SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN v DORTMUND, NAPOLI v INTER MILAN and BARCELONA v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V DORTMUND
4.30pm It’s a blockbuster Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! This is the best Sunday I’ve seen this season to be honest – we have some top class games from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. It’s hard to even pick the highlight today as Bayer Leverkusen clash with Dortmund, Napoli host Inter Milan and then Barcelona take on Atletico Madrid. All huge fixtures back-to-back! We kick off the day in the Bundesliga as Bayer Leverkusen host Dortmund. This is a massive test for Leverkusen who started the weekend sitting top of the table; I’m sure most football fans will expect Bayern Munich to take over at some stage, but for the time being Leverkusen are hanging on! The only points they have dropped this season is a draw with Bayern Munich, and they’ve been playing some excellent football too. Their average xG created is a very impressive 1.93 – that’s the second best figure behind Bayern Munich, and their average xG conceded is only 1.14 which is the third best figure in Germany. There’s no doubt about it; they’ve been playing some superb football.
It’s likely that Bayern will take over at some stage; they just seem a level above everyone else. If Leverkusen are actually going to believe that they can stop Bayern from extending their winning run of Bundesliga titles, they have to win games like this. Dortmund will always be a massive name in Germany, but it’s clear that Leverkusen have been playing better football. Dortmund’s average xG is a solid 1.63 and they are conceding an average xG of 1.40 – those figures are quite a bit of Leverkusen’s level. You can understand why Leverkusen come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.71, while Dortmund are trading 4.9 with the draw 4.6. A major issue here is Dortmund’s away performances – their average xG created drops to 1.33 away from home and they have been conceding a host of chances. Their average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.70! On paper, this is a massive clash but the under-lining numbers point to only one winner here. I would have Leverkusen shorter, and playing with such confidence they are worth a Max Bet at 1.71.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayer Leverkusen to beat Dortmund at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevDrt
NAPOLI V INTER MILAN
7.45pm Next we move to Serie A for a blockbuster as Napoli host Inter Milan. You could definitely argue that this is the highlight of the weekend, but we do have some cracking fixtures today as well! Although Napoli aren’t in the top two in the table, these are the best two sides in Serie A this season looking at the under-lining numbers. Juventus have grinded out a lot of results and that is to their credit, but these two are creating the most chances. Napoli start the game a whopping eight points behind Inter, but they are creating an average xG of 1.96 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A this season. Inter Milan are next best at 1.77, and then there’s quite a gap. Inter have been marginally better at the back – their average xG conceded is 0.99 which is the best record at the back in Serie A while Napoli’s is 1.14 which puts them in the top three. We should have a cracking game here, but it’s going to be more like chess really. We have two very solid sides, and it’s hard to see them going toe-to-toe from the start. We tend to have a cagey affair when these sides meet; only 41% of fixtures between them have ended with Over 2.5 goals. From the last nine meeting, Over 2.5 goals has only landed twice. I’m sure Under 2.5 goals will be a popular bet here at 2.09. I was actually very surprised to see it trading odds against.
To give you an idea of how far ahead of the rest these two have been this season, Napoli has an overall performance level is +0.82 and Inter has an overall figure of +0.78. Then the next best is +0.41, that’s quite a gap! There really shouldn’t be much between the sides, and we have a very open market. Inter Milan come into the game as favourites at 2.5 with Napoli 3.0 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. I have to say the 2.5 feels a little short on Inter in my opinion – I know Napoli haven’t quite got the results they have hoped for this season, but you can’t knock their performance levels. Both sides are top notch in fairness, and I can’t really pick holes in either. I would definitely be interested in the Inter lay at 2.5 just purely because I feel we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest. However, Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 2.09 – I would have it odds on looking at the stats above and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.09 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapItm
BARCELONA V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We move to La Liga to finish an intriguing Sunday as Barcelona host Atletico Madrid. It’s actually unfortunate that there is only 15 minutes between the kick off of Napoli v Inter Milan and this game, and we’ll have to flick between them! After Barcelona only managed a draw last weekend against Rayo Vallecano, these sides have the same amount of points as they start the weekend sitting in third and fourth. There’s a six point gap to fifth, so they don’t need to worry about their place in the top four anyway. Atletico Madrid do have a game in hand however, and they are both four points off Real Madrid as they start the weekend, with Real Madrid having a very easy (on paper) fixture against Granada this weekend. There’s no getting away from the fact that Barcelona have been playing the better football this season. Their average xG created is a very impressive 1.94 and they also have the best defensive record too with an average xG conceded of 1.18. Atletico have been getting the job done, but they haven’t been as good as Barcelona going forward – their average xG created is 1.60 which is still good, just not Barcelona good! They have been solid at the back too, their average xG conceded is the fourth best in La Liga so very solid at the back as you would expect under Diego Simeone.
With home advantage (their home this season anyway!), it’s no surprise Barcelona come into the game as the favourites. They aren’t odds on at the moment though, and are trading exactly evens at 2.0 with Atletico Madrid 4.0 and the draw is 3.85. Atletico Madrid did manage a win over Real Madrid already this season, but a key element of that was they had home advantage. Away from home they haven’t played as well; they are actually marginally conceding more chances than they are creating. That has to be a massive worry coming into this game, and I have no doubt that Simeone will set them up to be very cagey and make this game as difficult as possible for Barcelona to play their natural game. Despite being out of the Camp Nou, Barcelona have had an average xG of over 2.0 at home this season, and I would argue that they should be odds on here with home advantage. They’ve won the last three meetings between the sides, but five of the last six meetings have ended with Under 2.5 goals. That’s trading 2.12 here, and I would suggest that offers marginally better value than the Barcelona bet at 2.0. I feel that they are both good bets, but I just can’t see Atletico letting this game get very open and I don’t see many goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrcAtl
