EUROPEAN FOOTBALL PREVIEW: The Ultra previews KOLN v GLADBACH, AC MILAN v JUVENTUS and BARCELONA v ATHLETIC BILBAO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V GLADBACH
2.30pm We have a brilliant Sunday around Europe, and it’s great to have domestic football back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! All eyes will be on AC Milan v Juventus as the highlight fixture in Serie A, but we have some excellent action from the Bundesliga and La Liga as well. We start the day in the Bundesliga as Koln host Gladbach. We have a very open betting heat here; Koln are the favourites with home advantage at 2.42 with Gladbach 3.0 and the draw is 3.8. Both sides come back from the International break under pressure, they’ve had very poor starts to the season. Koln sit rock bottom with only one point from their seven games while Gladbach have managed six points from their seven games which doesn’t leave them too far away from the bottom three. Gladbach have been in decline for a number of years now after finishing in the top four in 2019/20. There is an up-and-down nature to the Bundesliga teams outside of the big three of Bayern Munich, Dortmund and RB Leipzig. Just look at Union Berlin this season after being so solid last season.
As you would expect given where both sides are sitting in the table, they are both conceding more chances than they are creating. Gladbach have been one of the most entertaining sides around Europe to be fair; they are creating an average xG of 1.69 and conceding 1.84! That’s actually the third worst conceded figure in the Bundesliga, but their created figure is the fourth best! Koln have been playing a very open game too; this game absolutely screams goals to me and Over 2.5 goals stands out at 1.63. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because nothing stands out as value there, but with both sides so sloppy at the back Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.63. I thought it would be trading shorter than 1.5 when I clicked into the market never mind ten ticks or more over that! Gladbach have played an even more open game away from home too; their created and conceded xG is close to 2.0 and with Koln conceding chances as well the 1.63 is worth a Max Bet to start the day!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolGla
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A for a blockbuster as AC Milan host Juventus. With Inter Milan dropping points before the International break, AC Milan started this weekend top of the table. Juventus have had a good start to the season too however, and they are four points behind AC Milan. This should be a fascinating game, and it will give us an idea where the sides stands as regards to a title challenge this season. Napoli have dropped plenty of points already this season, and I thought Inter might step in and build a lead but they have dropped points too. Looking at the under-lining numbers you could say that neither side are playing fantastic football, but they are getting results. Both sides are creating more than they are conceding, but there isn’t a huge difference. For example, the difference between what AC Milan are creating and conceding is only 0.16. They are actually pretty lucky to be sitting at the top of the table! Juventus aren’t much different; their difference is only 0.19. We should have a very close game here, and we have an open betting heat too.
AC Milan are favourites at 2.38 with Juventus 3.4 and the draw is also trading 3.4 at the time of writing. AC Milan have definitely been better at home this season, and they have been more solid at the back too. We had a very entertaining 2-2 draw between these two in a pre-season friendly but usually we don’t see many goals. The four meetings before that pre-season game all had Under 2.5 goals, and AC Milan have won on three of the last four meetings they have had home advantage too. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 and it really is hard to see plenty of goals here. Neither side is banging down the door up front, and I really can’t see an open game here. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market, but the draw is a slightly tempting bet at 3.4. However, Under 2.5 goals stands out at the prices and this game screams a classic cagey Serie A game!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilJuv
BARCELONA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We go to La Liga to finish Sunday as Barcelona host Athletic Bilbao. Barcelona went into the International break having dropped points in two of their last three La Liga games, and they fell three points behind Real Madrid. We do have El Clasico coming up next weekend however, and that should be an absolute cracker. Only Real Madrid and Barcelona are averaging an xG created of over 2.0 in La Liga this season! While Athletic Bilbao aren’t performing at those levels, they have been pretty solid this season. They had the fifth best average xG created prior to this weekend, and they have been solid at the back too. Their average xG conceded is only 1.20 – compare that to Barcelona at 1.16. Barcelona have an excellent recent record against Athletic Bilbao; they’ve won the last three meetings including two 4-0 wins which have been the last two home games. Obviously Barcelona are playing at a different stadium this season though! Home advantage could prove to be a massive factor here; Athletic Bilbao have clearly had a few issues away from home this season.
At home Athletic Bilbao have been quite impressive, however away from home they are only creating an average xG of 1.26 and they are conceding marginally more chances. I would expect them to play a very cagey game here, but I also expect Barcelona to find a way through at some stage. I was surprised to see Barcelona trading as high as 1.7 when I clicked into the market. Athletic Bilbao are 5.4 while the draw is trading 4.1 at the time of writing. It’s been hard to fault Barcelona this season; at times they have given away some very sloppy goals away from home but you can’t help but be impressed with them going forward. With Bilbao not creating a lot of chances away from home, I feel the 1.7 is a handful of ticks too big and I’m happy to have a confident bet on the home win. Barcelona have a 100% record at home this season, they can make it five wins from five La Liga games here and outclass this Bilbao side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarBil
