SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews WOLFSBURG v BAYERN MUNICH, REAL MADRID v REAL VALLADOLID and ATLETICO MADRID v GIRONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLFSBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have a wonderful Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Bayern Munich are in action in the Bundesliga followed by Real Madrid and then Atletico Madrid host Girona in a fascinating end to the day. We kick off the action with Wolfsburg hosting Bayern Munich. This is a massive season for Bayern; they lost the Bundesliga title for the first time in eleven years last season to Bayer Leverkusen. They have managed to keep Xabi Alonso so Bayern should have another battle on their hands – maybe Harry Kane is really cursed for winning a trophy after his time at Spurs! Bayern can have no complaints really with how last season went; Bayer Leverkusen were just the better side – they finished with a higher xG created and conceded. Bayern Munich have to focus on being a little bit more solid at the back, and some of the fans haven’t been happy with the transfer business in that regard over the summer. It will be interesting to see their opening few performances; for once they are under pressure from the start of the season. At the start of last season, everyone just expected another routine title win!
They will be expected to get their season off to a winning start here, and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Bayern Munich are trading 1.49 with Wolfsburg 7.0 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. After finishing fourth and getting Champions League football in 2020/21, Wolfsburg have been going backwards for a while now. They have turned into a bang average mid-table side now – their average created and conceded xG figures were mid-table last season and you’d expect the same again this season. An average xG created of 1.35 won’t really trouble a side like Bayern, and I was surprised to see the away win trading as high as 1.49 when I clicked into the market. I’m not going to get carried away with the stakes because it’s the opening weekend of the Bundesliga season, but the 1.49 on Bayern is too big to ignore and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Wolfsburg at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlfByn
REAL MADRID V REAL VALLADOLID
4pm Next we move over to La Liga for one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend as Real Madrid host Real Valladolid. Real Madrid come into this game trading as short as 1.18 which is the shortest price in La Liga this weekend by a distance. If you fancy a shock – and it would be a massive shock – then Real Valladolid are trading 18.5 with the draw at 9.2. There’s been a huge amount of fanfare around Real Madrid coming into this season with the arrival of Mbappe, but they got off to a poor start when dropping points against Mallorca last weekend. Only four sides actually won on the opening weekend of La Liga, and remarkably Real Valladolid were one of them as they beat Espanyol. It’s fair to say most football fans will be expecting Valladolid to struggle again this season after coming up from the Segunda – they did bounce back up to La Liga quickly in fairness but their sole aim this season will be staying up. In that regard, an away fixture against Real Madrid won’t have a huge impact – that win over another likely regelation candidate Espanyol is massive.
With Real trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets here. This is all about how many goals Real score rather than will they actually win in my opinion – when Valladolid went down in 2022/23 they finished that season with the joint-worst defensive figure in La Liga. Obviously they have done well to bounce back up, but with the money these days in the top leagues we all know how big the gulf in class is between the top leagues and the second tier now. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.42, and I have to say I was a little surprised to see that trading so high when I clicked into the market. I expected to see it closer to 1.35 compared to over 1.4 – and I’m very happy to have a confident bet on Overs at the odds. Another bet of interest is Any Other Home Win in the Correct Score market at 3.1, but I’m happy with Overs at 1.42!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaVld
ATLETICO MADRID V GIRONA
8.30pm We stay in La Liga to finish Sunday with a cracker as Atletico Madrid host Girona! This is the most interesting fixture of the weekend in my opinion – we had Girona almost take the spot of Atletico last season coming close to being involved in the title race and finishing in that third spot. Any fan of xG figures will know that they massively over-performed however, but Atletico will want to stick down a marker here that cracking the “top three” in Spain was just a blip. Both sides opened their season with a draw last weekend; Atletico were held to a 2-2 draw at Villarreal while Girona played out a 1-1 at Real Betis – both sides would have been disappointed. It’s a reflection of how data driven football has become these days that Atletico come into the game as the odds on favourites – a casual football fan might have expected a very open betting heat here with Girona finishing ahead of Atletico last season. Atletico Madrid are trading 1.66 with Girona 5.6 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. While they finished with plenty of points, Girona were actually quite poor performance wise away from home last season.
Their average xG conceded away was 1.62 and they created less than that at 1.38. Over the course of the season, they were the most over-performing side by a distance. The market is expecting their results to fall more in line with their performance levels this season! For example, their average xG created last season was 1.5 but their actual goals scored average was as high as 2.24 – plus they over-performed at the back too! Atletico fans celebrated the arrival of Conor Gallagher this week, and that signing has definitely brought a buzz around the club. I was hoping to see a bigger price on Atletico, but I still feel that the 1.66 offers value on the home win. There’s just so many red flags with the performance levels of Girona away from home, I’m very happy to be against them. Atletico were quite sloppy at the back last season, and I want to see improvement from them in that department so I’m happy to keep stakes small here, but we should finish the weekend with a home win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Atletico Madrid to beat Girona at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AltGrn
