the Handicap markets in my opinion. Osasuna can keep this tight, and I like the 1.76 +1.5 goals. Osasuna have on average two goals per La Liga game that they are involved in; one of the least entertaining sides goal wise to watch!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Osasuna +1.5 goals to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlOsa
AUGSBURG V DORTMUND
4.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga as Dortmund try to chase down Bayern Munich. By the time Dortmund kick off they will know their fate because Bayern Munich play RB Leipzig on Saturday. As I said in my preview of that game, betting wise there is far more chance of an upset this weekend than on the final day. Both Dortmund and Bayern Munich will be trading close to 1.3 to win on the final day. Dortmund couldn’t come into this game in better form after 6-0 and 5-2 wins over Wolfsburg and Gladbach. They will still be kicking themselves for being behind Bayern Munich though – draws against Stuttgart and Bochum, two sides in the relegation battle, have really cost them. Even before the run-in started, they drew 2-2 with Schalke who are also in the relegation battle – talk about costly results. It’s been great to have a close title race in Germany this year, but you have to feel this was Dortmund’s title to win given how below their best Bayern were this season. That being said, by the time they kick off here Bayern could have dropped points against Leipzig! All three of those draws for Dortmund have come away from home which has to be a little worry heading into this game. They really should be hammering Augsburg, but the market doesn’t have them excessively short. They are trading 1.46 at the time of writing which looks a fair price.
Dortmund have been fantastic at home this season – they actually have five more points than Bayern Munich have at home prior to this weekend with the same amount of games played. Away from home they haven’t been as solid, they only sit in fourth on the away form table. Augsburg are an average side who aren’t far away from the relegation battle – they started the weekend four points ahead of the bottom three – but it’s hard to make the case that Dortmund should be shorter than 1.46 here. With no value on offer in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. We had a very entertaining game when the sides met earlier in the year, Dortmund won 4-3 and these two have actually both scored in the last four meeting, and then nine from the last ten Bundesliga fixtures too! Away from home, Dortmund might leak a goal here and Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.63.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugDor
NAPOLI V INTER MILAN
5pm We move to Serie A to finish an intriguing Sunday where we have two cracking fixtures to finish the day. We start with Napoli hosting Inter Milan – this is the most open market of the day and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Napoli have confirmed the Serie A title, and it seems that they have been celebrating since – who could blame them of course, however they’ve only won once from their last four games. They lost 2-0 away to Monza last weekend, although they are likely to be “more up for” a clash with Inter Milan. It’s already been a fantastic week for Inter Milan as they got past AC Milan to get into the Champions League Final. The hard work was done in the first leg there as they won 2-0, but they were always in control on Tuesday – AC Milan only created an xG of 0.86. It will be interesting to see how Inter get on against Manchester City in the Final – obviously City are heavy favourites and all the pressure is on them. Inter come into this game in a strong position in the top four race, they have a five point advantage over AC Milan after AC Milan lost last weekend.
As I said above, we have a very open betting heat. Inter come into the game as the favourites at 2.7 with Napoli at 2.98 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. It’s easy to understand why Inter are the favourites here because they have a lot more to play for. I feel it’s very much a “they need to win more” price because Napoli have nothing to play for with the title in the bag. Inter have been playing great football recently as well – their xG figures have been very impressive and they have been scoring goals for fun. Usually you’d expect a close and cagey affair between these two, but I can’t see Napoli sitting back too much given the situation. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading odds against at 2.06 – the only negative for that is a draw wouldn’t be a bad result for Inter in the top four race. They would still have a decent advantage over AC Milan – I feel on balance the best option is a Napoli lay at the odds. They are in celebration mode at the moment and Inter can take advantage with a result away from home.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Napoli to beat Inter Milan at 2.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapInt
UDINESE V LAZIO
7.45pm We finish Sunday in Europe with Udinese hosting Lazio. This is another huge game for Lazio who are hanging on for dear life in the top four race at the moment. They have hugely benefitted from AC Milan and Roma dropping points recently because Lazio come into this game with just one win from their last five games. You have to give them credit for putting themselves in a strong position earlier in the season so they can afford to drop those points, but things might get tight for them. They have a four point advantage over AC Milan at the start of the weekend, thanks to AC Milan losing last weekend – otherwise they would be under immense pressure! You have to say from the top six teams in Italy, Lazio play the least attractive football. They have been “lucky” to be where they are in the table when you look at their under-lining numbers compared to the other sides around them. They are only averaging an xG of 1.3 and conceding an average of 1.2 at the back. They are over-performing at both ends of the pitch, but they do deserve credit for grinding out so many results.
Lazio come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t odds on. They are currently trading 2.06 with Udinese 4.0 and the draw is 3.65. Lazio have a great record away from home this season; only Napoli have more points away from home. Udinese sit in mid-table in the home form table, so nothing much changes there for them. They actually have very similar figures to Lazio this season, they are averaging an xG of 1.2 going forward and conceding an average of 1.3. There is 19 points between the sides in the table, which is probably a reflection of just how much Lazio have over-performed this season considering their stats are so similar. The xG table actually puts the sides together in mid-table. I fully respect the fact that Lazio have managed to grind out a lot of results this season and that their away record is impressive, but I’m still happy with a small lay at 2.06 here from a value point of view. I’m keeping stakes very small because Lazio do have more to play for, but these sides are very close on paper and the 2.06 is far too short.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Lazio to beat Udinese at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiLaz
