SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s top European games with a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting in the Bundesliga with MAINZ v DORTMUND at 2.30pm.
MAINZ V DORTMUND
2.30pm We have been treated to some fantastic football around Europe lately and Sunday is no different on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have action from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A to enjoy today with some massive games. We start in the Bundesliga with Mainz hosting Dortmund. Unfortunately for Dortmund they dropped further points last weekend and they started this weekend eight points behind Bayern Munich. I don’t think there was ever a real “title race” but their chance of making it close looks gone now. The truth is Dortmund just haven’t been good enough this season, they have conceded too many sloppy goals – although their games have been very entertaining end-to-end games it just hasn’t been good for them. They like to play a very open game and that can backfire quite quickly when things go wrong as we saw with conceding four goals to Rangers in the Europa League first leg in Germany. Their 1-1 draw last weekend with Augsburg was probably their most boring game of the season! Both sides finished with xG figures of under 1 – usually you see something like 2.47 v 3.05 in Dortmund games!
Mainz have become your classic mid-table Bundesliga side over the last few seasons. They usually hang around between 9th and 13th, they can hold their own against the big boys but usually come up short and they get most of their points off the smaller sides. There is a stand out stat on Mainz this season however, and I feel they will give Dortmund a very good game here. On home form, Mainz sit in the top four while on away form they sit in the bottom four! There’s performances at home have been very different, and this is going to be hard work for Dortmund. I’m not sure their open tactics will work here and they do feel a little short at 1.78. I know Dortmund are the better side, and that they have the ability to outclass this Mainz side but Mainz have been rock solid at home. They beat Bayer Leverkusen in their last home game wo have been in top form recently and are just behind Dortmund in the table. Given the amount of chances Dortmund give away, this game is going to be closer than odds of 1.78 suggest and I’m happy to have a confident lay to start a brilliant day of action around Europe.
The Ultra Says:
Four points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Mainz at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMaiDor
ELCHE V BARCELONA
3.15pm Next we move to La Liga where we have a massive afternoon and evening in the top four race. Real Betis v Atletico Madrid is a huge game later in that sense, but Barcelona have to do their job here and get three points. There’s been a lot of talk recently that “Barcelona are back to themselves” but let’s be honest, they will likely never get back to the same level without Messi. It’s hard to see how they return there given the troubles at the club, but they are making progress and the signs are good. Xavi is doing a good job, and to be fair we all expected that he was the right man for the job as the players will respect him, he has the Barcelona passion and experience plus the fans love him. There will be tough times for Barcelona ahead, but they are doing the right things at the moment. Backing Barcelona this season has really been about picking your spots – they have been trading higher than usual but you’d expect that given the changes to the squad. I feel this is one time when the market has overreacted a little though to their recent form and they look a little too short here at 1.44. Elche were involved in the relegation race, but they are sitting comfortably in 13th now and they are a reasonably solid side. Barcelona should win, but I’m happy to skip past the 1.44 on Barcelona.
As I’m happy to overlook the match odds market here, the focus turns to the side markets for some value. Barcelona have been banging in the goals for fun recently with twelve goals in their last three games. Two of these games came away from home too which is a very positive sign considering Barcelona were struggling away from home at the start of the season. Over two thirds of Elche’s points have come at home this season however, and I don’t think this will be as easy as 1.44 suggests for Barcelona. Apart from the Real Madrid game when Real battered them but had to settle for a 2-2 draw, Elche tend to keep their games tight. The xG figures are usually low for Elche games, and they recently grinded out a 1-0 win over Villarreal here who were playing good football at the time – they conceded a bigger xG than they created, but that’s going to happen against the bigger sides. The markets are expecting goals here, and under 3.5 goals looks too big at 1.5. It’s tempting to go with under 2.5, but the 1.5 really catches my eye on the under 3.5.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQElcBar
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
7.45pm Next we move to Serie A for the highlight of the day as Napoli host AC Milan in a top of the table clash! Last weekend was a huge weekend for Napoli as AC Milan and Inter Milan both dropped points, they then went top of the table with a win over Lazio. Inter Milan started the weekend two points behind these two with a game in hand, so it’s fair to say that the loser of this fixture will be massively on the backfoot. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result for either side to be honest, but it would hand an advantage to AC Milan if they won their game in hand. AC Milan have been just as good away from home this season compared to at home, so while Napoli will see this as a fantastic chance to take charge over AC Milan in the title race, we should have a very close game here. Napoli have been playing very well lately apart from the 4-2 loss here to Barcelona in the Europa League. I feel the 2.2 on Napoli is too short in such a big game, and I wasn’t expecting to see them trading at odds like that when I clicked into the market. I expected a much more open betting heat.
I can understand the market however because AC Milan haven’t been at their best recently. The two draws against Udinese and Salenitana were very poor when you look at the xG figures – they only created 0.96 and 1.15. They actually haven’t been creating much at all recently, although they have had to play Juventus and Inter Milan in their last five games. The Inter game was very close, but they grinded out a very close 2-1 win and blew the title race wide open again. Napoli also met Inter very recently and although the game finished a draw here, Napoli were much the better side creating an xG of over double what Inter achieved. When I look at this game I can only see a very close and tense affair. There’s a couple of options on how to play this – I do feel Napoli are too short at 2.2 but the AC Milan form doesn’t inspire me to lay Napoli to be honest. The other option is under 2.5 goals which is trading 1.89 and that does look cracking value. Both sides come into this game not setting the world on fire up front and they are generally creating an xG figure of close to 1 per game – I really feel we’ll see a low scoring game here and the unders bet stands out.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNapAcm
REAL BETIS V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day with a massive fixture in the top four race as Real Betis host Atletico Madrid. Real Betis are having a dream season and are fighting for Champions League football. They started the weekend sitting in third position, however after their 2-1 loss to Sevilla last weekend they have never been under more pressure. They start today one point ahead of Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. If Barcelona beat Elche they will jump into third and they also have a game in hand on Real Betis, and then if Atletico Madrid win here that will knock Real Betis out of the top four in one day! After all their hard work they could see their dreams put on hold in the space of a few hours. While you have to admire Real Betis, their performances haven’t really truly justified being in the top four but given all the issues Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have had this season you can’t knock them for taking the opportunity. They made it into the Copa Del Rey Final midweek too with a goal in the 92nd minute in front of their own fans – that was a moment they won’t forget quickly!
You have to feel that this is the biggest game of the season so far for these two sides. Atletico would have been looking at Real Betis to drop out of that top four given the fact that Barcelona have had some great momentum recently and they also have a game in hand on Atletico too. The Sevilla loss has opened the door for Atletico, and now a win here would really be a kick in the teeth for Betis. I wouldn’t go as far to say that this is a “must win” game for Atletico, but it’s pretty damn important. For Betis, it’s more or less the same feeling except they would be happy with a draw and move onto the next fixture. Atletico have dropped a lot of points this season and they have given away some sloppy goals – Betis will be hopeful this continues but Atletico haven’t been playing bad football, they have been pretty unlucky. They usually create a higher xG figure than the team they are playing but give away a terrible goal at some stage. It all comes down to the odds here and based on pure performance this season, Atletico are the all for me at 2.48. Betis have been lucky to be where they are – they aren’t even in the top six on the home form table, while the xG table puts Atletico up into second. Atletico can record a massive win here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Atletico Madrid to beat Real Betis at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBetAtl
