SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v ATALANTA, REAL MADRID v CELTA VIGO and FIORENTINA v ROMA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V ATALANTA
5pm It’s a Sunday from Europe right out of the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have some cracking action from Serie A and La Liga with Juventus, Real Madrid and Roma all in action. We kick off the day in Serie A with Juventus hosting Atalanta. While most football fans, especially xG form students, were expecting Juventus to drop off the pace in the title race at some stage, their fall in recent weeks has been quite dramatic. Only one win from their last six games leaves them starting this matchday a whopping 15 points behind Inter Milan; that’s the title race over. Given the gulf in class performance level wise between Inter Milan and Juventus this season, I would have said they’d struggle to close a two point gap never mind a 15 point gap! They are in more danger of overtaken by AC Milan now. Atalanta have also struggled in recent weeks; they’ve gone three games without a win now. They have had a very difficult fixture list in fairness to them, a draw with AC Milan followed by losses to Inter Milan and Bologna. That loss last weekend to Bologna was a massive blow in the top four race; they started this weekend five points behind Bologna who sit in fourth and Roma have overtaken Atalanta too.
Juventus come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.36 with Atalanta 3.55 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Both sides are in need of a win here given their recent runs, but it’s definitely a more important game for Atalanta. For Juve, the title is gone but they are still nailed on for a top four spot. Atalanta are in danger of slipping down the table and missing out on Europe; I was actually surprised to see Juventus trading as short as 2.36 when I clicked into the market. I thought we’d have a much more open betting heat; although I fully accept the fact that Juventus have been a much better side at home this season. That being said, Atalanta have been creating more than Juventus this season – they have the third highest average xG created in Serie A. Juventus are marginally better at the back, but there’s not much in it at all, only 0.03. I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and I’m happy with the Juventus lay at 2.36 from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Juventus to beat Atalanta at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvAtn
REAL MADRID V CELTA VIGO
5.30pm We move over to La Liga next as league leaders Real Madrid host Celta Vigo. Real Madrid were involved in exceptionally high drama last weekend in their 2-2 draw against Valencia. To start with, they were 2-0 down but battled back to 2-2 heading into injury time. They were on the attacking when the referee blew the whistle and after a cross Jude Bellingham ending up scoring. Cue absolutely carnage, Bellingham ended up getting sent off and everything. As always with these things there’s always a big debate, and opinions usually follow who people support rather than facts! Even with that drama, it was still a good weekend for Real because Girona lost meaning they start this matchday with a seven point lead at the top of the table. That’s a very nice cushion to have at this stage of the season, and they also got through to the Champions League Quarter-Finals during the week. They drew 1-1 here with RB Leipzig, but they had lead 1-0 from the first leg. This is game that they’ll be fully expected to win; Celta Vigo are in the relegation battle and started the weekend sitting in 17th. They do have a nice five point cushion over Cadiz in 18th though after their win last weekend against Almeria.
That was a huge game for Celta, they had home advantage and obviously Almeria have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season. Celta Vigo actually have decent under-lining numbers; their average xG created is 1.33 which is basically mid-table level in La Liga. They aren’t conceding many chances over that too; just 0.06 higher. Why they find themselves in the relegation battle is that they aren’t taking their chances, and they are conceding more than they should. Not ideal against the best side in the league, and one of the best in Europe! Real Madrid are trading as short as 1.32 here with Celta Vigo 11.0 and the draw is 6.4 at the time of writing. I have to say that 1.32 feels very short, Celta haven’t been that bad this season – I felt the same about Sevilla recently when they played here. Real won that game 1-0 so we lost our lay bet, and I’m going to opt for the handicap opinion here. Celta can keep the score line respectable, and they are worth backing at 2.06 +1.5 goals.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Celta Vigo +1.5 goals to beat Real Madrid at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaClt
FIORENTINA V ROMA
7.45pm We move back to Serie A to finish a cracking Sunday as Fiorentina host Roma. This is definitely the most competitive game of the day, and we have an exceptionally open market too. Fiorentina are the favourites but there’s only ten ticks between the sides – the home win is trading 2.8 with Roma 2.9 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Roma continued to impress after the sacking of Jose Mourinho with a 4-0 demolition of Brighton in the Europa League on Thursday night; talk about putting the tie to bed early! Obviously Brighton have had a lot of issues at the back this season, but Roma ook full advantage and they have been scoring lots of goals since Mourinho left. Roma had one of the lowest average xG’s created when Mourinho was there, in my opinion that was the main reason for his sacking but since he’s gone – and it was a very surprising sacking – Roma have been a totally new side. They have jumped up into fifth and started the weekend sitting just four points behind Bologna. Suddenly they could end up with Champions League football.
It will be fascinating to see how they deal with Fiorentina here who have been very solid this season. Although Roma have jumped into the top four battle, Fiorentina are only five points behind them – they aren’t really top four level at all but a Europa Conference League spot would be their level. At home this season they have been exceptionally impressive though. Their average xG created at home is 1.67 and their average conceded is as low as 1.03. They’ve only lost three times here this season, and two of those came against Inter Milan and Juventus so Roma face a massive task here. They are in incredible form though, and playing with a huge amount of confidence too. It’s six wins from seven games since Mourinho went, the only blip coming against Inter Milan too who have been exceptional. I fully respect the Fiorentina home form here, and I also agree with the market that we’ll have a very close game. In my opinion the draw looks very nice value at 3.35 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FirRom
